whats going to happen in years to come with interest only mortgages?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Was that before or after it jumped up 20k in a single month due to "new methology"?

After.

The change form DCLG to ONS is more than 1 year old. And Acadametrics and Land Registry quarterly show similar rises, and they haven't changed methodology in years.

Heck, Nationwide is almost up 10K since winter for that matter. Now through 170K.

shortchanged_2

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

ONS and Acadametrics are both there or thereabouts. Actually ONS is 235K now, but was 225K a year ago.

As is the Land Registry Quarterly series.

Because they all actually do provide an average house price, either asking or sold.



Haliwide and LR monthly are not average house prices.

Haliwide uses hedonic regression to provide a "typical" house price, and LR monthly uses Repeat sales regression.

And Haliwide is now 170K, BTW.

Right..........So the Land Registry, which most class as the most accurate has an average price around £161K at the moment.

Where does this average of 225-235K come from because that is one hell of a difference. Please explain.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

shortchanged wrote: »

Right..........So the Land Registry, which most class as the most accurate has an average price around £161K at the moment.

Where does this average of 225-235K come from because that is one hell of a difference. Please explain.

How is it possible you can spend so much time on housing boards and not know this?

shortchanged_2

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

8 years.

2012 to 2020.

And yes, I do.

It's up 10K in the last year already, despite ongoing mortgage rationing, high unemployment, a depressed economy, etc, so only another 65K to go in the next 7 years.

But builders are going to build loads more house as 'mortgage rationing' eases, so the huge increase in supply should supress any massive HPI.

System

We are into the 6th year of arguing about house prices and people still haven't taken the time to understand how the indices work.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Astonishingly, the Land Registry’s monthly figures are hugely understating the average price paid for a property in England and Wales.

That is because thanks to the wonders of statistical manipulation, it opts to keep all new-build sales out of its monthly report calculations.

If you want to actually find a report that does include all residential property transactions – and thus paints a far truer picture of what people are paying for property – you have to go to the Land Registry’s quarterly report.

The most recent quarterly report puts the average house price paid at £249,958, So that’s only a huge £87,878 gulf between the two.

Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-2270763/How-Land-Registry-undercooks-house-prices-90k.html#ixzz2YgK0LZI5

Thrugelmir

Originally Posted by HAMISH_MCTAVISH
Versus average house price in 2012 of circa £225,000



Versus average house price in 2020 of, in all likelihood, circa £300,000....



Indeed.

Like how many hundreds of thousands of pounds will they be better off through buying on I/O rather than renting for the same time?

Will it be £300,000?

Or £200,000?

Or perhaps only a measly £150,000?

You are overlooking the fact that these mortgages will require refinancing. Increased house prices merely add to the problem you regular highlight..... mortgage rationing. As UKAR is carrying a considerable amount of the poor quality debt and isn't offering new products either. Be little demand to take this on by the mainstream lenders.

shortchanged_2

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

How is it possible you can spend so much time on housing boards and not know this?

I suppose I've never really looked at it in detail because when you have such a massive difference in 'averages' for things which are supposed to recording the same data it just seems like bizarre detailing of the facts.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

shortchanged wrote: »

But builders are going to build loads more house as 'mortgage rationing' eases,

Indeed they are.

But they can't possibly build enough now to keep prices in check.

Your beloved mortgage rationing and crash has now guaranteed that.

The next boom is now locked in. It can't be stopped.

We needed to build 250,000 a year every year for the last 15 years, just to keep HPI down to inflation +1% in the long run.

We didn't build that many in a single year during that period, and now have a million house shortage, worsening by 150,000 houses a year.

The next boom is gonna be a big one....

so the huge increase in supply should supress any massive HPI.

Wow, you really don't get it, do you?

Oh this is going to be fun.....:rotfl:

shortchanged_2

Saying that Hamish the more you argue for the case of the average price being the circa £230K mark the more you realise how ridiculously overpriced property is in relation to average earnings.

So for someone who constantly argues that property is artificially cheap at the moment. Can you please explain how people are going to afford these property prices in 2020 without a return to loose lending?