UK to climb the league tables of richest countries...says some stupid bank

chewmylegoff

http://www.willembuiter.com/3G.pdf

Page 47 of this report has an interesting table which appears to predict long term economic resurgence for the uk. It doesn't explain why we will catapult ourselves up from obscurity up to 8th in the world in GDP per capita terms, so would be interested to know if anyone can explain this. It is nice to know at least someone doesn't think we're all doomed. My guess is that DLW's version of this report has us at #1 in 2050 with gdp per capita of £1,000,000,000,000,000 after 7 consecutive labour governments headed by milliballs.

Generali

Does milliballs mean a man with very small testicles?

It is safe to say that reports like this are what we economists like to call 'rubbish' or indeed 'milliballs'.

the_flying_pig

Reading between the lines it's all about our pwoperdee. Other countries build too many houses. By 2040 a single uk house will be worth ten thousand barrels of Saudi oil, rather than the couple of thousand that it is now. We'll be ex exporting them in their millions to the strengthening Asian economies. We'll be, rather than the workshop as in days gone by, the estate agency of the world.

the_flying_pig

I only skim read it but I suspect uk's relative forecast climb is down to:

1 - a couple of genuinely important factors such as someone like Norway running out of oil, and hence slipping down the table; and

2 - a couple of BS, ultra-simplistic, forecasting assumptions... e.g. UK currently has just about the highest service sector % of GDP and one of the highest degree education rates... My educated guess is that buiter's forecasting model takes stuff like this and translates it into massive service sector export growth to fast-growing new economies.

StevieJ

chewmylegoff wrote: »

http://www.willembuiter.com/3G.pdf

Page 47 of this report has an interesting table which appears to predict long term economic resurgence for the uk. It doesn't explain why we will catapult ourselves up from obscurity up to 8th in the world in GDP per capita terms, so would be interested to know if anyone can explain this. It is nice to know at least someone doesn't think we're all doomed. My guess is that DLW's version of this report has us at #1 in 2050 with gdp per capita of £1,000,000,000,000,000 after 7 consecutive labour governments headed by milliballs.

Maybe we start to monetise our inventive genius as a nation, just a thought

A study by MITI - Japan's equivalent of the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) - concluded that 54% of the world's most important inventions were British. Of the rest, 25% were American and 5% Japanese.

http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Which_country_has_produced_the_most_inventions

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

The majority of reports in recent year with a similar outcome, ie, that the UK will improve economically relative to our peers, have identified immigration as a causal factor.

We are not forecast to suffer from the same level of economic decline due to an ageing population and shrinking workforce as many other countries, because we have (and continue to) benefit from more immigration of younger people.

vivatifosi

I love the chart on page 10. This should appeal to anyone who says that time series data sets are not inclusive enough as it goes back to AD01. Personally I'm a tad surprised that there was no overall data spike around the time of the Renaissance given the changes going on then. Or that economic growth was so low under the Romans that there's no discernable difference between their time and the dark ages. No wonder Italy is in such a state now - so many wasted chances (said with tongue planted firmly in cheek).

purch

Ebrahim Rahbari & Deimante Kupciuniene

they just have to be made up names.... :rotfl: