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Britain didn't have a double dip recession after all
HAMISH_MCTAVISH
Posts: 28,592 Forumite
Britain never had a double-dip recession, says top economist Simon Ward
Forget a triple-dip recession, there hasn’t even been a double-dip in the UK onshore economy, said Henderson Global Investors' chief economist Simon Ward following the latest growth figures.
Well that would at least explain some of the better than expected job numbers.
Mr Ward said North Sea oil production is supply-driven, and while it has been weak because of reserves depletion and unusual maintenance shutdowns, "these are of no relevance to the wider economy so it is reasonable to strip out the North Sea when assessing underlying trends".
The quarterly changes in non-oil GDP between the third quarter of 2011 and the third quarter of 2012 are now as follows: +0.6pc, -0.2pc, 0pc, -0.3pc and +1pc, Mr Ward notes. A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.
“The 0.3pc fall in the second quarter of last year was entirely due to an additional bank holiday so there was a genuine decline in only one quarter – the fourth quarter of 2011,” Mr Ward said.
“The onshore economy, in other words, never “double dipped” in late 2011 / early 2012, in the conventionally-understood sense of recording successive quarterly contractions.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/9897571/Britain-never-had-a-double-dip-recession-says-top-economist-Simon-Ward.html
“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”
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Comments
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Thanks for letting us know this Hamish. I certainly feel all the richer for it.0
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So we merely flatlined allowing for statistical error, I am sure the general public don't see it that way.
Like benefits realisation in projects lets scrape around for all the arms and legs we can to justify it.
I am surprised that North Sea production "are of no relevance to the wider economy"."If you act like an illiterate man, your learning will never stop... Being uneducated, you have no fear of the future.".....
"big business is parasitic, like a mosquito, whereas I prefer the lighter touch, like that of a butterfly. "A butterfly can suck honey from the flower without damaging it," "Arunachalam Muruganantham0 -
grizzly1911 wrote: »I am surprised that North Sea production "are of no relevance to the wider economy".
I think the point he's making, is that in what most people think of as the economy, ie, the economic activities of businesses and government within the UK, there wasn't a recession.
There was if you include a notional figure for the amount of oil pumped around hundreds of miles offshore.
But that's not something that most people will ever notice or care about.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
Just because -0.2, 0, -0.3 isn't technically a recession doesnt stop it being a recession to anyone with an ounce of common sense.Faith, hope, charity, these three; but the greatest of these is charity.0
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When the first paragraph starts by describing the UK "Onshore economy" instead of just the UK, or economy, it worries me a little.
We did have a double dip recession, as defined. That definition doesn't change because of the years overal growth or lack of.
2 quarters defines a recession or not, not the years growth figure as a whole.
If we pick and choose what we include in the measurements, of course you can make any case you like, which the article the OP posted has done.0 -
Just because -0.2, 0, -0.3 isn't technically a recession doesnt stop it being a recession to anyone with an ounce of common sense.
Common sense is rarely either.
"The 0.3pc fall in the second quarter of last year was entirely due to an additional bank holiday so there was a genuine decline in only one quarter – the fourth quarter of 2011,”“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Common sense is rarely either.
"The 0.3pc fall in the second quarter of last year was entirely due to an additional bank holiday so there was a genuine decline in only one quarter – the fourth quarter of 2011,”
What about the extra day due to the leap year?
It's OK to exclude a day because of a bank holiday, but surel you too have to reference the extra day in February due to a leap year?0 -
Graham_Devon wrote: »When the first paragraph starts by describing the UK "Onshore economy" instead of just the UK, or economy, it worries me a little.
We did have a recession, as defined.
Sure.
But the fact is that we also didn't have a recession in the onshore economy, ie, the economy that most people would interact with.
Hence why things like job creation have outperformed expectations.
I agree that when you include the amount of oil pumped around hundreds of miles offshore, so the technical definition, we had a (very small) recession.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Sure.
But the fact is that we also didn't have a recession in the onshore economy, ie, the economy that most people would interact with.
Hence why things like job creation have outperformed expectations.
I agree that when you include the amount of oil pumped around hundreds of miles offshore, so the technical definition, we had a (very small) recession.
OK, well, we agree then.
Though if you are removing the offshore part of the economy to suggest we didn't have an "onshore" recession, wouldn't it also be wise to remove construction....and indeed any other part of the economy which fell back?
We could have pretty nice growth then!0 -
Don't forget, if the only thing you buy is flat screen TVs inflation has been negative as well
I think....0
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