Scots in denial over house price falls

SecondLegDownIsTheBigOne

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/scots-in-denial-over-fall-in-house-prices.16228325

Any Scots in denial here?

DervProf

SecondLegDownIsTheBigOne wrote: »

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/scots-in-denial-over-fall-in-house-prices.16228325

Any Scots in denial here?

They'll deny it.

IveSeenTheLight

SecondLegDownIsTheBigOne wrote: »

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/scots-in-denial-over-fall-in-house-prices.16228325

Any Scots in denial here?

not sure about being in denial.

i do prefer to use the ROSEA figures (Scottish Equivalent to Land Registry) than HBOS.

the ROSEA is showing the following: -



When you consider that the ROSEA does not mix adjust, the reduction in transaction levels and also factor in over a longer period, my interpretation is that Sctland as a whole has relatively stagnated over the last 4 1/2 years, with some months up and some months down on those non mix adjusted low transaction data.

I'm not inclined to believe that prices have crashed and recovered £20k in a few months

ruggedtoast

Considering Scotland is going to be independent by 2015, which means without the civilising influence of the English, by 2017 everything north of Newcastle is going to be a disastrous wasteland full of semi naked, woad-stained tribes people, running around hollering, throwing rocks at one another and clubbing sheep over the head with their fists; I would predict an overall downward trend for Scottish house prices.

ILW

ruggedtoast wrote: »

Considering Scotland is going to be independent by 2015, which means without the civilising influence of the English, by 2017 everything north of Newcastle is going to be a disastrous wasteland full of semi naked, woad-stained tribes people, running around hollering, throwing rocks at one another and clubbing sheep over the head with their fists; I would predict an overall downward trend for Scottish house prices.

Only the pretty ones.

It can get lonely north of the border.

thistledome

ruggedtoast wrote: »

Considering Scotland is going to be independent by 2015, which means without the civilising influence of the English,

They should start with their own country first; that's if there's any English people left in it :rotfl:

brit1234

SecondLegDownIsTheBigOne wrote: »

Any Scots in denial here?

Hamish has been ever since he joined and was kicked out of HPC.:rotfl:

geneer

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

not sure about being in denial.

i do prefer to use the ROSEA figures (Scottish Equivalent to Land Registry) than HBOS.

the ROSEA is showing the following: -



When you consider that the ROSEA does not mix adjust, the reduction in transaction levels and also factor in over a longer period, my interpretation is that Sctland as a whole has relatively stagnated over the last 4 1/2 years, with some months up and some months down on those non mix adjusted low transaction data.

I'm not inclined to believe that prices have crashed and recovered £20k in a few months

But your interpretation of stagnation is prices fluctuating up and bown by £25K to £30K 3 or 4 times.

And using the same highly scientific assesment you will no doubt conclude that this is a lovely calm sea.




Really, what you really mean is, you prefer the price spikes.
Which is a shame, as the reality of the same has been much discussed.

Benjamin123

I once knew a wee Scottish bloke who was in total denial.

He bought a house in Edinburgh in 2009 (apparently;)) yet was adament that this was after a HPC.........alas the stats show house prices were way above historical norms in 2009 e.g 3.5 x average salary....

house prices after a house price crash are meant to be below long term trends (unless your definition of a HPC is high house prices):)

Kind Regards

Benjamin

geneer

Seems like its going to be a balmy 6 degrees on Christmas day.
Maybe January will bring snow.

IveSeenTheLight

geneer wrote: »

But your interpretation of stagnation is prices fluctuating up and bown by £25K to £30K 3 or 4 times.

And using the same highly scientific assesment you will no doubt conclude that this is a lovely calm sea.




Really, what you really mean is, you prefer the price spikes.
Which is a shame, as the reality of the same has been much discussed.

Context and analysis geneer, context and analysis.

When you understand the methodology that is behind the data, you understand that the individual monthly results can be extremely noisy, especially with the low transactions that can affect the individual monthly results.

Do you really believe that prices have fluctuated on average £20k - £30k over a few months?

Nevermind, the eternal optimist in me believes that one day the penny will drop for you.