Manufacturing up!

lemonjelly

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15149683

A suprise apparently.
August has also been revised up by 0.5% (though remains below the 50% target).

Suprised it isn't being shouted about here.

First rise for 3 months...are these green shoots?

ess0two

Good news does'nt bode well in this place.

Graham_Devon

I'll be jumped on for stating this, as I realise we are only supposed to see "up" and start celebrating.

However, the figures are up, because factories were clearing the backlogs of work they had. So this isn't great news, as they were able to fit the backlog in, but it has made the figures for the month look better.

Markets also don't like it, as this "good news" may have the effect of holding off QE for another month, and markets want QE this month really.

Just saying it how it is, after reading past the first paragraph of this from a broadsheet paper.

wotsthat

It is good news. Not sure we need to have a street party to celebrate but it could be worse.

Conrad

Graham_Devon wrote: »

However, the figures are up, because factories were clearing the backlogs of work they had. So this isn't great news,

Cognitive dissonance again Graham.

Why are you filtering out some of the facts and evidence and only upholding that which fits your world view?

Does it not bother you that you do this?:p

chewmylegoff

Graham_Devon wrote: »

However, the figures are up, because factories were clearing the backlogs of work they had. So this isn't great news, as they were able to fit the backlog in, but it has made the figures for the month look better.

i'm having some difficulty understanding what you are trying to articulate here.

where did this backlog come from, and what are you saying the effect of it was?

you seem to be saying that factories were only running at a certain percentage of capacity and that meant that somehow a backlog (which has arisen during a period of consistent shrinkage and falling orders - but at a time when there was not the same capacity in the factories that there was this month) has been processed during this month, and this has somehow made it look like manufacturing is growing when it is not (when it was shrinking before, whilst this backlog built up).

i'm sure this can't be what you are saying, because it makes no sense at all, so what is your point?

Thrugelmir

chewmylegoff wrote: »

you seem to be saying that factories were only running at a certain percentage of capacity

Honda Swindon is back at at normal working capacity following resumption of supply of component parts from Japan.

Figures don't necessarily mean that there is an underlying capacity to increase output.

Graham_Devon

chewmylegoff wrote: »

i'm having some difficulty understanding what you are trying to articulate here.

where did this backlog come from, and what are you saying the effect of it was?

you seem to be saying that factories were only running at a certain percentage of capacity and that meant that somehow a backlog (which has arisen during a period of consistent shrinkage and falling orders - but at a time when there was not the same capacity in the factories that there was this month) has been processed during this month, and this has somehow made it look like manufacturing is growing when it is not (when it was shrinking before, whilst this backlog built up).

i'm sure this can't be what you are saying, because it makes no sense at all, so what is your point?

An article on it is here:

Before we get on to that subject, it is worth noting that the purchasing managers survey was a bit less good than it looked. To be sure, output rose but only because factories cleared their backlog of work. New orders, although also up a bit, remain hard to come by, especially from overseas. What's more, today's modest improvement does not really compensate for the poor performance of industry in previous months. According to Samuel Tombs, UK analyst at Capital Economics, the PMIs for the third quarter of 2011 are consistent with a drop in manufacturing output of as much as 1%, bigger than the 0.2% drop in the second quarter.

Knew I'd get stick for mentioning it.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/economics-blog/2011/oct/03/economics-manufacturingdata

There are more indepth articles around, but I'm not going to go hunting for them.

I'm not trying to pour water on the figures. Just stating what the figures are made up of. As it's not new orders, or a higher level of orders. It's as it states in the article. A clearance of a backlog, which has increased output.

I'm sorry if this offends, but it's reality.

chewmylegoff

Graham_Devon wrote: »

An article on it is here:

Knew I'd get stick for mentioning it.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/economics-blog/2011/oct/03/economics-manufacturingdata

There are more indepth articles around, but I'm not going to go hunting for them.

I'm not trying to pour water on the figures. Just stating what the figures are made up of. As it's not new orders, or a higher level of orders. It's as it states in the article. A clearance of a backlog, which has increased output.

I'm sorry if this offends, but it's reality.

how did i give you stick - i just asked you to articulate it more because the brief sentence you posted didn't appear to make much sense, at least to me anyway. no need to get all defensive.

Graham_Devon

chewmylegoff wrote: »

how did i give you stick - i just asked you to articulate it more because the brief sentence you posted didn't appear to make much sense, at least to me anyway. no need to get all defensive.

Well the last paragraph appeared to be doing just what you are suggesting you didn't do.

Asking "whats your point" etc in that tone and saying what I'm reporting doesn't stack up in such tone isn't quite how I'd ask for a further explanation.

chewmylegoff

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Well the last paragraph appeared to be doing just what you are suggesting you didn't do.

Asking "whats your point" etc in that tone and saying what I'm reporting doesn't stack up in such tone isn't quite how I'd ask for a further explanation.

sorry, didn't realise you were so sensitive. next time i'll put a smiley at the end shall i? ~~(**[hugs]**) ~~