OECD predict "slowdown"

lemonjelly

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14835950

Generally a worldwide slowdown of major economies.

I didn't think we could get much slower, especially after recent downward revisions, even by our george. Therefore are we now at a greater risk of slipping back into recession?

The OECD expects 0.3% growth in the UK in the last three months of the year, but said the economy could contract by as much as 1% amid high uncertainty over its projections.
It predicts the Group of Seven largest economies will grow by just 0.2%.

:eek:

It estimated the German economy would contract by 1.4% in the last quarter of 2011.

:eek:

& in order to prevent the arguements about figures etc:

The OECD's GDP figures are both seasonally adjusted and account for inflation.

Some UK margin, growth of 0.2%, or a fall of up to 1%. Seems to me, alongside the recent downward revisions, together with the lack of confidence in markets etc, and consumer confidence not rising that we're going backwards. For me, the big issue was the fall in exports, as that was the major thing keeping our heads above water.

Thoughts?

Joe_Bloggs

It just goes to show how inaccurate economic predictions are. My suspicions are on the tasseographic method in use.

Let us all hope for a mild winter. If it snows then there could be a double dip recession.
J_B.

TruckerT

As a fully-signed-up member of the Random Guesswork school of economics, these predictions don't worry me at all

A harsh winter should lead to increased sales of salt, so stock up now...

TruckerT

ess0two

Get the IR's up,that'll sort this mess.

TruckerT

worldtraveller wrote: »

Yes! But it's not just a risk. IMHO it will happen, as I've been saying that it will for over a year now.

What is the cut-off date for your year-old prediction?

Does your prediction qualify as 'economic advice'?

TruckerT

worldtraveller

TruckerT wrote: »

What is the cut-off date for your year-old prediction?

Does your prediction qualify as 'economic advice'?

TruckerT

What you need to understand is that very little in the economic world happens quickly. However, it generally does happen in cycles. Yes, my personal view about a year ago was that we would have a double dip recession and I have maintained that view in any similar posts ever since. It's not going to happen overnight. What's more, at the same time, I said that a triple dip (or possibly more) is also possible, and maintain that view. The limited upward growth in between largely being based on QE, but within a general, longer term downturn.

As for it being 'economic advice', of course it's not! It's purely a personal view.

TruckerT

worldtraveller wrote: »

What you need to understand is that very little in the economic world happens quickly. However, it generally does happen in cycles. As for it being 'economic advice', of course it's not! It's purely a personal view.

The banking collapse happened very quickly indeed, and it was not part of any known cycle

All economics is a personal view - there is no science to support any of it

TruckerT

worldtraveller

TruckerT wrote: »

The banking collapse happened very quickly indeed, and it was not part of any known cycle

All economics is a personal view - there is no science to support any of it

TruckerT

Some would disagree. The banking collapse was expected by a lot of people who understood derivatives and the massive trade in those since the 1980's. The tipping point was largely a huge default in the U.S., but only a tiny default was actually necessary to cause a massive crash. It was part of a boom-bust cycle.

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=12218327&postcount=14

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=12295533&postcount=24

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=12505221&postcount=5

Loughton_Monkey

Joe_Bloggs wrote: »

It just goes to show how inaccurate economic predictions are. My suspicions are on the tasseographic method in use.

Let us all hope for a mild winter. If it snows then there could be a double dip recession.
J_B.

This method is far too flakey for me. Nothing wrong with the good old end-of-pier Gypsy Rose Lee and her crystal ball.

I went to her in about 1967, aged about 18, wanting to know my fate. She looked into her enormous crystal ball and told me that I would never have children. She nudged the ball. It rolled into my lap, and I fell on the floor with pain.

However, the lady was right!

Sadly, she didn't tell me the precise GNP figure for Q4 2011, otherwise I would share it with you all.

TruckerT

worldtraveller wrote: »

The banking collapse was expected by a lot of people who understood derivatives and the massive trade in those since the 1980's[URL="http://"][/URL]

But when it happened it was a big surprise, maybe the only people who understood derivatives were the guys who were raking in the money...

TruckerT