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Advice needed on Tax Credits/Self Employment

Hi,

I'm hoping you can give me some advice?

I'm currently in the process of starting up my own business working from home. I have two children and receive child tax credit. My query is, I need to inform HMRC what I predict my earnings are going to be and how many hours I will be working. Firstly, I have no idea what this figure is likely to be initially as I have nothing to really base it on yet so it's a bit like plucking a figure out of the air. I do not invision to make much at all at the moment, especially in the first 6-12 months. I have been advised that it is better to over estimate then under estimate to avoid owing money at the end of the tax year. However, my worry is that if I over estimate and they drastically reduce the tax credits I currently receive, I may not be able to earn enough each month to make up the difference. I want to be totally honest in the figures I give but I'm not sure what to do for the best?
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