Debate House Prices


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Estate agents report surge in houses up for sale (and failing to sell)

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Comments

  • Lending at 125% LTV in the north of England. ;)

    This is probably still relatively risk free, provided you ensure that the amount borrowed is no more than 7 times joint income.
  • Graham_Devon
    Graham_Devon Posts: 58,560 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    Pimperne1 wrote: »
    Looks like a template for an increase in prices.

    All your "templates" say the same thing, don't they?
  • Pimperne1
    Pimperne1 Posts: 2,177 Forumite
    geneer wrote: »
    Sorry Pimp. As stated, I'm can't see how you've concluded from mortgage approvals that there are less properties on the market than 2009.

    I only ask because the National Association of estate agents appear to be confirming exactly the opposite.

    You will understand that empirical evidence suggests its best to procure evidence from your good self.

    That said, as I've made the above point already, and you've decided to stick to your guns, I can only assume you have the answer to hand. So do please clarify....

    From your original post:

    The stock of unsold properties on estate agents' books is at its highest level for more than two years, according to new research. A surge of new sellers pushed the average number of houses for sale at each branch to 74 properties in June, up from 68 in May, according to the National Association of Estate Agents. Increased confidence that they could get a sale had encouraged sellers, the association said, adding it is the highest average properties per branch total since April 2009.

    Or have I misunderstood?
  • nembot
    nembot Posts: 1,234 Forumite
    No, some estate agents even sold 1 house per month - tiz great news!
  • geneer
    geneer Posts: 4,220 Forumite
    Pimperne1 wrote: »
    From your original post:

    The stock of unsold properties on estate agents' books is at its highest level for more than two years, according to new research. A surge of new sellers pushed the average number of houses for sale at each branch to 74 properties in June, up from 68 in May, according to the National Association of Estate Agents. Increased confidence that they could get a sale had encouraged sellers, the association said, adding it is the highest average properties per branch total since April 2009.

    Or have I misunderstood?

    So nothing to do with approvals then?



    In any event, still can't see where its suggested that supply is now less than April 2009. In fact this seems to infer that they are about the same.
  • Pimperne1
    Pimperne1 Posts: 2,177 Forumite
    geneer wrote: »
    So nothing to do with approvals then?



    In any event, still can't see where its suggested that supply is now less than April 2009. In fact this seems to infer that they are about the same.

    I suppose the could be about the same, 2009 could be more (but the only thing for sure is that 2009 isn't less).

    So, there were more (or the same amount) of properties on the market in April 2009.

    In April 2009 only 36k properties sold (and prices rose for eight straight months from May 2009 according to LR). Currently there appear to be in excess of 45k properties selling each month (at least in March there were 45k and I would be surprised if the current figure is not higher).

    To summarise, the last time we had this many properties on the market there were 20% less people buying, house prices went into a fairly steep rise and this was during a period when there were less mortgages available.
  • geneer
    geneer Posts: 4,220 Forumite
    edited 28 July 2011 pm31 7:54PM
    Pimperne1 wrote: »
    I suppose the could be about the same, 2009 could be more (but the only thing for sure is that 2009 isn't less).

    So, there were more (or the same amount) of properties on the market in April 2009.

    In otherwords you're guessing.
    Pimperne1 wrote: »

    In April 2009 only 36k properties sold (and prices rose for eight straight months from May 2009 according to LR).

    You appear to be confused pimp.
    You have linked the BOE approvals figures.
    This shows that in april 2009 43414 mortgages were approved.
    Pimperne1 wrote: »

    Currently there appear to be in excess of 45k properties selling each month (at least in March there were 45k and I would be surprised if the current figure is not higher).

    I believe you mean May.
    Which of course is not currently.
    We will know how many are currently selling when the BOE publishes the figures in september(ish).
    Pimperne1 wrote: »

    To summarise, the last time we had this many properties on the market there were 20% less people buying

    I think you need to recheck your sums there pimp.
    Pimperne1 wrote: »

    house prices went into a fairly steep rise

    As demand was rapidly increasing. Demand is now rapidly falling.
    I believe this has been noted. :rotfl:
    Pimperne1 wrote: »

    and this was during a period when there were less mortgages available.

    And?
  • Pimperne1
    Pimperne1 Posts: 2,177 Forumite
    geneer wrote: »
    In otherwords you're guessing.



    You appear to be confused pimp.
    You have linked the BOE approvals figures.
    This shows that in april 2009 43414 mortgages were approved.



    I believe you mean May.
    Which of course is not currently.
    We will know how many are currently selling when the BOE publishes the figures in september(ish).



    I think you need to recheck your sums there pimp (but I expect to be proven horribly wrong again).



    As demand was rapidly increasing. Demand is now rapidly falling.
    I believe this has been noted. :rotfl:



    And?

    Wow!

    Firstly. Its either the same or more, not guessing there but it would be an amazing coincidence for it to be the same.

    Secondly. I was referring to properties sold rather than mortgages offered and I took those figures from Land Registry:

    http://housepricecrash.co.uk/indices-land-registry-national-monthly.php

    Third: No, I meant March. Again LR figures (but with the benefit of today's release we can see that nearly 49k sold in April).

    Fourth: In April 2009 36k properties sold, in April 2011 nearly 49k properties sold.

    Demand is rapidly falling? By what measure?
  • geneer
    geneer Posts: 4,220 Forumite
    Pimperne1 wrote: »
    Wow!
    Firstly. Its either the same or more, not guessing there but it would be an amazing coincidence for it to be the same.

    Well initially you were quite clearly infering it was much more.
    Which, in all likely hood, it isn't.
    Pimperne1 wrote: »
    Wow!
    Secondly. I was referring to properties sold rather than mortgages offered and I took those figures from Land Registry:

    http://housepricecrash.co.uk/indices-land-registry-national-monthly.php

    Probably should have linked that then eh.

    Pimperne1 wrote: »
    Third: No, I meant March. Again LR figures (but with the benefit of today's release we can see that nearly 49k sold in April).

    Fourth: In April 2009 36k properties sold, in April 2011 nearly 49k properties sold.


    Its not april though is it pimp. Its July.

    Pimperne1 wrote: »
    Demand is rapidly falling? By what measure?
    Please see original post.
  • macaque_2
    macaque_2 Posts: 2,439 Forumite
    julieq wrote: »
    How would you define risky lending, Geneer? Everything has some level of risk attached, so what ratio of capital loaned to capital lost would you call unacceptable?

    I think I can help you here julieq. Imagine you go to the Grand National and one of the horses paraded before the race has an artificial leg with a plastic wheel. That's a bad risk even if the odds are 10,000 to 1.

    90% loans on the housing market today are like backing a horse with 3 plastic wheels. Sure it has one good hind leg to push itself along but you just know that all will be lost when it reaches the first fence (for fences see redundancy, pay cuts, higher interest rates).
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