Estate agents report surge in houses up for sale (and failing to sell)

geneer

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/jul/27/estate-agents-surge-house-sales

Housing market sees highest number of unsold properties on estate agents' books for more than two years

The stock of unsold properties on estate agents' books is at its highest level for more than two years, according to new research. A surge of new sellers pushed the average number of houses for sale at each branch to 74 properties in June, up from 68 in May, according to the National Association of Estate Agents. Increased confidence that they could get a sale had encouraged sellers, the association said, adding it is the highest average properties per branch total since April 2009. Stocks have risen even though the number of sales per branch increased over the month from eight to nine.
National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA) president Wendy Evans-Scott said the increased stock offers a wider choice of properties to pick from, but she conceded the problems of getting a mortgage, especially for first-time buyers, means demand remains subdued.
The number of potential buyers registered at each branch fell from 275 to 263 over the past month and are down from 279 this time last year.
The figures back the most recent survey from property website Rightmove, which said house asking prices fell for the first time this year in July as the number of unsold properties on estate agents' books climbed.
The average asking price for a home dropped 1.6%, or £3,797, to £236,597 in July, Rightmove said.
Both organisations said the market varies from region to region, but the problem of getting a mortgage is consistent.
Richard Horner, one of the NAEA regional executives for the north, said although lenders say they have eased their criteria this is not evident currently, while even in the more buoyant south east agents say mortgage availability is patchy.
Some agents are guilty of over-valuation to tempt sellers, some of the NAEA regional executives suggested, but the real bottleneck remains at the first-time buyer level.
According to the NAEA, the percentage of first-time buyers in the market fell in June to 20% from 24% in May.
One executive in the Midlands added: "Lenders need to start to lend and relax their criteria."

Naturally the only solution is to go back to risky lending. :rotfl:


This is the difference between VIs and having a vested interest.

julieq

How would you define risky lending, Geneer? Everything has some level of risk attached, so what ratio of capital loaned to capital lost would you call unacceptable?

ultrawomble

Lending at 125% LTV in the north of England.

Pimperne1

So there were more properties on the market in April 2009.

In April 2009 only 36k properties sold (and prices rose for eight straight months from May 2009 according to LR). Currently there appear to be in excess of 45k properties selling each month (at least in March there were 45k and I would be surprised if the current figure is not higher).

To summarise, the last time we had this many properties on the market there were 20% less people buying, house prices went into a fairly steep rise and this was during a period when there were less mortgages available.

Worrying.

geneer

Pimperne1 wrote: »

So there were more properties on the market in April 2009.

In April 2009 only 36k properties sold (and prices rose for eight straight months from May 2009 according to LR). Currently there appear to be in excess of 45k properties selling each month (at least in March there were 45k and I would be surprised if the current figure is not higher).

To summarise, the last time we had this many properties on the market there were 20% less people buying, house prices went into a fairly steep rise and this was during a period when there were less mortgages available.

Worrying.

Linky please.

geneer

I think you mean "three months ago there were 45K properties selling each month".
Land reg lags dontcha know pimp.


NAEA feb 2009 http://www.naea.co.uk/property-news/2009/2/-1681/ "demand up but supply down".

NAEA July 2011. "supply surging demand down"

Pimperne1

geneer wrote: »

I think you mean "three months ago there were 45K properties selling each month".
Land reg lags dontcha know pimp.


NAEA feb 2009 http://www.naea.co.uk/property-news/2009/2/-1681/ "demand up but supply down".

NAEA July 2011. "supply surging demand down"

http://housepricecrash.co.uk/graphs-mortgage-approvals.php

geneer

Pimperne1 wrote: »

http://housepricecrash.co.uk/graphs-mortgage-approvals.php

Ah. So approvals fallen 25% since the false dawn of winter 2009 then. Interesting.

Thanks for linking Pimperne1.

Now of course you have to explain how approvals are in any way reflective of the balance of supply and demand in any way whatsoever.

I only ask because it seems the balance is now moving in a very different direction.

NAEA feb 2009 http://www.naea.co.uk/property-news/2009/2/-1681/ "demand up but supply down".

NAEA July 2011. "supply surging demand down"

MFW_10YRS_4

ultrawomble wrote: »

Lending at 125% LTV in the north of England.

Thanks for this, I'd never really thought about it, but I guess it is less risky to lend at 125% in London and possibly the nicer parts of the SE than elsewhere in the UK.

Pimperne1

geneer wrote: »

Ah. So approvals fallen 25% since the false dawn of winter 2009 then. Interesting.

Thanks for linking Pimperne1.

Now of course you have to explain how approvals are in any way reflective of the balance of supply and demand in any way whatsoever.

I only ask because it seems the balance is now moving in a very different direction.

No need to thank me.

So, back to my point. Less properties on the market than two years ago when prices took off, mortgage availability increased, more people buying. Looks like a template for an increase in prices.

geneer

Pimperne1 wrote: »

No need to thank me.

So, back to my point. Less properties on the market than two years ago when prices took off, mortgage availability increased, more people buying. Looks like a template for an increase in prices.

Sorry Pimp. As stated, I'm can't see how you've concluded from mortgage approvals that there are less properties on the market than 2009.

I only ask because the National Association of estate agents appear to be confirming exactly the opposite.

You will understand that empirical evidence suggests its best to procure evidence from your good self.

That said, as I've made the above point already, and you've decided to stick to your guns, I can only assume you have the answer to hand. So do please clarify....