U.K. House Prices Decline to Lowest Level in 17 Months, Acadametrics Says

geneer

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-07/u-k-house-prices-fall-to-lowest-in-17-months-acadametrics-says.html

“The modest gains in house prices over the last 18 months have disappeared,” Peter Williams, chairman of Acadametrics, said in the report. “A significant squeeze on household budgets is under way given high inflation, rising taxation and falling real incomes. If the economy’s growth slows as many expect, these pressures will intensify.”
Out of the 10 regions tracked, eight posted falls in the past three months compared with a year earlier. Prices in northwest England led declines with a 4.8 percent drop, while London posted a 5 percent gain. In May, values in the capital decreased 1.4 percent on the month.
“Putting the fall down solely to high-value homes would ignore the weakness in the present market,” said David Newnes, managing director of LSL. The regional declines in the past three months indicate “the impact of the continuing shortage of mortgage finance,” he said.

Does rather look like land reg for June is going to be negative again.

Graham_Devon

Looks to me as if the author is confused. And the acadametrics index is confused.

And they are wrong.

geneer

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Looks to me as if the author is confused. And the acadametrics index is confused.

And they are wrong.

Hows that then?


My point is that Acadametrics provide the land reg data, and use the early information in their index.
So it looks like a good chance of another negative in the next land reg stats.

Thrugelmir

Reminds me of that immortal line from the "Dark Side of the Moon".

"Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way".

Graham_Devon

geneer wrote: »

Hows that then?


My point is that Acadametrics provide the land reg data, and use the early information in their index.
So it looks like a good chance of another negative in the next land reg stats.

Tounge in cheek. Often stats are confused if they say the "wrong" thing.

the_flying_pig

just the name 'Acadametrics' embarrasses me. bag o'!!!!!.

no real thoughts on whether it's a good index. i half suspect not.

Pimperne1

The unexpected surge in prices last year probably means that LR will be negative YoY for the rest of the year (but not the further 25% predicted by Geneer).

ruggedtoast

Acadametrics is the most statistically valid index based on the range of samples it tests for.

Everytime an Academetrics report comes out there seems to be the same chorus of voices going "Ooh its run by estate agents and its VI and I've never heard of it and its got a silly name".

These people are wrong, as Acadametrics is more likely to give an accurate representation of what property prices are doing than anything else including the land registry (which they also use as part of their metric).

NB. Some of this post may be wrong. But I really do like Acadametrics.

geneer

Pimperne1 wrote: »

The unexpected surge in prices last year probably means that LR will be negative YoY for the rest of the year (but not the further 25% predicted by Geneer).

An absolute fabrication good sir. I have predicted no such thing.
You lower yourself.

Loopgames

I am certainly seeing this decrease in the area I would like to purchase a house in. One house has recently sold for £250k which would be worth over £300k back in 2007/8.

However, when one looks at the history of the sale prices you notice that many have purchased these houses/homes a long time ago and assuming they haven't remortgaged may ride out the current dip in house prices before they decide to sell at a large 'discount' from the previous highs.

Thrugelmir

Loopgames wrote: »

However, when one looks at the history of the sale prices you notice that many have purchased these houses/homes a long time ago and assuming they haven't remortgaged may ride out the current dip in house prices before they decide to sell at a large 'discount' from the previous highs.

If the property has become your pension fund. So downsizing is the intention. The remaining released capital isn't going to provide the income level many expected.