Debate House Prices
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2011 HPI predictions - mid-year update
nollag2006
Posts: 2,638 Forumite
As we approach mid-year, what are your predictions for HPI for 2011?
I'd probably go for 3-5%, with the rate picking up again in 2012
I'd probably go for 3-5%, with the rate picking up again in 2012
What will 2011 HPI be? 34 votes
> 8% - return to 2009 boom conditions
0%
0 votes
3 to 7% - moderate HPI to continue
11%
4 votes
+/- 2% - market largely flat
29%
10 votes
-3 to -5% - first half year uptick unwinds
35%
12 votes
-6 to -20% - 2007 falls return
20%
7 votes
-21 to -70% - Total economic devastation
2%
1 vote
0
Comments
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With no change in interest rates on the horizon. This is providing the property market with a temporary prop. Though with current news all pressure remains downwards.
So a further 5% fall by the end of the year .0 -
You sure this poll is for 2011?
Only for my choice, it states: "first half year uptick unwinds"
And we haven't had an uptick.0 -
Thrugelmir wrote: »With no change in interest rates on the horizon. This is providing the property market with a temporary prop. Though with current news all pressure remains downwards.
So a further 5% fall by the end of the year .
What do you mean by "further"? According to Nationwide prices are significantly up this year, Land Registry says they are about the same and even Halifax, which show a drop, don't have confidence in their figures.0 -
I estimate a 5% fall on Haliwide stats from end 2010 to end 2011....much enquiry having been made concerning a gentleman, who had quitted a company where Johnson was, and no information being obtained; at last Johnson observed, that 'he did not care to speak ill of any man behind his back, but he believed the gentleman was an attorney'.0
-
what did you estimate in 2009 or 2010?neverdespairgirl wrote: »I estimate a 5% fall on Haliwide stats from end 2010 to end 2011.0 -
neverdespairgirl wrote: »I estimate a 5% fall on Haliwide stats from end 2010 to end 2011.
Both Halifax and Nationwide? If this turns out to be true then Nationwide is going to crash 9% in the next six months.0 -
what did you estimate in 2009 or 2010?
I can't remember. I might well have been wrong, though!...much enquiry having been made concerning a gentleman, who had quitted a company where Johnson was, and no information being obtained; at last Johnson observed, that 'he did not care to speak ill of any man behind his back, but he believed the gentleman was an attorney'.0 -
I estimated 5-7% lower this year.
Looking like I am over bearish (again)0 -
I think you need to identify an index to hang this on. Nationwide and Halifax are so different that someone could claim a 5% increase and someone else a 5% drop and they both turn out to be correct. Suggest LR.0
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LR stats sound like a good starting point.0
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