The graph that house buyers have been waiting for

stelaconcepts

macaque wrote: »

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/11/15/404746/bleak-house-prices/

The 70% club recommends tha house buyers wait for now. There's plenty more to come.

Anyone able to post an updated UK house prices priced in ounces of silver chart?

AD9898_2

Eton_Rifle wrote: »

The whole of the US is not like this though.
I watch the US property TV shows and it seems to me that desirable areas aren't much different to our prices.

Thing is that house sounds big enough to be a desirable area all on it's own .

I'll always remember bringing a girlfriend over from Australia, she said 'why are so many of your houses joined together ?' I said 'what's worse is you go down to London and places like that and those houses have been split again, into four flats.

She said 'why would anyone want to pay so much for so little space and privacy.' I didn't have an answer.

I remembered her saying that when I went to London two weeks ago and saw 50-60k cars parked on grass verges in what I'd say are very poor looking areas, not even a driveway nevermind a garage.

I just thought, people must have lost touch completely with reality.

System

Hmm, do I see another YoY fail?

Batchy

AD9898 wrote: »

Thing is that house sounds big enough to be a desirable area all on it's own .

I'll always remember bringing a girlfriend over from Australia, she said 'why are so many of your houses joined together ?' I said 'what's worse is you go down to London and places like that and those houses have been split again, into four flats.

She said 'why would anyone want to pay so much for so little space and privacy.' I didn't have an answer.

I remembered her saying that when I went to London two weeks ago and saw 50-60k cars parked on grass verges in what I'd say are very poor looking areas, not even a driveway nevermind a garage.

I just thought, people must have lost touch completely with reality.

because they want to live in a vibrant city rather than a desert... its a base, for a very busy social life, most people socialise outside of home in london, rather than IN HOUSE. as long as its got a bed, bathroom and kitchen your sorted

careinthecommunity

halight wrote: »

Dose not really matter if the price of your house goes up or down. Your buying a home for the long term. Not a house that you are going to flip in 12 months time and bank a load of cash.
Short term price movements in house prices only really matter to the people who buy and then tart them up to sell a few months later. A house should be a home for the long term.

good comment i will add my 2 pence

the general concensus though is that a homeowner still expects a profit and "long term" in the current climate i would suggest is not the 10-20 years more like 3-5 [take a look on the selling board for starters]

what you are suggesting is effectively a norm but you are fighting a tide that has already come in ...

sabretoothtigger

Prices in usa will be lower then USA because of the population density I think.
Also I bet that 55k house is made from wood, basically cheaper and quicker to build and worth less over time as it will require more maintenance?
Location is everything, I would guess its not on 5th avenue but probably somewhere really nice and way out of the city pretty much so travel costs vs location. A bit like here but more so hence they dont really tax petrol in usa its part of their freedom ethos I think

The yanks think we are doomed because our prices are so high. Thing is they always been much higher, it was usa mostly that suddenly went up in recent years more so then even the uk

house buyers wait for now

wait for what exactly. Wait so you can pay more rent to a private landlord. Wait so you can save money at the lowest interest rates ever and 5% inflation, thats not saving to me. Wait so the rates can rise and you miss the real benefit of it which is investing in your own future.

Thing is its not a simple situation, people must value each house personally by location by the cost of their potential debt or their present rent. Theres no thread or article thats going to give a definitive answer on this.

My own view is holding back 50k in cash or whatever so you can pay rent instead of a mortgage is a suckers bet, I cant see it really paying off now or in years time. Best lay out each scenario and what it costs to take, owning the house isnt that expensive, if thats the case on average then the prices will not come down?

stelaconcepts wrote: »

Anyone able to post an updated UK house prices priced in ounces of silver chart?

Investing in silver is at the opposite end of the risk spectrum to owning a house. It would show greatly falling house prices in 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 and probably 2011 etc
anytime the rise of one price is greater then another it will mean the other gets cheaper.
Stocks priced in oil fell by 70% over the last ten years.

Silver or oil is not really an answer to why people should wait to buy because thats suggesting the average person should be a commodity speculator.
I see your point and you might even be right but its not really fair as the asset classes are substantially different but long term cash savings are similar to housing and housing debt especially if the debt is at a fixed rate.
The rate for silver appreciation is off the scale, it could half, it could double where as people can secure a mortgage at like 6% cost for ten years, ratio that cost vs possible inflation (or even real appreciation in housing stock) and its clear why even the risk adverse should own a house rather then save money

neverdespairgirl

AD9898 wrote: »

I remembered her saying that when I went to London two weeks ago and saw 50-60k cars parked on grass verges in what I'd say are very poor looking areas, not even a driveway nevermind a garage.

I just thought, people must have lost touch completely with reality.

Where in London was that?

Degenerate

StevieJ wrote: »

So prices are still higher than last year, well asking prices anyway?
A bit desperate there Mac.

The doomsters certainly love these "rate of change" type graphs. I'm not sure whether it is because of their ignorance of statistical methods or a propensity for deliberate misinformation.

Free clues folks: This type of graph produces a downward trend the moment a booming market starts to climb at a slightly slower rate. For prices to be falling it would have to cross the y axis and go negative.

Blacklight

Degenerate wrote: »

The doomsters certainly love these "rate of change" type graphs. I'm not sure whether it is because of their ignorance of statistical methods or a propensity for deliberate misinformation.

Free clues folks: This type of graph produces a downward trend the moment a booming market starts to climb at a slightly slower rate. For prices to be falling it would have to cross the y axis and go negative.

In addition I would add that the last 12 months have been flat:
(Nationwide figures)

Nov-09    325.2
Dec-09    326.8
Jan-10    330.5
Feb-10    327.4
Mar-10    330.4
Apr-10    333.6
May-10    335.0
Jun-10    335.0
Jul-10    333.2
Aug-10    330.3
Sep-10    330.3
Oct-10    327.9

Any upward movement is going to show up rather drastically. Be careful what you post, these things have a habit of coming back to bite you.

ctrlaltdelete

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Investing in silver is at the opposite end of the risk spectrum to owning a house. It would show greatly falling house prices in 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 and probably 2011 etc
anytime the rise of one price is greater then another it will mean the other gets cheaper.
Stocks priced in oil fell by 70% over the last ten years.

Silver or oil is not really an answer to why people should wait to buy because thats suggesting the average person should be a commodity speculator.
I see your point and you might even be right but its not really fair as the asset classes are substantially different but long term cash savings are similar to housing and housing debt especially if the debt is at a fixed rate.
The rate for silver appreciation is off the scale, it could half, it could double where as people can secure a mortgage at like 6% cost for ten years, ratio that cost vs possible inflation (or even real appreciation in housing stock) and its clear why even the risk adverse should own a house rather then save money

Silver and gold are going to crash just like Hamish has been saying for years.

You are much safer in houses.