Hometrack - House prices dip in October, first year-on-year fall since January

worldtraveller

House prices in England and Wales dipped 0.1 percent in October from a year earlier, a survey by property data firm Hometrack showed on Monday, giving the first year-on-year fall since January.

Hometrack, which asks estate agents and surveyors to give achievable selling prices for different types of homes in every post code in England and Wales, said prices were down 0.9 percent on the month -- the biggest monthly drop since January 2009.

The monthly figures are not adjusted to take account of seasonal trends in the housing market.

The average house price in England Wales has now fallen for four consecutive months to stand at 156,200 pounds, the lowest since September 2009.

The figures concur with other housing market surveys showing a broad slowdown in activity and prices. Analysts expect a further decline ahead as the economy slows into next year when hefty government spending cuts and tax rises start to bite.

"Further price falls are inevitable in the run up to Christmas and are likely to continue to fall into the first half of 2011," said Hometrack's director of research Richard Donnell.

"A stand off is beginning to emerge between buyers waiting for prices to fall further and sellers being unrealistic on the price they're willing to accept."

Donnell said there had been a 14 percent increase in homes coming onto the market in the last six months while demand had fallen 8 percent.

Hometrack's survey covered more than 5,100 estate agents and surveyors.

Reuters

Wookster

Well one thing is for sure - all the indices are starting to align in the same direction.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

And to add some more detail.....

Prices were lower across 56% of the country last month, compared to 34% in September and 30% in August, according to Hometrack's monthly survey of 5,100 agents and surveyors. The number of new buyers registering with estate agents fell by 2% in October, the fourth monthly decline in a row, while the number of properties listed went up by 1.9%.

Hometrack said that over the past six months the supply of homes for sale has grown by 14% while demand has fallen by 8%.

This means that a property, stays on the market for 9.6 weeks on average, before it is sold – the logest period since May 2009.

The proportion of sales where the asking price is achieved has dropped to 92.7%, the lowest level since September last year.

However, Hometrack expects further "modest" falls in prices rather than a return to the double digit declines seen in 2008 at the height of the property market slump.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/nov/01/october-house-prices-hometrack

So even after the biggest cuts since the 70's:

-Prices are rising in 44% of the country

-92% of houses sell for full asking price

-It takes just 9 weeks on average to sell a house

And interestingly they note the Mexican stand-off between buyers and sellers on price is starting to develop already. Which of course last time around resulted in large numbers of houses being pulled off the market and supply falling off a cliff.

It does look like the bears will get a few months of small falls over winter. But it also looks like they won't be getting the crash they so badly want.

torontoboy45

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

And to add some more detail.....

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/nov/01/october-house-prices-hometrack

So even after the biggest cuts since the 70's:

-Prices are rising in 44% of the country

-92% of houses sell for full asking price

-It takes just 9 weeks on average to sell a house

And interestingly they note the Mexican stand-off between buyers and sellers on price is starting to develop already. Which of course last time around resulted in large numbers of houses being pulled off the market and supply falling off a cliff.

It does look like the bears will get a few months of small falls over winter. But it also looks like they won't be getting the crash they so badly want.

but the report doesn't doesn't mention prices rising. in fact, it doesn't comment at all on the 44%.

and I'd have to query the 92% figure. are we to believe that 92% of buyers waltz throught the door, look at the asking price and simply say: 'sounds fair to me; I'll take it'?

useless

torontoboy45 wrote: »

but the report doesn't doesn't mention prices rising. in fact, it doesn't comment at all on the 44%.

and I'd have to query the 92% figure. are we to believe that 92% of buyers waltz throught the door, look at the asking price and simply say: 'sounds fair to me; I'll take it'?

Yes that 92% stood out like a sore thumb to me in that article....could it be expressed slightly wrongly? I haven't looked at the report itself.
It certainly implies that 92% of properties achieve full asking. That would mean quite good times for house sellers I would have thought.

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

And to add some more detail.....

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/nov/01/october-house-prices-hometrack

So even after the biggest cuts since the 70's:

-Prices are rising in 44% of the country

-92% of houses sell for full asking price

-It takes just 9 weeks on average to sell a house

And interestingly they note the Mexican stand-off between buyers and sellers on price is starting to develop already. Which of course last time around resulted in large numbers of houses being pulled off the market and supply falling off a cliff.

It does look like the bears will get a few months of small falls over winter. But it also looks like they won't be getting the crash they so badly want.

Are you trolling for fun now?

Next month you gonna come to us if they fall and say "fail, prices are still rising in 36% of the country".

Month after that if they are still falling will you be back to say "fail, prices are still rising in 27% of the country".

the_flying_pig

useless wrote: »

Yes that 92% stood out like a sore thumb to me in that article....could it be expressed slightly wrongly? I haven't looked at the report itself.
It certainly implies that 92% of properties achieve full asking. That would mean quite good times for house sellers I would have thought.

here are the july to september numbers.

not the subtle differences between the truth and H''s interpretation.

and the noticable downward trend.

PasturesNew

The 92% means: houses achieved 92% of their asking price, not 92% of houses achieved their asking price.

doire_2

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

And to add some more detail.....

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/nov/01/october-house-prices-hometrack

So even after the biggest cuts since the 70's:

-Prices are rising in 44% of the country

-92% of houses sell for full asking price

-It takes just 9 weeks on average to sell a house

And interestingly they note the Mexican stand-off between buyers and sellers on price is starting to develop already. Which of course last time around resulted in large numbers of houses being pulled off the market and supply falling off a cliff.

It does look like the bears will get a few months of small falls over winter. But it also looks like they won't be getting the crash they so badly want.

The cuts haven't even kicked in yet for Gods sake!

lemonjelly

PasturesNew wrote: »

The 92% means: houses achieved 92% of their asking price, not 92% of houses achieved their asking price.

This is the risky part. If purchasers have picked up on this news, (& also potentially lenders) then this could result in either of purchasers making lower offers, and/or lenders/valuers granting lower mortgages or withdrawing mortgages where they feel properties may be over-valued.

Percy1983

Sounds good to me.