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UK Retail Sales alot worse than expected

inspector_monkfish
inspector_monkfish Posts: 9,276 Forumite
edited 21 October 2010 at 8:33AM in Debate House Prices & the Economy
09:30 21Oct10 -UK SEPT RETAIL SALES INC. FUEL -0.2% MM, +0.5% YY, (CONS. +0.4% MM, +1.0% YY), EX-FUEL UNCH MM

09:30 21Oct10 -UK SEPT RETAIL SALES INC. FUEL +1.0% 3MTH/3MTH, +0.9% 3MTH VS YEAR AGO

09:30 21Oct10 -UK SEPT RETAIL SALES DEFLATOR 2.1% YY VS 1.5% YY IN AUG

09:30 21Oct10 -ONS - FALL IN SEPTEMBER RETAIL SALES DRIVEN BY CLOTHING AND AUTOMOTIVE FUEL

09:30 21Oct10 -UK retail sales fall for 2nd straight month in Sept

LONDON, Oct 21 - British retail sales unexpectedly fell for a second month in a row in September, driven lower by weak clothing and fuel sales, official data showed on Thursday, in a further sign that consumer spending is slowing.

The figures are likely to reinforce the view that Britain's economic recovery has peaked after bouncing back strongly from an 18-month recession.

*******************************************************

KEY FIGURES FOR UK RETAIL SALES

SEPT AUG F'CAST
% MM (incl. fuel) -0.2 -0.7 (-0.5 pvs) +0.4
% YY 0.5 0.8 (+0.4 pvs) +1.0
% MM (ex. fuel) UNCH -0.6 (-0.4 pvs) +0.3
((FOR PREVIOUS STORIES, CLICK ON [GBRSL=ECI-M]))

KEY POINTS

- Second consecutive m/m fall in retail sales, longest sustained fall since Dec 2009-Jan 2010
- Highest 3m/3m growth in non-food stores sales since May 2004
- Biggest yy fall in household goods sales since Jan 2010
- Highest yy growth in other stores since Nov 2009


LONDON, Oct 21 - The Office for National Statistics released the following seasonally adjusted data on British retail sales on Thursday. All figures are percentage changes unless otherwise stated.

RETAIL SALES VOLUME SEPT AUG (PREV AUG)
Monthly s/adj change -0.2* -0.7 (-0.5)
Year-on-year change 0.5 0.8 (0.4)
3mth/3mth 1.0 1.5 (1.4)
3m/3m year ago 0.9 1.1 (0.7)
Sales excl. fuel mm UNCH -0.6 (-0.4)


Market forecasts: m/m y/y
Retail sales +0.4 +1.0

BY SECTOR (percentage gain, minus indicates fall)
m/m y/y 3m/3m 3m/yr ago
Predominantly food 0.1 -2.3 -1.1 -2.1
Total pred non-food 0.1 3.8 2.3** 4.3
Non-specialised 0.2 8.4 1.2 8.6
Textile,clothing,foot -0.8 4.8 1.0 6.2
Household goods 0.2 -2.0*** -0.1 -1.4
Other stores 0.7 4.6**** 6.1 4.3
Non-store/repair -0.5 13.5 7.3 15.3
Automotive fuel -2.3 -12.8 -1.2 -11.9

SEPT
Value pct change from year ago +2.4
Value pct change 3mths vs year ago +2.7
Deflator (nsa) pct change from yr ago 2.1

* Second consecutive m/m fall in retail sales, longest sustained fall since Dec 2009-Jan 2010
** Highest 3m/3m growth in non-food stores sales since May 2004
*** Biggest yy fall in household goods sales since Jan 2010
**** Highest yy growth in other stores since Nov 2009

LONDON, Oct 21 - British retail sales unexpectedly fell for a second month in a row in September, driven lower by weak clothing and fuel sales, official data showed on Thursday, in a further sign that consumer spending is slowing.

The Office for National Statistics said sales volumes including automotive fuel fell 0.2 percent last month after a downwardly revised drop of 0.7 percent in August. Analysts had forecast a rise of 0.4 percent last month.

On the year, sales were 0.5 percent higher, well below forecasts for a reading of 1.0 percent annual growth.

Excluding fuel, retail sales were unchanged on the month and 1.8 percent higher than in September last year.

The figures, which show the longest sustained fall in sales since the turn of the year, are likely to reinforce the view that Britain's economic recovery has peaked and support broad evidence of weakening consumer activity.

Some economists argue that the Bank of England will have to do more to stimulate growth as the government reduces a record budget deficit through large public spending cuts and tax rises, including a hike in VAT sales tax to 20 percent next year.

The ONS said textile, clothing and footwear sales fell 0.8 percent on the month and predominantly automotive fuel sales were down 2.3 percent.

There were muted rises in food stores and household goods stores sales.
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Comments

  • lemonjelly
    lemonjelly Posts: 8,014 Forumite
    1,000 Posts Combo Breaker Mortgage-free Glee!
    The figures don't look good. Part of me is suprised that they've reduced by so much the last couple of months.

    Surely retailers have to be worried about their seasonal/christmas sales being worse than anticipated, unless of course the current dip is because people are saving for christmas?
    It's getting harder & harder to keep the government in the manner to which they have become accustomed.
  • tomterm8
    tomterm8 Posts: 5,892 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture Combo Breaker
    Not that surprised. You have millions of public sector workers and people who work for private sector companies that supply the government, wondering if they'll have a job next year, they are going to be cutting back.
    “The ideas of debtor and creditor as to what constitutes a good time never coincide.”
    ― P.G. Wodehouse, Love Among the Chickens
  • Blacklight
    Blacklight Posts: 1,565 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    tomterm8 wrote: »
    Not that surprised. You have millions of public sector workers and people who work for private sector companies that supply the government, wondering if they'll have a job next year, they [STRIKE]are [/STRIKE] were going to be cutting back.

    I think they'll be a lot out there like the police, who had been led to believe that there would be 60,000 front line officers on the dole. These people who found out yesterday that spending will remain fairly consistent in nominal terms over four years. I reckon they'll part with some of that cash they've been hoarding before Christmas.
  • doire_2
    doire_2 Posts: 2,275 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    Blacklight wrote: »
    I think they'll be a lot out there like the police, who had been led to believe that there would be 60,000 front line officers on the dole. These people who found out yesterday that spending will remain fairly consistent in nominal terms over four years. I reckon they'll part with some of that cash they've been hoarding before Christmas.


    490,000 public sector and the knock on affect for the private sector will have a lot of people worried
  • FTBFun
    FTBFun Posts: 4,273 Forumite
    doire wrote: »
    490,000 public sector and the knock on affect for the private sector will have a lot of people worried

    Indeed - 490,000 P45s are in the post as we speak.

    Or not.
  • JonnyBravo
    JonnyBravo Posts: 4,103 Forumite
    Mortgage-free Glee!
    lemonjelly wrote: »
    unless of course the current dip is because people are saving for christmas?

    Of course the sensible and fortunate amongst us put away an amount each month so there is no big hit come Xmas (apart from the bar bill)
    :A
  • lemonjelly wrote: »
    The figures don't look good. Part of me is suprised that they've reduced by so much the last couple of months.

    Surely retailers have to be worried about their seasonal/christmas sales being worse than anticipated, unless of course the current dip is because people are saving for christmas?



    Retailers have been dropping their prices all year.

    No massive bonanza X-Mas rush this year.
    Not Again
  • tomterm8
    tomterm8 Posts: 5,892 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture Combo Breaker
    edited 21 October 2010 at 9:47AM
    Blacklight wrote: »
    I think they'll be a lot out there like the police, who had been led to believe that there would be 60,000 front line officers on the dole. These people who found out yesterday that spending will remain fairly consistent in nominal terms over four years. I reckon they'll part with some of that cash they've been hoarding before Christmas.

    But in the real world, most people have not read the d**mned spending review, and they are looking at headlines saying 490,000 people are going to lose their job*, and thinking 'oh !!!!'.

    Truth doesn't matter much in this calculation.

    * even though this is basically not the case.
    “The ideas of debtor and creditor as to what constitutes a good time never coincide.”
    ― P.G. Wodehouse, Love Among the Chickens
  • setmefree2
    setmefree2 Posts: 9,072 Forumite
    Mortgage-free Glee!
    I haven't seen the detail behind these figures but it has been unseasonably warm (until today :snow_laug ) and we women don't go out shopping for clothes until there is a temperature change....

    ...just a thought.
  • Blacklight
    Blacklight Posts: 1,565 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    tomterm8 wrote: »
    But in the real world, most people have not read the d**mned spending review, and they are looking at headlines saying 490,000 people are going to lose their job*, and thinking 'oh !!!!'.

    Morale is to the physical as three is to one.

    * even though this is basically not the case.

    Aye you've certainly got a point. One can only hope the sensationalist headlines are counterproductive and everyone feels too poor to buy a paper ever again.
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