Roll up. Make your housing market prediction here.

[Deleted User]

Don't give up, there are always people willing to drop the price for a quick sale and since you have no chain, you're in a good position!

meanmachine_2

I find it bizarre that sellers, in November, against a backdrop of rising fixed rate mortgages have collectively decided "yes, now is the time to raise my asking price!"

It just seems very very weird.

I suspect Rightmove desperately wanted to hit that 200K mark before the Xmas lull.

Something really ain't right. I've been viewing - sellers are desperate for an offer. And yet the stats tell us the market is now booming again.

One peroperty had been on the market for 4 months. Hadn't had a single offer, price dropped by 20K.

Booming?!!!

[Deleted User]

Something really ain't right. I've been viewing - sellers are desperate for an offer. And yet the stats tell us the market is now booming again.

I agree, I am not sure what's going on.

The house I am buying was on the market for 6 months, no offers, price dropped £25K, knocked off more money and got it , other houses I saw months ago are still there and some of them have been reduced... yet my local paper says that my Borough saw prices rise by 10% this year

Almost_Redundant

Something struck me on Saturday. I was sitting at the computer feeling rather cold due to the sudden change in outside temperature. So I just got up and switched on the heating without a thought. Have virtually left it on since then.
Now i'm not even remotely bothered as i'm living in (cheap) rented accomodation and have no debt at all. So, how many people across the country mortgaged to the hilt did the same thing? Probably quite a few. This winter looks set to be rather cold if you listen to the forecasters. More expense for people to contend with, along with Christmas, and we all know that the little kiddies cant go without (or get cold).

Debt will increase this winter and house (selling) prices will in my opinion, fall.

I'm poised waiting to pounce on my mortgage free house which isnt that far away!!

Roll on the crash!!

SPembo

I'm not convinced that a crash will happen really now.

Yes housing has become very expensive, but it's also in short supply, and demand is only going to get higher and higher as population grows. New house building will make little impact to combat the demand, especially as they can't generally build on greenbelt land and building is pretty much confined to urban rebuilds to increase the number of homes available. So, could the future could see a higher percentage of people renting as housing starts being snapped up by businesses with the intent to let and will a home as the majority know them nowadays end up being some cramped multi-floored new apartment builds as the only choice of affordability to stepping onto the ladder.

deemy2004

nelly wrote:

expand on that a bit mate

I may be wrong, but across the board house price falls only occur when an economy is in recession... and during a recession.. buying / providing money for house purchases is the last thing on peoples minds, as they are more worried about their jobs or bad loans (banks).

Thus when house prices are falling, the economy will be contracting, and credit will be expensive due to the bad debts.

Ian_W

deemy wrote: I may be wrong, but across the board house price falls only occur when an economy is in recession...

Funny you should mention that deemy!!

Ian W [post #146]: My opinion, for what it's worth, is that it all depends on where the economy goes, if it takes a dive so will houses, if it booms again so will houses. Atm it's pretty static and so are ... !!

Repos are a big factor IMO in driving down house prices, if owners don't NEED to sell they sit tight, maybe reduce a bit but NO CRASH. Shares crash because once they start to slide everyone wants out. Houses are 70% owner occupied so even if prices slide a bit people don't sell just to get out of a falling market, unlike with shares. They strap in, buckle up and wait for the turbulance to end - no other choice really.

If you look at the repo figures [shock, horror Daily Express et al, THEY'VE DOUBLED!! Gasp, etc] they're still only about 10% of 1991 levels, still lower than almost any other period in the last 10/15yrs. So, despite the very high levels of consumer debt, even a cold winter and crimbo a coming isn't going to increase them tenfold IMO.

No, what we need's a really good recession with 2 or 3 million unemployed to get a good house price CRASH. There again, those 2 or 3 million might not be over chuffed at lower house prices.

deemy2004

Though house prices COULD fall without a recession

If the stock market continues its bull run, speculators in the housing market making 5-7% on rentals will steadily look to liquidate to move over to the stock market, and hence depresssing housing prices.

It requires solid year on year growth in stock prices so talking over several years

meanmachine_2

Ian_W wrote:

No, what we need's a really good recession with 2 or 3 million unemployed to get a good house price CRASH. There again, those 2 or 3 million might not be over chuffed at lower house prices.

Or you might argue that a few "good years" of very high house prices will trigger its own recession by sucking money out of people's pockets - as we're possibly seeing now.

House prices, unlike shares, are theoretically anchored to what people earn.

They don't suddenly crash like shares, but they can't go ever upwards like a helium balloon.

What's happened in the last few months is that there were no buyers at X prices, then int rates dropped a smidge, allowing some buyers to then afford X prices. But as those buyers fall away and fixed rates rise, I think we could be in the position we were before August.

That seems logical to me, but then house prices seem to defy all logic, so what do I know?!

adr0ck

the market always slows down at this time of yr....not many people buy houses coming up to christmas............

asking prices in my area are approx 5 - 10% to high

but people expect to knock this off when they put in a offer anyway

my own persaonal opinion is that prices will pretty much stagnate for the next 5 - 10 yrs.....they woofed up loads and now there probably slightly higher than they should be but i think all in all they will pretty much stay as they are.....

there just isnt enough homes to go round!!!!!!!!!!!!!

meanmachine.....you need to stop taking the money argument thing out of housebuying.......if u like a house and can afford it and you want to settle down then buy........if you don't want to settle down then don't....housebuying is expensive!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!....but its yours....theres somethin about that

people have never been able to afford an average home on a single wage.......it takes two