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  • FIRST POST
    • nigecooper
    • By nigecooper 8th Feb 18, 3:06 PM
    • 1Posts
    • 0Thanks
    nigecooper
    Premium Bonds
    • #1
    • 8th Feb 18, 3:06 PM
    Premium Bonds 8th Feb 18 at 3:06 PM
    Martin keeps saying that your chance of winning a prize with Premium Bonds in a year is zero if you only have £1000. I understand his argument about the median win but it is misleading. A more accurate description would be to say that, if you have £1000 of bonds, you should only expect to win once every two years with average luck. Equally, holding £1, you would expect to win once every 2000 years!
    Last edited by nigecooper; 08-02-2018 at 3:07 PM. Reason: error in odds
Page 1
    • Shashy
    • By Shashy 8th Feb 18, 3:18 PM
    • 89 Posts
    • 110 Thanks
    Shashy
    • #2
    • 8th Feb 18, 3:18 PM
    • #2
    • 8th Feb 18, 3:18 PM
    I've had £4k in since January 2017 and haven't won a penny, so I'd say Martin is spot on.
    • Superscrooge
    • By Superscrooge 8th Feb 18, 4:02 PM
    • 975 Posts
    • 691 Thanks
    Superscrooge
    • #3
    • 8th Feb 18, 4:02 PM
    • #3
    • 8th Feb 18, 4:02 PM
    Martin keeps saying that your chance of winning a prize with Premium Bonds in a year is zero if you only have £1000.
    Originally posted by nigecooper
    Can you give any evidence to back up that statement because I don't recall Martin EVER saying that?

    What he explained on his recent TV prog was that if you have £1,000 in premium bonds the most likely outcome is that in a typical year you win nothing. That is a lot different from saying you have a zero chance of winning.

    It's possible to win £1million with just £1 in premium bonds. Unlikely, but possible
    • worldtraveller
    • By worldtraveller 8th Feb 18, 4:12 PM
    • 11,538 Posts
    • 22,579 Thanks
    worldtraveller
    • #4
    • 8th Feb 18, 4:12 PM
    • #4
    • 8th Feb 18, 4:12 PM
    I've had a £1 bond since 1957 and I've never won anything!
    There is a pleasure in the pathless woods, There is a rapture on the lonely shore, There is society, where none intrudes, By the deep sea, and music in its roar: I love not man the less, but Nature more...
    • Alexland
    • By Alexland 8th Feb 18, 4:25 PM
    • 1,613 Posts
    • 1,104 Thanks
    Alexland
    • #5
    • 8th Feb 18, 4:25 PM
    • #5
    • 8th Feb 18, 4:25 PM
    I had £8k around 10-15 years ago and won around £250 within a few months. I considered that a good return which was unlikely to be beaten so sold up immediately and never bought any more. My little son has some and is unlikely to win anything.
    • Gers
    • By Gers 8th Feb 18, 6:21 PM
    • 6,098 Posts
    • 37,312 Thanks
    Gers
    • #6
    • 8th Feb 18, 6:21 PM
    • #6
    • 8th Feb 18, 6:21 PM
    I've had a £1 bond since 1957 and I've never won anything!
    Originally posted by worldtraveller
    I was given £2.00 worth in 1985 and also won nothing.
    • eskbanker
    • By eskbanker 8th Feb 18, 8:01 PM
    • 6,272 Posts
    • 6,346 Thanks
    eskbanker
    • #7
    • 8th Feb 18, 8:01 PM
    • #7
    • 8th Feb 18, 8:01 PM
    What he explained on his recent TV prog was that if you have £1,000 in premium bonds the most likely outcome is that in a typical year you win nothing. That is a lot different from saying you have a zero chance of winning.
    Originally posted by Superscrooge
    It's also expressed in similar terms in the very first line of the article on here:
    Line up everyone with £1,000 worth of Premium Bonds in order of their year's winnings, and the person halfway along would have won… not a penny! In fact, you'd need to walk past almost two-thirds of the line until you hit the first £25 winner.
    What are the odds that a new Premium Bonds thread will bring out a similarly lengthy line of people who have no idea of the basic concepts of statistics and probability?
    • ossie48
    • By ossie48 8th Feb 18, 8:16 PM
    • 97 Posts
    • 46 Thanks
    ossie48
    • #8
    • 8th Feb 18, 8:16 PM
    • #8
    • 8th Feb 18, 8:16 PM
    To be fair the opening page of the Premium Bonds website on NS&I does state

    Odds of winning for each £1 Bond number
    24,500 to 1


    I've had £500 from £30K over 10 months...everyone else will have something different.
    Last edited by ossie48; 08-02-2018 at 8:23 PM.
    • ValiantSon
    • By ValiantSon 8th Feb 18, 8:26 PM
    • 754 Posts
    • 616 Thanks
    ValiantSon
    • #9
    • 8th Feb 18, 8:26 PM
    • #9
    • 8th Feb 18, 8:26 PM
    Premium bonds are one of my pet hates.

    I honestly do not understand why most people would ever bother with them. They are suitable for people looking to hold cash who have maxed out available interest bearing accounts paying even a modicum of interest. In all other situations it is a gamble - not with the stake, but with the possible interest.

    I do have a few, but I'm not responsible for buying them. My grandparents and parents bought them when I was a child. In c.35-40 years I have won twice - £25 each time. I'd cash them in if I had any of the paperwork.
    • Alexland
    • By Alexland 8th Feb 18, 8:40 PM
    • 1,613 Posts
    • 1,104 Thanks
    Alexland
    I do have a few, but I'm not responsible for buying them. My grandparents and parents bought them when I was a child. In c.35-40 years I have won twice - £25 each time. I'd cash them in if I had any of the paperwork.
    Originally posted by ValiantSon
    If they are in your name then NS&I should be able to find them if you enquire? It's at least worth ensuring they have your latest address to send any prizes, etc.

    My son's, which are a regular gift from my parents, will probably be used to pay for driving lessons when he is one enough as I don't want to encourage him to keep them as long term assets.

    Alex
    • ValiantSon
    • By ValiantSon 8th Feb 18, 8:46 PM
    • 754 Posts
    • 616 Thanks
    ValiantSon
    If they are in your name then NS&I should be able to find them if you enquire? It's at least worth ensuring they have your latest address to send any prizes, etc.

    My son's, which are a regular gift from my parents, will probably be used to pay for driving lessons when he is one enough as I don't want to encourage him to keep them as long term assets.

    Alex
    Originally posted by Alexland
    They've still got my parents' address (they live in the same house I grew up in).

    I did contact them a few years ago about an NS&I savings account I had from when I was a child. I got them to change my address on that and then I closed it. They said they wouldn't change my address on the premium bonds, however. Oh well.
    • EachPenny
    • By EachPenny 8th Feb 18, 8:52 PM
    • 4,575 Posts
    • 9,320 Thanks
    EachPenny
    I've had a £1 bond since 1957 and I've never won anything!
    Originally posted by worldtraveller
    Well if you don't win anything for the next 1939 years I think you should write in and complain that your Bond is faulty.
    "In the future, everyone will be rich for 15 minutes"
    • stevedb11
    • By stevedb11 9th Feb 18, 11:31 AM
    • 99 Posts
    • 77 Thanks
    stevedb11
    I have had £1000 in bonds for 3 years and have just recieved my first prize: £25, it was a nice suprise.
    • AndyT678
    • By AndyT678 9th Feb 18, 12:25 PM
    • 735 Posts
    • 1,005 Thanks
    AndyT678
    I have had £1000 in bonds for 3 years and have just recieved my first prize: £25, it was a nice suprise.
    Originally posted by stevedb11
    That's nice for you. I've had £1,000 in bank accounts for the last 3 years that's earned £150 in interest. I wasn't at all surprised though.
    • Reaper
    • By Reaper 9th Feb 18, 1:32 PM
    • 6,177 Posts
    • 4,414 Thanks
    Reaper
    Martin keeps saying that your chance of winning a prize with Premium Bonds in a year is zero if you only have £1000.
    Originally posted by nigecooper
    Actually what Martin says on his premium bond calculator page is:
    With £1,000 in Premium Bonds, if you have average luck you would expect to win roughly NOTHING over 1 year
    Which is entirely accurate.
    • Katiehound
    • By Katiehound 9th Feb 18, 2:05 PM
    • 4,261 Posts
    • 38,585 Thanks
    Katiehound
    Personally, however low the interest rate I'd rather be putting my money in current accounts that are guaranteed to give me something back, not wait hopefully for a brown envelope to arrive.

    I don't do the National Lottery either! However I appreciate that with premium bonds you do get your 'investment' back - it's not a completely lost cause.
    Being polite and pleasant doesn't cost anything!
    If you found my posting helpful please hit the "Thanks" button!
    Many thanks

    2018 Wombling : Entrant 8 ...840MM (84p) + RK 7p= 91pence
    • stevedb11
    • By stevedb11 9th Feb 18, 8:28 PM
    • 99 Posts
    • 77 Thanks
    stevedb11
    That's nice for you. I've had £1,000 in bank accounts for the last 3 years that's earned £150 in interest. I wasn't at all surprised though.
    Originally posted by AndyT678
    Yes Andy,I was suprised as I never expected anything!!, I know its not the same as regular interest, but its just a tiny part of my overall savings,and I only keep it in there as I have a outside chance of winning a big prize, a bit of fun really.

    By the way, I assume the same as me you have a regular savings account to get 5% on your £1000.
    • dont_use_vistaprint
    • By dont_use_vistaprint 10th Feb 18, 11:43 AM
    • 28 Posts
    • 8 Thanks
    dont_use_vistaprint
    I disagree with Martin's thoughts on this. I like them as part of a balanced portfolio because the worst that can happen is you make no gains, unlike stocks, the best that can happen is you get lucky and make killing, like the lottery or gambling, but for slightly smarter people, and unlike bonds and savings which give no opportunity for decent gains. I hold 10K and Im hoping for a bit of luck! If it was less I probably wouldn't bother and if I don't get a few £25's Ill shift them to real bonds.
    Last edited by dont_use_vistaprint; 10-02-2018 at 11:45 AM.
    • eskbanker
    • By eskbanker 10th Feb 18, 11:51 AM
    • 6,272 Posts
    • 6,346 Thanks
    eskbanker
    I disagree with Martin's thoughts on this. I like them as part of a balanced portfolio....
    Originally posted by dont_use_vistaprint
    What makes you think your view is different from Martin's? The MSE piece goes to great lengths to explain the facts and compares PBs to various other options but doesn't conclude that they're a bad idea in all circumstances, just that there are usually ways of achieving a better return for most people.
    • dont_use_vistaprint
    • By dont_use_vistaprint 10th Feb 18, 11:55 AM
    • 28 Posts
    • 8 Thanks
    dont_use_vistaprint
    By the way, I assume the same as me you have a regular savings account to get 5% on your £1000.
    Originally posted by stevedb11
    What account gives 5% on £1000 for more than 24 months, without having to change your current account or mortgage.

    £100 is no way near enough incentive to have to switch an account and all the hassle that incurs on debits and credits , I would want a minimum of 5 x that over the duration of the saving accounts fixed period . The marketing people coming up with these offers must think we have nothing better to do than continually switch account :-)
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