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  • FIRST POST
    • BrockStoker
    • By BrockStoker 5th Feb 18, 8:32 PM
    • 194Posts
    • 87Thanks
    BrockStoker
    Correction in progress!
    • #1
    • 5th Feb 18, 8:32 PM
    Correction in progress! 5th Feb 18 at 8:32 PM
    I've just seen the largest (single day) spike in volatility I've ever experienced (currently @ 106%). Certainly it's looking like this is going to be the largest correction since 2015!

    https://uk.investing.com/indices/volatility-s-p-500-chart

    Time to look at what to buy with the cash I've been holding!

    More inclined to look at overseas assets/equities, but I have been thinking about buying some UK micro-cap for a while, and possibly some Chinese equities. Any one else shopping right now?
Page 10
    • BrockStoker
    • By BrockStoker 8th Feb 18, 5:58 PM
    • 194 Posts
    • 87 Thanks
    BrockStoker
    Still sitting on about 30% cash. If its a big sell off i am a buyer. If not then i am happy with my position.
    Originally posted by economic
    That's quite a bit of cash. I thought I was pushing it with around 14% here. However, if there are further significant falls, I'll be wishing I had 30%+!

    Like you, I'm also happy with my position if things settle down from here on in.
    • economic
    • By economic 8th Feb 18, 6:02 PM
    • 2,705 Posts
    • 1,438 Thanks
    economic
    That's quite a bit of cash. I thought I was pushing it with around 14% here. However, if there are further significant falls, I'll be wishing I had 30%+!

    Like you, I'm also happy with my position if things settle down from here on in.
    Originally posted by BrockStoker
    Yeh its only because i released some equity from my property whilst also accumulating earnings plus i was gifted some cash too.

    Its actually worse then that as i have about 10% in P2P. Am thinking now of derisking from P2P and feeding that into stocks.
    • BrockStoker
    • By BrockStoker 8th Feb 18, 9:02 PM
    • 194 Posts
    • 87 Thanks
    BrockStoker
    Looks like the correction is back on again. NASDAQ is down more than 3% just prior to close. It seems that the falling price of oil futures is not helping.

    Probably still not the "buy signal" I'm looking for tonight, but will be keeping a very close eye on the markets!
    • username12345678
    • By username12345678 8th Feb 18, 9:16 PM
    • 189 Posts
    • 97 Thanks
    username12345678
    I am 37% cash and another 8% or so in absolute returns/bonds.

    This is by accident of SIPP transfer timings.

    The question now is whether I follow my original plan in light of present volatility.

    My gut instinct is that I should.
    • eastcorkram
    • By eastcorkram 8th Feb 18, 9:17 PM
    • 119 Posts
    • 30 Thanks
    eastcorkram
    Another fall of over 1000 points again for the Dow. Over 4%.
    • Thrugelmir
    • By Thrugelmir 8th Feb 18, 10:24 PM
    • 57,539 Posts
    • 50,851 Thanks
    Thrugelmir
    It seems that the falling price of oil futures is not helping.
    Originally posted by BrockStoker
    North Sea oil is back on stream after downtime for maintenance. While US shale fracking output remains high. OPEC no longer dictates the price.
    Financial disasters happen when the last person who can remember what went wrong last time has left the building.
    • eskbanker
    • By eskbanker 9th Feb 18, 12:18 AM
    • 6,303 Posts
    • 6,370 Thanks
    eskbanker
    North Sea oil is back on stream after downtime for maintenance. While US shale fracking output remains high. OPEC no longer dictates the price.
    Originally posted by Thrugelmir
    North Sea oil production is a tiny fraction of OPEC's though - according to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_production (data sourced from US Energy Information Admnistration), the UK is 20th in the 2016 world rankings, with no less than ten separate OPEC countries producing more, so I'd contend that OPEC's influence on oil prices is somewhat more tangible than the UK's, although clearly there's more to the North Sea than the UK sector (Norway being 15th in the table).
    • Filo25
    • By Filo25 9th Feb 18, 1:01 AM
    • 1,324 Posts
    • 1,951 Thanks
    Filo25
    North Sea oil is back on stream after downtime for maintenance. While US shale fracking output remains high. OPEC no longer dictates the price.
    Originally posted by Thrugelmir
    Haven't followed oil much, is the general rule still that once the price heads over $60 a barrel or so the shale producers can ramp production economically, which pretty much caps the price around that range?
    • BrockStoker
    • By BrockStoker 9th Feb 18, 1:37 AM
    • 194 Posts
    • 87 Thanks
    BrockStoker
    Haven't followed oil much, is the general rule still that once the price heads over $60 a barrel or so the shale producers can ramp production economically, which pretty much caps the price around that range?
    Originally posted by Filo25
    I think the figure is closer to $55 right now. Brent oil is under that as of yesterday, but all eyes will be on the BH rig count later on today.
    • economic
    • By economic 9th Feb 18, 1:41 AM
    • 2,705 Posts
    • 1,438 Thanks
    economic
    If we have a steepening yield curve and global growth surely this is just a correction in the stock market that won!!!8217;t lead to anything serious and therefore this correction should be bought? Question is when. The general global market is back to levels seen in October last year. So far it!!!8217;s not so much the size of the correction more so how quick it has been. This probably makes it even more likely for a quick rebound.
    • BrockStoker
    • By BrockStoker 9th Feb 18, 2:25 AM
    • 194 Posts
    • 87 Thanks
    BrockStoker
    I'd agree with most of that. The sell off has been pretty indiscriminate so far. Good companies with strong Q4 results getting thrashed. I think there are likely to be strong rebounds in certain sectors at least, but I'm not so sure that the rebound will be quick.

    I'm betting at least some funds will have their lowest valuation points of the week tomorrow, but I think there is a good chance of even lower valuations next week, so I'm (probably) holding off buying once again, despite the possibility that the current opportunity may be over after today.

    As of writing the Nikkei 225 is down around 3.5%, and NASDAQ/S&P 500 futures are also in the red.
    • Alexland
    • By Alexland 9th Feb 18, 6:51 AM
    • 1,667 Posts
    • 1,133 Thanks
    Alexland
    Yeah I am holding back on converting more bonds and cash to equities unless the market drops a further 5-10% in the next week.
    • Broken Biscuits
    • By Broken Biscuits 9th Feb 18, 7:34 AM
    • 340 Posts
    • 654 Thanks
    Broken Biscuits
    Selling out of some of my short dated p2p and will either drip feed into equities or buy more longer dated (quality) p2p, depending on how the market moves.
    That was always the plan.
    Surprised my p2p is selling so easily, I thought there might be a large bottleneck with most having similar plans. Sell the things you hold that suffer no sale penalty to buy the things on sale?
    • BananaRepublic
    • By BananaRepublic 9th Feb 18, 7:57 AM
    • 1,174 Posts
    • 851 Thanks
    BananaRepublic
    Well, it has been a correction now, and about time too. I will fill my SIPP with a large lump sum come the next tax year, so Im hoping the markets wont rebound, a nice downwards slope would suit me just fine. It does seem as if there is no large underlying structural problem, unlike the GFC, or the dot com bubble, so I suspect the markets will bumble along, unless there is something below the surface. Odd that it corresponds to the Bitcoin crash. Coincidence? I believe the market capitalisation of Bitcoin is small beer.
    • Bimbly
    • By Bimbly 9th Feb 18, 8:05 AM
    • 38 Posts
    • 34 Thanks
    Bimbly
    This is certainly "fun".

    I have a DC pension pot in addition to my work DB pension which I'd invested in a bit over the years. December is both my birthday and the time I do my tax return so that was the time I decided to re-evaluate. I decided to invest a lot more into this DC pot and move it out of the deafult fund which was heavily bias towards UK equities and corporate bonds. I went for a whole market approach.

    What a time to pick! 15k was transferred, my new higher regular contribution of £572 went in. The size of my pot then went to £14.5k. An apparent loss of a grand. Pretty much straight away.

    However, I have 11 years before I want to draw this money. If the markets are going to dip/correct/crash, I am far better that they do this at the beginning of the period and not the end. I am reminded of my house which I bought ten years ago at £265k and just one year later was told it was worth 250k. Now it's worth maybe 400k. So it worked out.

    Am thinking I will stick with plan of investing in all market equities this year (so my contributions buy at lower prices). Next year I might put contributions into a more balanced fund while keeping the all market equities going until an appropriate point nearer retirement.

    When I was putting small amounts into this pot and into default investments I looked at it maybe once a year. Making all these changes this past month or so meant I logged in a lot. It really is that rollercoaster ride where you're clinging on telling yourself it really was a good idea. Intellectually I have faith, but I have questioned my actions recently.
    • bowlhead99
    • By bowlhead99 9th Feb 18, 8:06 AM
    • 7,290 Posts
    • 13,311 Thanks
    bowlhead99
    Surprised my p2p is selling so easily, I thought there might be a large bottleneck with most having similar plans.
    Originally posted by Broken Biscuits
    There will be a great deal of people who are holding P2P assets precisely because they don't want to hold volatile assets with equity risks. So to presume that 'most' would stampede through the exit of P2P just because equities had given up a few percent of their gains over recent years, seems an overblown assumption.

    Even if the "correction" gives a rebalancing opportunity - many P2P investors are unsophisticated.
    • mollycat
    • By mollycat 9th Feb 18, 8:27 AM
    • 989 Posts
    • 1,962 Thanks
    mollycat

    Even if the "correction" gives a rebalancing opportunity - many P2P investors are unsophisticated.
    Originally posted by bowlhead99
    Nice inverted commas; my thoughts exactly.
    • msallen
    • By msallen 9th Feb 18, 8:42 AM
    • 711 Posts
    • 705 Thanks
    msallen
    Selling out of some of my short dated p2p and will either drip feed into equities or buy more longer dated (quality) p2p, depending on how the market moves.
    That was always the plan.
    Surprised my p2p is selling so easily, I thought there might be a large bottleneck with most having similar plans. Sell the things you hold that suffer no sale penalty to buy the things on sale?
    Originally posted by Broken Biscuits
    You don't mention which p2p platform(s) you are talking about, but on ABLrate, which has a secondary market which allows discounts/premiums, the price of everything has gone up over the last few days, indicating that more money has gone into the platform in that time.
    • BananaRepublic
    • By BananaRepublic 9th Feb 18, 9:15 AM
    • 1,174 Posts
    • 851 Thanks
    BananaRepublic
    This is officially a correction, due to markets dropping more than 10%. The question is how much further they have to fall.

    Bimbly: Your thinking with respect to your recent contributions is spot on, think in the long term. As to whether or not large sums should go in in a few months, we shall see. It!!!8217;s quite exciting to have a real correction, not that I miss the GFC.
    • mollycat
    • By mollycat 9th Feb 18, 9:28 AM
    • 989 Posts
    • 1,962 Thanks
    mollycat
    Down Jones on 9th November 23,461.
    Dow Jones on 9th Feb 23,860.

    Ftse 100 on 1st December 7300.
    Ftse 100 0n 09th Feb 7142.

    Of course this could be the start of any correction; as could have happened a month ago, or will happen at a point in the future.

    Let's not let the facts get in the way of any internet based hysteria now, eh!
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