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  • FIRST POST
    • ColdIron
    • By ColdIron 22nd Dec 17, 10:32 AM
    • 3,889Posts
    • 4,738Thanks
    ColdIron
    Bitcoin's gone a bit quiet
    • #1
    • 22nd Dec 17, 10:32 AM
    Bitcoin's gone a bit quiet 22nd Dec 17 at 10:32 AM
    A 30% plunge in a week, approaching 2008/09 GFC proportions, and not a peep. I wonder how many have been badly burned by buying into the recent hype and are now hoping for a 50% rise just to cover losses. I'm not trying to be inflammatory, just an observation about the recent lack of commentary and threads
Page 3
    • RHemmings
    • By RHemmings 24th Dec 17, 11:18 AM
    • 2,049 Posts
    • 1,305 Thanks
    RHemmings
    I have noticed that in forum threads and newspaper comment sections that there is a pattern. When Bitcoin goes down, then bounces a bit, there are lots of comments trumpeting the 'recovery' in value. Then, when it goes down again wiping out that 'recovery': tumbleweeds.

    Like any bubble, a lot of people have made money. That doesn't mean that it's a sensible investment now.
    • Carrieanne
    • By Carrieanne 24th Dec 17, 1:52 PM
    • 80 Posts
    • 78 Thanks
    Carrieanne
    I wouldn't consider putting one or two percent of my net worth on a runner in the 2:15 at Kempton Park, nor of buying a similar amount's worth of US Dollars as an investment, so I certainly wouldn't even think about doing so with a cryptocurrency. That doesn't seem even vaguely sensible to me.
    Originally posted by fwor
    You went to an extreme by making your gee-gee analogy. To me Bitcoin and other crypto currencies represent intangible nothingness. Nevertheless, there's no denying a vast number of people have faith in them.
    • Wobblydeb
    • By Wobblydeb 19th Jan 18, 12:00 PM
    • 912 Posts
    • 1,411 Thanks
    Wobblydeb
    Surely the nearest comparison is to ask if you want to put 1% of your wealth into Venezuelan Bolivars?
    I've got a plan so cunning you could put a tail on it and call it a weasel.
    • Qubit
    • By Qubit 19th Jan 18, 1:35 PM
    • 44 Posts
    • 8 Thanks
    Qubit
    Surely the nearest comparison is to ask if you want to put 1% of your wealth into Venezuelan Bolivars?
    Originally posted by Wobblydeb
    Nope, but Venezuela is one of the countries where Bitcoin is proving VERY popular. Because their own currency has an inflation rate of 700% + currently.
    • sabretoothtigger
    • By sabretoothtigger 19th Jan 18, 7:17 PM
    • 10,001 Posts
    • 6,600 Thanks
    sabretoothtigger
    Vietnam and some African countries, possibly other parts of south america are actually more volatile then Bitcoin. The main negative for BTC is the fees and they need to fix this, Im told there are solutions on the way but its a fairly serious lapse of judgement.

    I think another crypto will take over, just like theres Visa but also Mastercard, etc.
    Its not solid money but alot of the world even billions are stuck with bad banking conditions and can use btc usefully which means crypto of one kind or another will continue to be used while useful.

    Of course you in an armchair by the fire with slippers, pipe and crumpets aplenty dont need BTC, everyone in the UK is basically ok or has services in grasp, but its about the wider world and I reckon it'll enable growth some
    Last edited by sabretoothtigger; 19-01-2018 at 7:20 PM.
    Tokyo residential prices have gone from 4x London in 1990 to ¼ London in 2014
    Maybe this is one of those cases where you can’t go home again,
    by Ben S. Bernanke, former Fed chairman
    • planteria
    • By planteria 19th Jan 18, 11:39 PM
    • 4,964 Posts
    • 1,098 Thanks
    planteria
    ..its a fairly serious lapse of judgement.
    Originally posted by sabretoothtigger
    ....by who?
    • Bella2007
    • By Bella2007 20th Jan 18, 9:34 AM
    • 14 Posts
    • 8 Thanks
    Bella2007
    I've recently bought BTC and ETH on Coinbase, just a couple of hundred to see how it goes. Got £7 for using a referral code from someone on MSE, too.

    I have other super safe savings in bonds but like having riskier pots like peer-to-peer lending & cryptos. Even if I do lose the money, I can afford it (got it free from Topcashback) and it's quite entertaining to see the price go up and down.
    Bella2007


    Vital statistics:
    £7,278 of debt to bust in 2018
    £250 bank switch, £120 from Topcashback £64 Quidco
    • sabretoothtigger
    • By sabretoothtigger 6th Feb 18, 1:30 AM
    • 10,001 Posts
    • 6,600 Thanks
    sabretoothtigger
    ....by who?
    Originally posted by planteria
    Those in power now or possibly even a flaw in the protocol by the originator Satoshi.

    However its open source which means adaption and improvisation is open, the market itself can determine a different direction. Apparently its grid locked, a standoff between miners who benefit from the fees and others who want to circumvent the logjam of transactions.

    In theory miners are the power which determines, too big a flaw and BTC will lose out. I do think they will reroute to allow me to send 5 dollar without losing my hat.
    Computers are all about efficiency, repetition with ease not exactly unique transactions, it must progress to allow cups of coffee to be sold or BTC will jam its own gears.

    The highest rates of growth comes from the smallest and poorest, its an ironic feature to capitalism. If BTC or other crypto enables the developing world, its justified or if its a gambling ticket to speculate for the rich with a $30 fee it will destroy itself from within.

    Forget the news, the externals pressures imo, its the internal struggle which is greatest. Lightning network is criticised as not crypto, some comprise or flexibility is needed. I'm fairly certain someone will figure out a path.
    Last edited by sabretoothtigger; 06-02-2018 at 1:32 AM.
    Tokyo residential prices have gone from 4x London in 1990 to ¼ London in 2014
    Maybe this is one of those cases where you can’t go home again,
    by Ben S. Bernanke, former Fed chairman
    • worldtraveller
    • By worldtraveller 6th Feb 18, 9:56 AM
    • 11,534 Posts
    • 22,570 Thanks
    worldtraveller
    BTC briefly fell below USD6,000 today for the first time since mid-November, down nearly 70% from the record high in December and around 55% since the start of the year.

    It's clearly still following, very closely, the Jean-Paul Rodrigue classic 'Stages in a Bubble' chart.
    Last edited by worldtraveller; 06-02-2018 at 10:04 AM.
    There is a pleasure in the pathless woods, There is a rapture on the lonely shore, There is society, where none intrudes, By the deep sea, and music in its roar: I love not man the less, but Nature more...
    • Malthusian
    • By Malthusian 6th Feb 18, 11:59 AM
    • 3,698 Posts
    • 5,760 Thanks
    Malthusian
    Whatever one's view of Bitcoin (and other cryptos), sticking a percent or two of one's net worth into it/them for diversification purposes would seem a sensible play.
    Originally posted by Carrieanne
    The problem with this theory is that there are 3,000 cryptocurrencies. Even if only 10% of them are genuine attempts to create a new currency rather than pump-and-dump Ponzi schemes, that still means you have to put 300% of your portfolio in various cryptocurrencies in the hope that they go to the moon, leaving no room for assets which have a positive expected return.
    • Lord Baltimore
    • By Lord Baltimore 7th Feb 18, 1:22 PM
    • 1,312 Posts
    • 1,304 Thanks
    Lord Baltimore
    A prophetic reminder:
    Timothy 6:10
    For the love of money is the root of all evil: which while some coveted after, they have erred from the faith, and pierced themselves through with many sorrows.
    all your base are belong to us
    • TBC15
    • By TBC15 7th Feb 18, 1:48 PM
    • 373 Posts
    • 172 Thanks
    TBC15
    A prophetic reminder:
    Originally posted by Lord Baltimore
    This Timothy guy obviously an early riser, do you have a link to his blog? Does he have any take on safe withdrawal rates?
    • BananaRepublic
    • By BananaRepublic 7th Feb 18, 3:19 PM
    • 1,173 Posts
    • 850 Thanks
    BananaRepublic
    This Timothy guy obviously an early riser, do you have a link to his blog? Does he have any take on safe withdrawal rates?
    Originally posted by TBC15
    Be careful when dealing with Timothy, he has friends in high places.
    • TBC15
    • By TBC15 7th Feb 18, 3:39 PM
    • 373 Posts
    • 172 Thanks
    TBC15
    Are we talking the Shard? Sounds connected.
    • redux
    • By redux 7th Feb 18, 3:52 PM
    • 18,026 Posts
    • 23,206 Thanks
    redux
    BTC briefly fell below USD6,000 today for the first time since mid-November, down nearly 70% from the record high in December and around 55% since the start of the year.

    It's clearly still following, very closely, the Jean-Paul Rodrigue classic 'Stages in a Bubble' chart.
    Originally posted by worldtraveller
    Some people must be desperate, trying to talk it up to a nutty number by the end of the year.
    • coastline
    • By coastline 7th Feb 18, 4:13 PM
    • 938 Posts
    • 1,081 Thanks
    coastline
    BTC briefly fell below USD6,000 today for the first time since mid-November, down nearly 70% from the record high in December and around 55% since the start of the year.

    It's clearly still following, very closely, the Jean-Paul Rodrigue classic 'Stages in a Bubble' chart.
    Originally posted by worldtraveller
    Funny how they play out..



    • worldtraveller
    • By worldtraveller 7th Feb 18, 5:00 PM
    • 11,534 Posts
    • 22,570 Thanks
    worldtraveller
    Funny how they play out..



    Originally posted by coastline
    Thanks for the charts coastline. I've said in posts from many weeks ago that, as a contrarian, I may well dip in to BTC, for the first time BTW, IF and when it gets to the "Despair" phase (generally an overshoot from the mean average). It's really no different from any other investment which can often follow these, or similar phases, especially nowadays with social media involved more & more and the sheeple mentality it often stimulates. It's often said that when your taxi driver tells you to invest in something, it's clearly time to get out!

    I may dip in slightly earlier, but, quite frankly, I don't care if it doesn't hit that phase either, as there are other opportunities elsewhere, and I'm never in a rush to do anything.
    Last edited by worldtraveller; 08-02-2018 at 1:39 AM.
    There is a pleasure in the pathless woods, There is a rapture on the lonely shore, There is society, where none intrudes, By the deep sea, and music in its roar: I love not man the less, but Nature more...
    • jimjames
    • By jimjames 7th Feb 18, 5:31 PM
    • 12,387 Posts
    • 10,976 Thanks
    jimjames
    Nope, but Venezuela is one of the countries where Bitcoin is proving VERY popular. Because their own currency has an inflation rate of 700% + currently.
    Originally posted by Qubit
    Surely inflation in Bitcoin is higher than that when it's risen so much albeit now dropped by a massive amount too?
    Remember the saying: if it looks too good to be true it almost certainly is.
    • Economic
    • By Economic 7th Feb 18, 6:50 PM
    • 187 Posts
    • 157 Thanks
    Economic
    Surely inflation in Bitcoin is higher than that when it's risen so much albeit now dropped by a massive amount too?
    Originally posted by jimjames
    The increase in the price of Bitcoin would have led to massive deflation if Bitcoin was used as currency, as inflation is an increase in the price of a basket of goods in terms of the currency (the value of the currency decreases in real terms).
    • Alexland
    • By Alexland 7th Feb 18, 8:59 PM
    • 1,595 Posts
    • 1,099 Thanks
    Alexland
    Well according to coastline's graph we might soon hit the pit of despair in which case even the more sensible of us could consider investing before it returns to the mean? If only I thought it was worth anything at all.
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