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  • FIRST POST
    • Zola.
    • By Zola. 2nd Dec 17, 7:04 PM
    • 1,141Posts
    • 439Thanks
    Zola.
    Woodford Predictions
    • #1
    • 2nd Dec 17, 7:04 PM
    Woodford Predictions 2nd Dec 17 at 7:04 PM
    https://www.ft.com/content/64bfef5c-d5d0-11e7-8c9a-d9c0a5c8d5c9

    Has a point about Bitcoin for sure, but for all else, how can he know for sure..other than it is inevitable, some day!
    Last edited by Zola.; 02-12-2017 at 7:11 PM.
Page 3
    • talexuser
    • By talexuser 5th Dec 17, 2:17 PM
    • 2,301 Posts
    • 1,786 Thanks
    talexuser
    maybe "sacked" was too strong,
    Originally posted by bostonerimus
    or maybe it was completely and utterly wrong.
    • brasso
    • By brasso 5th Dec 17, 10:45 PM
    • 722 Posts
    • 854 Thanks
    brasso
    He didnt get the sack, he set up on his own. Dont be a numpty
    Originally posted by atush
    Getting sacked and setting up on your own are not mutually exclusive! That said, I think most would agree that Woodford, who brought a lot of success to Invesco over the years, is very unlikely to have been sacked. There may well have been a growing difference of opinion or style -- this happens in every business. But here, given the sums of money involved, I strongly suspect that Woodford's departure will have been discussed and agreed in great detail by all concerned over a lengthy period.
    ----------------------------------------

    I am not an IFA!
    • talexuser
    • By talexuser 6th Dec 17, 12:01 AM
    • 2,301 Posts
    • 1,786 Thanks
    talexuser
    Bandying returns around the Financial Times says he turned £1000 into £23000 over 25 years (no mention of the years but I guess a combination of Perpetual and the last 3 years in his own firm?). That works out something over 13% a year average
    • TheTracker
    • By TheTracker 6th Dec 17, 6:17 AM
    • 1,129 Posts
    • 1,120 Thanks
    TheTracker
    Bandying returns around the Financial Times says he turned £1000 into £23000 over 25 years (no mention of the years but I guess a combination of Perpetual and the last 3 years in his own firm?). That works out something over 13% a year average
    Originally posted by talexuser
    It’s the figure bandied around 3 years ago.
    http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-2627587/Should-follow-Neil-Woodford-star-manager-turned-1-000-25-000.html
    • talexuser
    • By talexuser 6th Dec 17, 12:54 PM
    • 2,301 Posts
    • 1,786 Thanks
    talexuser
    Thanks, it's very slightly different saying High Income turned £1000 into £25349 in 26 years, that would be compound average very slightly less than the latest article, maybe his own firms years have now been taken into account or the very latest dip has not? In any case I'd be genuinely interested in the UK tracker that has done that.
    • bostonerimus
    • By bostonerimus 6th Dec 17, 1:05 PM
    • 1,213 Posts
    • 668 Thanks
    bostonerimus
    Bandying returns around the Financial Times says he turned £1000 into £23000 over 25 years (no mention of the years but I guess a combination of Perpetual and the last 3 years in his own firm?). That works out something over 13% a year average
    Originally posted by talexuser
    Yes I worked out 13% too, which is fantastic. He managed to do well through some major down turns and handsomely beat a 60/40 indexing strategy. Since leaving Invesco his equity income fund is returning an annualized 5.2% and my 70/30 indexing portfolio has returns 8% so what to do?

    I don't use active funds as I believe they introduce the extra unknown factor of the manager. If I buy the index then I can look back at historical markets and maybe use the statistics of those to guide my investing.
    Misanthrope in search of similar for mutual loathing
    • fun4everyone
    • By fun4everyone 6th Dec 17, 1:17 PM
    • 850 Posts
    • 1,385 Thanks
    fun4everyone
    I don't use active funds as I believe they introduce the extra unknown factor of the manager. If I buy the index then I can look back at historical markets and maybe use the statistics of those to guide my investing.
    Originally posted by bostonerimus
    So you can use long term past performance to predict indexing results, but you cant use long term past performance to predict how an active manager will fair vs an index?

    It is not that difficult to find areas where managers can add performance to investment in a sector. That's for those of us who are retail investors in the UK though. I wouldn't use actives in every sector. Large caps in the USA being the obvious one to index (for one). I believe in the US tax treatment on actively managed funds is harsh and you are better off just indexing everything if you live there.

    There are also many millions of investors in poor active funds here in the UK, sold on bad advice due to commission or backhanders or paid for deals or whatever. That is where the bad rep is coming from as the funds they are in charge high fees and are basically closet trackers. It's also the safest (and the best generic) advice to tell people to index everything.

    If you are willing to put in a little research and have an appropriately constructed portfolio, actives can very much enhance your direction and return.
    • talexuser
    • By talexuser 6th Dec 17, 5:56 PM
    • 2,301 Posts
    • 1,786 Thanks
    talexuser
    I agree, I was active for over 20 years because liked a punt on the managers record, and was very happy with the result. In the beginning there were not that many trackers here anyway. As things grow and you keep adding to Peps/Isas you get to the stage there aren't that many outstanding managers to choose from the dross, so now have some trackers too, particularly world and US funds.
    • bostonerimus
    • By bostonerimus 6th Dec 17, 6:01 PM
    • 1,213 Posts
    • 668 Thanks
    bostonerimus
    So you can use long term past performance to predict indexing results, but you cant use long term past performance to predict how an active manager will fair vs an index?
    Originally posted by fun4everyone
    I didn't say that.....you can certainly do the statistics with active or index investing.....it's just that there's an added uncertainty with an active manager. Assuming markets are efficient is dodgy enough without the selection biases and errors of a manager to deal with too.

    Of course there are active funds that beat indexes and you can always create a stellar portfolio of historical active returns, but equally you can create some stinkers. Woodford was good at Invesco, but he's not as good on his own so far. I'll be happy for the active investor that can beat a 60/40 indexing 30 year annual average return of 8.5%. 25 years of Woodford at Invesco would have easily done that, but how many were with him the whole way?

    The active investor must always believe that they can use their research to beat the index., so we are doing an active vs passive comparison test in another tread and and it would be good for you to join and see how your research does over the next year. I expect to be mid pack with my indexes and I expect all the active investors believe they will beat me. The sample size is small, but it should be interesting.
    Last edited by bostonerimus; 06-12-2017 at 7:18 PM.
    Misanthrope in search of similar for mutual loathing
    • Kendall80
    • By Kendall80 7th Dec 17, 2:11 PM
    • 821 Posts
    • 533 Thanks
    Kendall80
    Just watched a video interview with Woodford on CSD. Still seems confident in his Equity Income fund. I have to say looking at my portfolio where among the funds I have Lindsell-Train - there is a 43% gap between the 2 over the precise period I have held them. I'd like to know how he thinks hes going to bridge that gap.
    • bostonerimus
    • By bostonerimus 7th Dec 17, 3:32 PM
    • 1,213 Posts
    • 668 Thanks
    bostonerimus
    Just watched a video interview with Woodford on CSD. Still seems confident in his Equity Income fund. I have to say looking at my portfolio where among the funds I have Lindsell-Train - there is a 43% gap between the 2 over the precise period I have held them. I'd like to know how he thinks hes going to bridge that gap.
    Originally posted by Kendall80
    It's a manager's job to be confident. The telling thing is that he's giving interviews...... presumably to reassure his investors
    Misanthrope in search of similar for mutual loathing
    • OldMusicGuy
    • By OldMusicGuy 7th Dec 17, 3:42 PM
    • 197 Posts
    • 360 Thanks
    OldMusicGuy
    I use active funds for dividend-based income. I believe that's where detailed research and thus a fund manager has value. I don't care about "beating the market", all I want to do is to be close to the market average, so passive funds work for me when looking at the market more broadly (I hold both active and passive funds). But then I am decumulating rather than chasing aggressive growth.
    • bostonerimus
    • By bostonerimus 7th Dec 17, 4:09 PM
    • 1,213 Posts
    • 668 Thanks
    bostonerimus
    . But then I am decumulating rather than chasing aggressive growth.
    Originally posted by OldMusicGuy
    Growth is still important to keep up with inflation.
    Misanthrope in search of similar for mutual loathing
    • OldMusicGuy
    • By OldMusicGuy 7th Dec 17, 5:35 PM
    • 197 Posts
    • 360 Thanks
    OldMusicGuy
    Growth is still important to keep up with inflation.
    Originally posted by bostonerimus
    Which is why around market average returns in the long term is fine for me. And I don't really believe in "inflation" because I will be deflating my lifestyle significantly
    • newatc
    • By newatc 7th Dec 17, 6:13 PM
    • 110 Posts
    • 91 Thanks
    newatc
    Which is why around market average returns in the long term is fine for me. And I don't really believe in "inflation" because I will be deflating my lifestyle significantly
    Originally posted by OldMusicGuy
    I take a similar view except I tend to think it is my lifestyle seems to be deflating without any encouragement from me
    • bostonerimus
    • By bostonerimus 7th Dec 17, 7:26 PM
    • 1,213 Posts
    • 668 Thanks
    bostonerimus
    Which is why around market average returns in the long term is fine for me. And I don't really believe in "inflation" because I will be deflating my lifestyle significantly
    Originally posted by OldMusicGuy
    Yes, surveys show that spending does decrease somewhat with age. However, many people have extra costs like home care and just living longer than expected, so I think it's best to plan for the worst......or maybe that should be the best as far as longevity goes. I expect returns after inflation of around 5% from my purely index approach, but that's only based on historical data.
    Misanthrope in search of similar for mutual loathing
    • stardust09
    • By stardust09 8th Dec 17, 1:31 PM
    • 242 Posts
    • 214 Thanks
    stardust09
    I might be missing something, as I'm an amateur, but Woodford's fund has only been around for 3.5 years. Everyone tells me a 5 year period is minimum to be in the stock market. And his 3.5 year performance is being judged on a 25 year track record with his other fund(s). Isn't that a bit premature? I'm sure he's given interviews like this many times over the previous 25 years. I'm not judging him for many years yet, especially given the craziness of the state of the world right now and the financial markets.
    • talexuser
    • By talexuser 8th Dec 17, 5:34 PM
    • 2,301 Posts
    • 1,786 Thanks
    talexuser
    I might be missing something, as I'm an amateur, but Woodford's fund has only been around for 3.5 years.
    Originally posted by stardust09
    Ironically Best just published their latest top rated funds lists and Woodford comes out way out top of their Income sector recommendations over 3 years, and 16% ahead of the Vanguard UK Income index. Naturally we have to wait to see how it all pans out over 5 years and more, but I'm always amazed how those that profess to adhere to long term investing react to relative short term performance, let alone how tracker fans try to pretend there are no managers that consistently outperform over the long term when there actually are a few.
    • Thrugelmir
    • By Thrugelmir 8th Dec 17, 5:52 PM
    • 56,196 Posts
    • 49,573 Thanks
    Thrugelmir
    especially given the craziness of the state of the world right now and the financial markets.
    Originally posted by stardust09
    Particularly when you get companies such as Just Eat joining the FTSE 100. Current market valuation £5.42 billion. Forecast profits for 2017 around the £160 million mark. That's a demanding rating. When discreionary spend could vanish overnight.

    Trackers of course get sucked in. As have to hold the stock. Creating a self perpetuating vortex.
    “Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble”
    ― Warren Buffett
    • bostonerimus
    • By bostonerimus 8th Dec 17, 7:59 PM
    • 1,213 Posts
    • 668 Thanks
    bostonerimus
    Ironically Best just published their latest top rated funds lists and Woodford comes out way out top of their Income sector recommendations over 3 years, and 16% ahead of the Vanguard UK Income index. Naturally we have to wait to see how it all pans out over 5 years and more, but I'm always amazed how those that profess to adhere to long term investing react to relative short term performance, let alone how tracker fans try to pretend there are no managers that consistently outperform over the long term when there actually are a few.
    Originally posted by talexuser
    Tracker fans know that some active managers will beat them. If you look backwards you can obviously see the winners and the small number that have done consistently well over the long term. The trick is to pick those winners in the future. Managers like Woodford have done well in that past, but he's now having a number of below average years. He might do well next year. If you use trackers you are accepting "average" performance and IMO stepping back from the hubris of the active investing to a place where you can be more certain of your returns and thus better plan for the future.
    Misanthrope in search of similar for mutual loathing
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