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  • FIRST POST
    • Zola.
    • By Zola. 2nd Dec 17, 7:04 PM
    • 1,160Posts
    • 442Thanks
    Zola.
    Woodford Predictions
    • #1
    • 2nd Dec 17, 7:04 PM
    Woodford Predictions 2nd Dec 17 at 7:04 PM
    https://www.ft.com/content/64bfef5c-d5d0-11e7-8c9a-d9c0a5c8d5c9

    Has a point about Bitcoin for sure, but for all else, how can he know for sure..other than it is inevitable, some day!
    Last edited by Zola.; 02-12-2017 at 7:11 PM.
Page 1
    • OldMusicGuy
    • By OldMusicGuy 2nd Dec 17, 9:02 PM
    • 209 Posts
    • 392 Thanks
    OldMusicGuy
    • #2
    • 2nd Dec 17, 9:02 PM
    • #2
    • 2nd Dec 17, 9:02 PM
    Link is behind a paywall. Please give us a summary of the main points.
    • talexuser
    • By talexuser 2nd Dec 17, 9:08 PM
    • 2,305 Posts
    • 1,792 Thanks
    talexuser
    • #3
    • 2nd Dec 17, 9:08 PM
    • #3
    • 2nd Dec 17, 9:08 PM
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/shares/neil-woodford-says-markets-bubble-will-inevitably-burst/
    • bostonerimus
    • By bostonerimus 2nd Dec 17, 9:24 PM
    • 1,242 Posts
    • 693 Thanks
    bostonerimus
    • #4
    • 2nd Dec 17, 9:24 PM
    • #4
    • 2nd Dec 17, 9:24 PM
    Wow I'm shocked.....it shouldn't need some overpaid fund manager to tell anyone that we are in a bubble. This is obviously a nice little advertisement for Woodford in an effort to rationalize his recent poor performance and to convince some more punters to give him their money. I won't be buying anything he's selling.
    Misanthrope in search of similar for mutual loathing
    • A_T
    • By A_T 2nd Dec 17, 9:32 PM
    • 242 Posts
    • 123 Thanks
    A_T
    • #5
    • 2nd Dec 17, 9:32 PM
    • #5
    • 2nd Dec 17, 9:32 PM
    Sounds like he's hoping there will be a crash so his conservative stocks will look good in comparison to others. But how much growth will he have missed out on in the meantime?
    Last edited by A_T; 02-12-2017 at 9:37 PM.
    • capital0ne
    • By capital0ne 2nd Dec 17, 11:06 PM
    • 149 Posts
    • 80 Thanks
    capital0ne
    • #6
    • 2nd Dec 17, 11:06 PM
    • #6
    • 2nd Dec 17, 11:06 PM
    Well, he's not done so well recently, just pure luck he's done so well in the past - in reality no one knows what will happen - it's all just guess work with a bit of research thrown in for good measure.
    • Kendall80
    • By Kendall80 3rd Dec 17, 2:08 AM
    • 821 Posts
    • 533 Thanks
    Kendall80
    • #7
    • 3rd Dec 17, 2:08 AM
    • #7
    • 3rd Dec 17, 2:08 AM
    Well, he's not done so well recently, just pure luck he's done so well in the past - in reality no one knows what will happen - it's all just guess work with a bit of research thrown in for good measure.
    Originally posted by capital0ne

    Indeed - it has been a dismal performance by him.
    • Glen Clark
    • By Glen Clark 3rd Dec 17, 8:54 AM
    • 3,920 Posts
    • 2,921 Thanks
    Glen Clark
    • #8
    • 3rd Dec 17, 8:54 AM
    • #8
    • 3rd Dec 17, 8:54 AM
    Looks like just another fund manager talking his book. Ramping stocks he has bought, and seeking new investors to replace those deserting him because of his recent poor performance.
    Its called 'Market Noise', and its best ignored.
    “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” --Upton Sinclair
    • ischofie1
    • By ischofie1 3rd Dec 17, 9:16 AM
    • 189 Posts
    • 152 Thanks
    ischofie1
    • #9
    • 3rd Dec 17, 9:16 AM
    • #9
    • 3rd Dec 17, 9:16 AM
    Reminds me of Mervin King post Brexit vote.
    He called an imminent market crash inevitable.
    So here you had someone who's job it was in 2007 to foresee market crashes & he was asleep at the wheel but he definitely could call a crash post Brexit when it wasn't his job to do so.
    Oh & markets ripped up post Brexit.
    I'd put Woodford'd opinion as nothing more than guesswork & like a broken clock, he'll be right one day.
    • talexuser
    • By talexuser 3rd Dec 17, 10:50 AM
    • 2,305 Posts
    • 1,792 Thanks
    talexuser
    Reminds me very much what many were saying about his funds lagging during the tech boom 17 years ago.
    • BananaRepublic
    • By BananaRepublic 3rd Dec 17, 10:53 AM
    • 938 Posts
    • 680 Thanks
    BananaRepublic
    Reminds me very much what many were saying about his funds lagging during the tech boom 17 years ago.
    Originally posted by talexuser
    It does. He was lambasted at the time, but later shown to be right. Maybe it is time to buy into his funds?
    • OldMusicGuy
    • By OldMusicGuy 3rd Dec 17, 11:16 AM
    • 209 Posts
    • 392 Thanks
    OldMusicGuy
    You pays your money and takes your choice. I did ok out of his Equity Income fund but I sold up before the performance faltered (I got nervous a while back and went all cash, then realised the stupidity of trying to time the market ). None of these fund managers really know what is going to happen. Some just get lucky more than others. They make guesses that are based on a lot more research than most of us could ever carry out.

    As someone involved in the tech industry, I applauded his stance on the tech boom (I saw that from the inside). But whether he is right this time, we'll have to wait and see.
    Last edited by OldMusicGuy; 03-12-2017 at 11:37 AM.
    • atush
    • By atush 3rd Dec 17, 12:23 PM
    • 16,392 Posts
    • 10,145 Thanks
    atush
    Wow I'm shocked.....it shouldn't need some overpaid fund manager to tell anyone that we are in a bubble. This is obviously a nice little advertisement for Woodford in an effort to rationalize his recent poor performance and to convince some more punters to give him their money. I won't be buying anything he's selling.
    Originally posted by bostonerimus
    Didnt read the article, but have made money with Woodford over the years.
    • BLB53
    • By BLB53 3rd Dec 17, 12:32 PM
    • 1,180 Posts
    • 970 Thanks
    BLB53
    Not many fund managers outperform the market over time...Woodford did it longer than most but now he has run out of luck. Another reason for investors to go for low cost index funds.
    If you choose index funds you can never outperform the market.
    If you choose managed funds there's a high probability you will underperform index funds.
    • chrisgg
    • By chrisgg 3rd Dec 17, 6:55 PM
    • 25 Posts
    • 15 Thanks
    chrisgg
    Anyone who thinks Woodford only beat the market due to luck is seriously deluded. His track record over the past 30 years is exceptional. It's not like he's had just one or two bad years - I'm sure many here will remember him getting slated for buying boring tobacco stocks when everyone was buying tech...
    • bostonerimus
    • By bostonerimus 3rd Dec 17, 7:46 PM
    • 1,242 Posts
    • 693 Thanks
    bostonerimus
    Anyone who thinks Woodford only beat the market due to luck is seriously deluded. His track record over the past 30 years is exceptional. It's not like he's had just one or two bad years - I'm sure many here will remember him getting slated for buying boring tobacco stocks when everyone was buying tech...
    Originally posted by chrisgg
    Woodford could well be the "Joan Ginther" of fund managers.
    Misanthrope in search of similar for mutual loathing
    • Prism
    • By Prism 3rd Dec 17, 8:14 PM
    • 53 Posts
    • 29 Thanks
    Prism
    Anyone who thinks Woodford only beat the market due to luck is seriously deluded. His track record over the past 30 years is exceptional. It's not like he's had just one or two bad years - I'm sure many here will remember him getting slated for buying boring tobacco stocks when everyone was buying tech...
    Originally posted by chrisgg
    I'm not sure I would say exceptional. He has an annualised gain of 8.1% over the last 18 years which is ok but not great. His performance over the last 10 years seems poor to me. For his ability to predict the dot com crash it seems he didnt do very well during the financial crisis.
    • Superscrooge
    • By Superscrooge 3rd Dec 17, 9:43 PM
    • 916 Posts
    • 633 Thanks
    Superscrooge
    Woodford could well be the "Joan Ginther" of fund managers.
    Originally posted by bostonerimus
    I bet I'm not the only one who had to google 'Joan Ginther!'
    • talexuser
    • By talexuser 3rd Dec 17, 10:25 PM
    • 2,305 Posts
    • 1,792 Thanks
    talexuser
    it seems he didnt do very well during the financial crisis.
    Originally posted by Prism
    The allshare lost around 27% near the end of 08, whereas his funds only dropped around 14% during the same period, better than most funds in the sector.
    • Prism
    • By Prism 4th Dec 17, 12:13 AM
    • 53 Posts
    • 29 Thanks
    Prism
    The allshare lost around 27% near the end of 08, whereas his funds only dropped around 14% during the same period, better than most funds in the sector.
    Originally posted by talexuser
    Its his ability to recover after that that seems disappointing. When in 2009 everthing was on the way back up fairly dramatically his funds were only slightly. So you could say a Woodford fund is one to hold when things are going bad but not during a recovery or bull market.
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