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  • FIRST POST
    • catoutthebag
    • By catoutthebag 29th Nov 17, 1:54 PM
    • 2,177Posts
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    catoutthebag
    Vanguard life strategy - return
    • #1
    • 29th Nov 17, 1:54 PM
    Vanguard life strategy - return 29th Nov 17 at 1:54 PM
    Hi I opened my vls 60 via Charles Stanley direct 2 and a half years ago with 1000 pounds. It's up about 25% since with dividends reinvested.

    Would you this be considered a good return, so far?
Page 2
    • bostonerimus
    • By bostonerimus 30th Nov 17, 8:57 PM
    • 1,212 Posts
    • 668 Thanks
    bostonerimus
    thats what im doing. had a great run up and made quite a bit. best to lock in those profits and wait for a better opportunity.
    Originally posted by economic
    what do you mean by "better opportunity"? Rebalancing back to your target asset allocation if it deviates by some set amount maintains the risk profile of your portfolio. I think that's a useful tool, but whether it is "best" depends on the criteria you set. Do you have a price when you will get back in, or are you going to buy into "better value stocks"? If you had simply been 100% in S&P500 for the last 30 years and done absolutely nothing you would have seen a 10.3% annual average gain. I doubt market timing would have given better results for most people.
    Last edited by bostonerimus; 30-11-2017 at 9:00 PM.
    Misanthrope in search of similar for mutual loathing
    • economic
    • By economic 30th Nov 17, 8:59 PM
    • 2,107 Posts
    • 1,155 Thanks
    economic
    what do you mean by "best"? Rebalancing back to your target asset allocation if it deviates by some set amount maintains the risk profile of your portfolio. I think that's a useful tool, but whether it is "best" depends on the criteria you set. If you had simply been 100% in S&P500 for the last 30 years and done absolutely nothing you would have seen a 10.3% annual average gain. I doubt market timing would have given better results for most people.
    Originally posted by bostonerimus
    30 years ago i was 4.

    you make your own luck with these things, gotto speculate to accumulate!
    • bostonerimus
    • By bostonerimus 30th Nov 17, 9:05 PM
    • 1,212 Posts
    • 668 Thanks
    bostonerimus
    30 years ago i was 4.

    you make your own luck with these things, gotto speculate to accumulate!
    Originally posted by economic
    It's true that past markets are not necessarily good predictors. Can you tell me the criteria you are using to control your selling and buying.....or its this luck mostly manufactured with the gut? In the accumulation phase my criteria was to keep my 60/40 equity to bond ratio stable within a +/-5% boundaries. This netted just over 8% average annual return since 1987.
    Misanthrope in search of similar for mutual loathing
    • economic
    • By economic 1st Dec 17, 4:36 PM
    • 2,107 Posts
    • 1,155 Thanks
    economic
    It's true that past markets are not necessarily good predictors. Can you tell me the criteria you are using to control your selling and buying.....or its this luck mostly manufactured with the gut? In the accumulation phase my criteria was to keep my 60/40 equity to bond ratio stable within a +/-5% boundaries. This netted just over 8% average annual return since 1987.
    Originally posted by bostonerimus
    my gut instinct pretty much. i dont do much trading at all. as i said i have held my funds for 2 years now. first time i have sold them. lets see if i am right!
    • bostonerimus
    • By bostonerimus 1st Dec 17, 4:44 PM
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    bostonerimus
    my gut instinct pretty much. i dont do much trading at all. as i said i have held my funds for 2 years now. first time i have sold them. lets see if i am right!
    Originally posted by economic
    Do you have a plan for the money? Profits are nice, but it's what you do with them, and also what you do with the loses over the years that is important.
    Misanthrope in search of similar for mutual loathing
    • economic
    • By economic 1st Dec 17, 5:32 PM
    • 2,107 Posts
    • 1,155 Thanks
    economic
    Do you have a plan for the money? Profits are nice, but it's what you do with them, and also what you do with the loses over the years that is important.
    Originally posted by bostonerimus
    profits are reinvested into the same or other opportunities.

    you cant do anything about losses apart from learn from them.
    • TBC15
    • By TBC15 1st Dec 17, 5:51 PM
    • 263 Posts
    • 87 Thanks
    TBC15
    ive been buying lifestrategy 100% version since about 2 years ago and im up 30-35%. i have recently sold to lock in the profits. will buy back in at hopefully lower levels.

    i have other various funds and single stocks which i have kept. the main reason i sold vanguard fund is that i see a gbp rally extend quite a bit which would hurt the fund quite a bit.
    Originally posted by economic
    Time the market, the professionals canít do it.

    And you are?
    • bostonerimus
    • By bostonerimus 1st Dec 17, 7:24 PM
    • 1,212 Posts
    • 668 Thanks
    bostonerimus
    profits are reinvested into the same or other opportunities.
    Originally posted by economic
    But what are the criteria? Are you waiting for the price to fall and f if so by how much and over what time period, looking at momentum or inflection points? Being out of the market at the wrong times is a sure fire way to underperform
    Last edited by bostonerimus; 01-12-2017 at 7:27 PM.
    Misanthrope in search of similar for mutual loathing
    • economic
    • By economic 1st Dec 17, 7:51 PM
    • 2,107 Posts
    • 1,155 Thanks
    economic
    Time the market, the professionals canít do it.

    And you are?
    Originally posted by TBC15
    thats why i dont do it usually. i have only done it once which is now after 2 years being invested.
    • bostonerimus
    • By bostonerimus 1st Dec 17, 9:30 PM
    • 1,212 Posts
    • 668 Thanks
    bostonerimus
    thats why i dont do it usually. i have only done it once which is now after 2 years being invested.
    Originally posted by economic
    Once in 2 years sounds quite often. What tells you the market has peaked? and that it's the time to get out? Are you still ploughing money into pensions and ISA etc? I don't see any reason to sell equities beyond rebalancing because I don't have a crystal ball.
    Misanthrope in search of similar for mutual loathing
    • economic
    • By economic 2nd Dec 17, 8:59 AM
    • 2,107 Posts
    • 1,155 Thanks
    economic
    Once in 2 years sounds quite often. What tells you the market has peaked? and that it's the time to get out? Are you still ploughing money into pensions and ISA etc? I don't see any reason to sell equities beyond rebalancing because I don't have a crystal ball.
    Originally posted by bostonerimus
    all nonsense. you have no idea if the markets will have returned above inflation by the time you need access to it.

    there is always a time to buy and time to sell any market. remember that.

    that said i have bought back into the funds yesterday morning as i expected the tax bill to pass. it has passed so i am expecting markets to surge more from here.

    the reason why sold inthe first place was due to a bit of risk management. very important. just buying and holding blindly is a fools game.
    • IanSt
    • By IanSt 2nd Dec 17, 11:05 AM
    • 149 Posts
    • 104 Thanks
    IanSt
    all nonsense. you have no idea if the markets will have returned above inflation by the time you need access to it.
    Originally posted by economic
    Historically holding onto a fund has proven to be statistically better than to attempt to time your selling/repurchasing.

    there is always a time to buy and time to sell any market. remember that
    Originally posted by economic
    Indeed there is - but unfortunately that is usually only known in hindsight.
    • economic
    • By economic 2nd Dec 17, 11:25 AM
    • 2,107 Posts
    • 1,155 Thanks
    economic
    Historically holding onto a fund has proven to be statistically better than to attempt to time your selling/repurchasing.



    Indeed there is - but unfortunately that is usually only known in hindsight.
    Originally posted by IanSt
    past history is no indication of future returns.

    i will take my chances with risk management. imo thats the best way. buy and hold is a lot riskier. take a look at japan.
    • Prism
    • By Prism 2nd Dec 17, 12:17 PM
    • 53 Posts
    • 29 Thanks
    Prism
    i will take my chances with risk management. imo thats the best way. buy and hold is a lot riskier. take a look at japan.
    Originally posted by economic
    Thing is, its not really risk management when nobody has any clue what the risks are or the likelihood of those risks occuring. For every expert saying there is a crash around the corner there is another saying this is just the beginning of a recovery.

    Take the US tax cuts. Will this cause the stock market to go higher or lower? Is the plan better or worse than peoples expectations? Is the rise in the stock market over the last two months to do with these expectations? How does anyone deal without knowing any of these facts? Basically they guess.

    I'm not saying its not possible to be good at this as some fund managers have shown. It takes good research to get that kind of edge though, and a fair bit of luck. I certainly wouldnt presume I am remotely skilled at it and therefore don't bother.
    • bostonerimus
    • By bostonerimus 2nd Dec 17, 12:41 PM
    • 1,212 Posts
    • 668 Thanks
    bostonerimus
    past history is no indication of future returns.

    i will take my chances with risk management. imo thats the best way. buy and hold is a lot riskier. take a look at japan.
    Originally posted by economic
    Risk management is good. My approach to this was to rebalance a 60/40 portfolio within a +/-5% band. I think if you apply some quantitative metrics rather than "gut" to your risk management strategy you'll do ok. Being in the market for just 2 years means you have not invested through a serious down turn. During those gut reactions can get you into serious trouble.

    Simple buy and hold can be a good strategy. Doing that for the S&P500 from 1987 to now would have netted you 10% average annual returns....even with 2007 in there.
    Last edited by bostonerimus; 02-12-2017 at 12:44 PM.
    Misanthrope in search of similar for mutual loathing
    • bostonerimus
    • By bostonerimus 2nd Dec 17, 12:43 PM
    • 1,212 Posts
    • 668 Thanks
    bostonerimus

    that said i have bought back into the funds yesterday morning as i expected the tax bill to pass. it has passed so i am expecting markets to surge more from here.
    Originally posted by economic
    So did you buy in at a higher or lower price?
    Misanthrope in search of similar for mutual loathing
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