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  • FIRST POST
    • catoutthebag
    • By catoutthebag 29th Nov 17, 1:54 PM
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    catoutthebag
    Vanguard life strategy - return
    • #1
    • 29th Nov 17, 1:54 PM
    Vanguard life strategy - return 29th Nov 17 at 1:54 PM
    Hi I opened my vls 60 via Charles Stanley direct 2 and a half years ago with 1000 pounds. It's up about 25% since with dividends reinvested.

    Would you this be considered a good return, so far?
Page 1
    • dunstonh
    • By dunstonh 29th Nov 17, 2:01 PM
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    dunstonh
    • #2
    • 29th Nov 17, 2:01 PM
    • #2
    • 29th Nov 17, 2:01 PM
    Would you this be considered a good return, so far?
    Relative to what?

    Its not as good as some things. Its better than others. Its not as good as HSBC's equivalent which is the closest match possible in terms of asset mix and in that same period our closest model portfolio in terms of risk returned 36.3% (vs 24.65 for VLS and 26.89 for HSBC).

    2.5 years is insufficient. you need to look over an economic cycle really and that is closer to 10 years.
    I am an Independent Financial Adviser (IFA). Comments are for discussion purposes only. They are not financial advice. Different people have different needs and what is right for one person may not be for another. If you feel an area discussed may be relevant to you, then please seek advice from an Independent Financial Adviser local to you.
    • catoutthebag
    • By catoutthebag 29th Nov 17, 2:04 PM
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    catoutthebag
    • #3
    • 29th Nov 17, 2:04 PM
    • #3
    • 29th Nov 17, 2:04 PM
    Relative to what?

    Its not as good as some things. Its better than others. Its not as good as HSBC's equivalent which is the closest match possible in terms of asset mix and in that same period our closest model portfolio in terms of risk returned 36.3% (vs 24.65 for VLS and 26.89 for HSBC).

    2.5 years is insufficient. you need to look over an economic cycle really and that is closer to 10 years.
    Originally posted by dunstonh
    Relative to similar investment funds I could have put it in...to me it seemed very good, but I'm not aware of how well it could have done elsewhere.

    I understand I need longer (this will be 20 years maybe for me, subject to change), but would you recommend moving it the HSBC?

    I chose vls as it was most widely recommended for beginners to lock away and not worry about and with a good mix, when I searched here
    • catoutthebag
    • By catoutthebag 29th Nov 17, 2:50 PM
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    catoutthebag
    • #4
    • 29th Nov 17, 2:50 PM
    • #4
    • 29th Nov 17, 2:50 PM
    I was also suprised as I kept hearing 10-15% average annual growth for stockS and shares trackers
    • dunstonh
    • By dunstonh 29th Nov 17, 3:00 PM
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    dunstonh
    • #5
    • 29th Nov 17, 3:00 PM
    • #5
    • 29th Nov 17, 3:00 PM
    I was also suprised as I kept hearing 10-15% average annual growth for stockS and shares trackers
    Originally posted by catoutthebag
    That fund will likely end up closer to 5.5% to 7.5% p.a. long term. (as much as you can predict these things, that is the expectation based on current inflation). You have to include the negative periods as well and not just a period that had an unusual growth spurt due to a sudden devaluation in Sterling.
    I am an Independent Financial Adviser (IFA). Comments are for discussion purposes only. They are not financial advice. Different people have different needs and what is right for one person may not be for another. If you feel an area discussed may be relevant to you, then please seek advice from an Independent Financial Adviser local to you.
    • Bravepants
    • By Bravepants 29th Nov 17, 4:42 PM
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    Bravepants
    • #6
    • 29th Nov 17, 4:42 PM
    • #6
    • 29th Nov 17, 4:42 PM
    I always assume 5.5% growth of my portfolio (70% equity tracker funds, 30% bond funds a mix of VLS 60 and Fidelity Global), I would rather be pessimistic with my plans for retirement.
    • catoutthebag
    • By catoutthebag 29th Nov 17, 7:18 PM
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    catoutthebag
    • #7
    • 29th Nov 17, 7:18 PM
    • #7
    • 29th Nov 17, 7:18 PM
    That fund will likely end up closer to 5.5% to 7.5% p.a. long term. (as much as you can predict these things, that is the expectation based on current inflation). You have to include the negative periods as well and not just a period that had an unusual growth spurt due to a sudden devaluation in Sterling.
    Originally posted by dunstonh
    What funds do you think will do better? And I guess at such low returns am I best maxing out more of the highest savings, etc, peer to peer etc then?
    • bigadaj
    • By bigadaj 29th Nov 17, 7:49 PM
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    bigadaj
    • #8
    • 29th Nov 17, 7:49 PM
    • #8
    • 29th Nov 17, 7:49 PM
    I was also suprised as I kept hearing 10-15% average annual growth for stockS and shares trackers
    Originally posted by catoutthebag
    You might get that if inflation hits 8-10%.
    • IanSt
    • By IanSt 30th Nov 17, 10:14 AM
    • 155 Posts
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    IanSt
    • #9
    • 30th Nov 17, 10:14 AM
    • #9
    • 30th Nov 17, 10:14 AM
    I was also suprised as I kept hearing 10-15% average annual growth for stockS and shares trackers
    Originally posted by catoutthebag
    I suspect you have either been listening to the wrong people or are misremembering what they said.

    An average fund may well make 10-15% over a short period of time (especially if there has been a £ depreciation at the same time), but do not expect to see such returns after inflation over the longer term.
    • economic
    • By economic 30th Nov 17, 10:21 AM
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    economic
    ive been buying lifestrategy 100% version since about 2 years ago and im up 30-35%. i have recently sold to lock in the profits. will buy back in at hopefully lower levels.

    i have other various funds and single stocks which i have kept. the main reason i sold vanguard fund is that i see a gbp rally extend quite a bit which would hurt the fund quite a bit.
    Last edited by economic; 30-11-2017 at 10:51 AM.
    • Prism
    • By Prism 30th Nov 17, 12:30 PM
    • 53 Posts
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    Prism
    I suspect you have either been listening to the wrong people or are misremembering what they said.

    An average fund may well make 10-15% over a short period of time (especially if there has been a £ depreciation at the same time), but do not expect to see such returns after inflation over the longer term.
    Originally posted by IanSt
    Like you say that would be an average fund, but we don't need to pick an average fund if we can find an excellent fund. An anual growth of 10-15% is actually fairly common over the last 10 years. Over the last 5 years its more like 15%-20%. Assuming 100% equities and a decent fund manager.
    • JohnRo
    • By JohnRo 30th Nov 17, 12:54 PM
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    JohnRo
    An average fund is a fiction, what you might find is that your excellent fund pick also has a few years or the odd one or two of being not so excellent. Woodford being an obvious example.

    Unless you're prepared to start trying to time the market and good luck with that, it's probably wiser to assume, since the GFC and central bank counterfeiting went ballistic that the last few years have been extraordinary for equity markets.
    'We don't need to be smarter than the rest; we need to be more disciplined than the rest.' - WB
    • bostonerimus
    • By bostonerimus 30th Nov 17, 1:24 PM
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    bostonerimus
    What funds do you think will do better? And I guess at such low returns am I best maxing out more of the highest savings, etc, peer to peer etc then?
    Originally posted by catoutthebag
    Chasing return is a dangerous thing and will lead to poor decisions. Settle on a risk and return for your portfolio and stick to a strategy. That will help you through the periods when you lose 25% in a year.

    Shopping for this year's "best" fund isn't a winning strategy. People with VLS products have a pre-made index tracker portfolio. If you want to beat those indexes then VLS is not the right thing to own.
    Misanthrope in search of similar for mutual loathing
    • TBC15
    • By TBC15 30th Nov 17, 4:43 PM
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    TBC15
    You have done very well as apposed to putting your cash on deposit.

    You have achieved below par apparently Vs similar products. But they are not my thing.

    You have performed abysmally Vs a good well picked spread of active funds.

    It all boils down to how much interest you take in investing, risk profile etc etc. and your expectations.
    • catoutthebag
    • By catoutthebag 30th Nov 17, 6:24 PM
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    catoutthebag
    Is there any negative in doing what the other guy said...sell up when comfortably up and reivlnvest when down? That seems more active management rather than passive...if the returns are these low I'm better off with cash Isa, regular saver, easy access accounts, peer to peer etc...I may sell up and 'lock in profit'

    I make quite a bit selling collectable...I bought 35 prints at about 300 total and sold 11 so far for 1200+
    Last edited by catoutthebag; 30-11-2017 at 6:35 PM.
    • dunstonh
    • By dunstonh 30th Nov 17, 7:02 PM
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    dunstonh
    Is there any negative in doing what the other guy said...sell up when comfortably up and reivlnvest when down?
    It usually results in lower returns in the long run compared to remaining invested with rebalancing.

    You never know when the lows are going to be or when the highs are. Are you going to pull out and watch the market go up another 15% before it suffers a 10% correction and then reinvest when half that correction has already recovered?

    if the returns are these low I'm better off with cash Isa, regular saver, easy access accounts, peer to peer etc...I may sell up and 'lock in profit'
    Where can you find savings accounts paying 5-7% pa.?
    I am an Independent Financial Adviser (IFA). Comments are for discussion purposes only. They are not financial advice. Different people have different needs and what is right for one person may not be for another. If you feel an area discussed may be relevant to you, then please seek advice from an Independent Financial Adviser local to you.
    • bostonerimus
    • By bostonerimus 30th Nov 17, 7:15 PM
    • 1,243 Posts
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    bostonerimus
    Is there any negative in doing what the other guy said...sell up when comfortably up and reivlnvest when down? That seems more active management rather than passive...if the returns are these low I'm better off with cash Isa, regular saver, easy access accounts, peer to peer etc...I may sell up and 'lock in profit'

    I make quite a bit selling collectable...I bought 35 prints at about 300 total and sold 11 so far for 1200+
    Originally posted by catoutthebag
    What if they sell and the funds keep going up......some gains will have been lost. Such market timing and stock/fund picking will work sometimes and other times it will fail. So if you believe you can pick the "best" funds and time the market consistently then you'd be a fool not to use active funds or actively trade. Of course pride comes before a fall.
    Misanthrope in search of similar for mutual loathing
    • catoutthebag
    • By catoutthebag 30th Nov 17, 8:42 PM
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    catoutthebag
    It usually results in lower returns in the long run compared to remaining invested with rebalancing.

    You never know when the lows are going to be or when the highs are. Are you going to pull out and watch the market go up another 15% before it suffers a 10% correction and then reinvest when half that correction has already recovered?



    Where can you find savings accounts paying 5-7% pa.?
    Originally posted by dunstonh
    You picked one example from my list. Peer to peer can pay that. And my crypotocurrency is up 30-50%. Maybe I'll take the 1250 out (a mere 10pounds a month) and see how Bitcoin do in a month, served me ok so far than all these passive, risk averse rubbish
    • economic
    • By economic 30th Nov 17, 8:46 PM
    • 2,205 Posts
    • 1,198 Thanks
    economic
    Is there any negative in doing what the other guy said...sell up when comfortably up and reivlnvest when down? That seems more active management rather than passive...if the returns are these low I'm better off with cash Isa, regular saver, easy access accounts, peer to peer etc...I may sell up and 'lock in profit'

    I make quite a bit selling collectable...I bought 35 prints at about 300 total and sold 11 so far for 1200+
    Originally posted by catoutthebag
    thats what im doing. had a great run up and made quite a bit. best to lock in those profits and wait for a better opportunity.
    • fun4everyone
    • By fun4everyone 30th Nov 17, 8:56 PM
    • 850 Posts
    • 1,387 Thanks
    fun4everyone
    Hi I opened my vls 60 via Charles Stanley direct 2 and a half years ago with 1000 pounds. It's up about 25% since with dividends reinvested.

    Would you this be considered a good return, so far?
    Originally posted by catoutthebag
    You picked one example from my list. Peer to peer can pay that. And my crypotocurrency is up 30-50%. Maybe I'll take the 1250 out (a mere 10pounds a month) and see how Bitcoin do in a month, served me ok so far than all these passive, risk averse rubbish
    Originally posted by catoutthebag
    Hi,

    My view would be that on £1000 you've done just fine. I would not worry about slight differences in return over such a short time period. For that amount of money imo you should just pick one global passive fund and be done with it. No point in chasing outperformance from a portfolio of specific active funds.

    Also congratulations on the cryptocurrency returns. If you are willing to take on the risk/reward/rollercoaster of bitcoin then I think you should consider a 100% equities allocation for your £1250 in VLS60. Just my thoughts.
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