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  • FIRST POST
    • Skag
    • By Skag 7th Oct 17, 2:22 PM
    • 201Posts
    • 16Thanks
    Skag
    Housing market move given Brexit and interest rise
    • #1
    • 7th Oct 17, 2:22 PM
    Housing market move given Brexit and interest rise 7th Oct 17 at 2:22 PM
    I was wondering what you think will be the housing market move in the next 6-12 months given the uncertainty with Brexit and the coming interest rates rise(s).
    I would assume that since cost of borrowing will rise, and also BTL is becoming less affordable and efficient, will the (high geared) BTL owners start selling and prices will start to fall?
    Consequently will it be a good market for those who are looking to buy but couldn't afford so far? Though this will cost a bit more given the interest rates hike.

    Do you agree with the above?
    I live in London and have observed the last weeks that new properties are coming in the market for lower prices that used to say half a year or one year ago.
    Last edited by Skag; 07-10-2017 at 2:26 PM.
Page 2
    • ukcarper
    • By ukcarper 9th Oct 17, 8:47 AM
    • 11,953 Posts
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    ukcarper
    You definitely won't get a ''better debate'' there... it's populated by a small but very vociferous clique of vested interests, property investors, recent buyers etc... who all hold the general opinion that never ending, policy driven, rampant house price inflation is great and has no drawbacks what so ever.
    Originally posted by Tiners
    No it's not many just don't subscribe The HPC rhetoric.
    • ukcarper
    • By ukcarper 9th Oct 17, 8:51 AM
    • 11,953 Posts
    • 12,802 Thanks
    ukcarper
    There are about six or seven regular posters.......all singing from the same hymn sheet
    Originally posted by Crashy Time
    I admit there are a couple of posters that are the opposite of you, but the majority realise that the housing market is very complicated and claiming you can accurately predict it is nonsense.

    Anyway the point is this is a help board and the other is a discussion board and that is where this thread should be, there is nothing stopping you and others posting on there.
    Last edited by ukcarper; 09-10-2017 at 8:53 AM.
    • Crashy Time
    • By Crashy Time 10th Oct 17, 1:20 PM
    • 5,288 Posts
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    Crashy Time
    I admit there are a couple of posters that are the opposite of you, but the majority realise that the housing market is very complicated and claiming you can accurately predict it is nonsense.

    Anyway the point is this is a help board and the other is a discussion board and that is where this thread should be, there is nothing stopping you and others posting on there.
    Originally posted by ukcarper

    It isn`t complicated, it runs on sentiment and availability of credit, plus some supply and demand thrown in, but demand at a certain price can only happen if the credit/interest rates support it. Most sensible people can now see that there was a massive bubble that is now bursting IMO.
    • Tiners
    • By Tiners 10th Oct 17, 3:21 PM
    • 223 Posts
    • 222 Thanks
    Tiners
    No it's not many just don't subscribe The HPC rhetoric.
    Originally posted by ukcarper

    That's my point, they (the small clique of vociferous posters) are the polar opposite of HPCers...
    they'll deny that there are any problems at all with current UK property market, that affordability simply isn't an issue and houses are just as affordable as they've ever been, that availability of credit plays no part in things, even that current interest rates are at ''about the historical average''
    • bob bank spanker
    • By bob bank spanker 10th Oct 17, 3:38 PM
    • 538 Posts
    • 1,038 Thanks
    bob bank spanker
    That's my point, they (the small clique of vociferous posters) are the polar opposite of HPCers...
    they'll deny that there are any problems at all with current UK property market, that affordability simply isn't an issue and houses are just as affordable as they've ever been, that availability of credit plays no part in things, even that current interest rates are at ''about the historical average''
    Originally posted by Tiners
    Has anyone actually said that?
    • Tiners
    • By Tiners 10th Oct 17, 4:37 PM
    • 223 Posts
    • 222 Thanks
    Tiners
    Has anyone actually said that?
    Originally posted by bob bank spanker

    Definitely yes.

    I don't have the time or the desire to trawl through that forum to try and find the specific thread/post but that claim was definitely made and it was, I'm certain, made by one of the regular ''much respected'' contributors.
    • Crashy Time
    • By Crashy Time 10th Oct 17, 4:48 PM
    • 5,288 Posts
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    Crashy Time
    I admit there are a couple of posters that are the opposite of you, but the majority realise that the housing market is very complicated and claiming you can accurately predict it is nonsense.

    Anyway the point is this is a help board and the other is a discussion board and that is where this thread should be, there is nothing stopping you and others posting on there.
    Originally posted by ukcarper

    I am not claiming to be able to accurately predict the housing market, just that there is a massive bubble and that when it pops there will be a mess. Most people are awake to this now, the audience were even saying on QT that HTB isn`t the answer! The word just needs to filter through to the debate forum and then more or less the whole country will be clued in...
    • Crashy Time
    • By Crashy Time 10th Oct 17, 5:18 PM
    • 5,288 Posts
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    Crashy Time
    Brexit effect already taking effect?


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/oct/09/uk-rents-fall-amid-property-glut-in-south-east-england
    • _CC_
    • By _CC_ 10th Oct 17, 5:45 PM
    • 272 Posts
    • 260 Thanks
    _CC_
    Definitely yes.

    I don't have the time or the desire to trawl through that forum to try and find the specific thread/post but that claim was definitely made and it was, I'm certain, made by one of the regular ''much respected'' contributors.
    Originally posted by Tiners
    That's convenient
    • ukcarper
    • By ukcarper 10th Oct 17, 5:50 PM
    • 11,953 Posts
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    ukcarper
    It isn`t complicated, it runs on sentiment and availability of credit, plus some supply and demand thrown in, but demand at a certain price can only happen if the credit/interest rates support it. Most sensible people can now see that there was a massive bubble that is now bursting IMO.
    Originally posted by Crashy Time
    If it's that simply why have you others been predicting a crash that hasn't happened in fact prices have increased considerably.
    • ukcarper
    • By ukcarper 10th Oct 17, 5:53 PM
    • 11,953 Posts
    • 12,802 Thanks
    ukcarper
    That's my point, they (the small clique of vociferous posters) are the polar opposite of HPCers...
    they'll deny that there are any problems at all with current UK property market, that affordability simply isn't an issue and houses are just as affordable as they've ever been, that availability of credit plays no part in things, even that current interest rates are at ''about the historical average''
    Originally posted by Tiners
    But that's the point it's a discussion board and it has people with all types of views, this is a help board and is not the place for wild speculation.
    • ukcarper
    • By ukcarper 10th Oct 17, 5:55 PM
    • 11,953 Posts
    • 12,802 Thanks
    ukcarper
    I am not claiming to be able to accurately predict the housing market, just that there is a massive bubble and that when it pops there will be a mess. Most people are awake to this now, the audience were even saying on QT that HTB isn`t the answer! The word just needs to filter through to the debate forum and then more or less the whole country will be clued in...
    Originally posted by Crashy Time
    That's just your opinion, prices are high in parts of the country but that doesn't mean it's a massive bubble.

    It doesn't really matter what a few posters on discussion board think so long as they don't come here and say buy buy buy prices are going to boom.
    Last edited by ukcarper; 10-10-2017 at 5:58 PM.
    • brit1234
    • By brit1234 10th Oct 17, 9:43 PM
    • 5,172 Posts
    • 11,948 Thanks
    brit1234
    That's just your opinion, prices are high in parts of the country but that doesn't mean it's a massive bubble.

    It doesn't really matter what a few posters on discussion board think so long as they don't come here and say buy buy buy prices are going to boom.
    Originally posted by ukcarper
    Not in certain parts of the country like the North East where prices haven't to their 2007 peak. However in much of the country especially the South prices have doubled or more than the 2007 bubble. Flats in West London which were about £230k in 2007 went up to close to £500k earlier this year before they started falling again.

    The simple fact that post 2008 interest rates were slashed from 5% to 0.25%, the credit markets were flooded with billion upon billions of £s in quantative easing & funding for lending money making borrowing the cheapest ever. When interest only mortgages were banned for residential use the lenders got round this by increasing mortgage terms from 25 -35 years. The majority of new build flats were flogged off to foriegn investors as well as our most expensive properties sending price rise ripples out to all other properties in the outer areas. Then there was Help to Buy and loads of other things fueling the housing bubble.

    Only a independant economists and individuals call a housing bubble before it bursts. The rest call it once it bursts as trying not to rock the boat on the way up. However you have to recognise that many of the props that fuelled the high prices have been removed now.

    If you are right and there isn't a housing bubble then prices are sustainable at these levels and won't fall with the removal of these props.

    My belief is easy cheap credit leads to higher house prices, clamping down on it leads to falls.
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    • ukcarper
    • By ukcarper 10th Oct 17, 10:09 PM
    • 11,953 Posts
    • 12,802 Thanks
    ukcarper
    Not in certain parts of the country like the North East where prices haven't to their 2007 peak. However in much of the country especially the South prices have doubled or more than the 2007 bubble. Flats in West London which were about £230k in 2007 went up to close to £500k earlier this year before they started falling again.

    The simple fact that post 2008 interest rates were slashed from 5% to 0.25%, the credit markets were flooded with billion upon billions of £s in quantative easing & funding for lending money making borrowing the cheapest ever. When interest only mortgages were banned for residential use the lenders got round this by increasing mortgage terms from 25 -35 years. The majority of new build flats were flogged off to foriegn investors as well as our most expensive properties sending price rise ripples out to all other properties in the outer areas. Then there was Help to Buy and loads of other things fueling the housing bubble.

    Only a independant economists and individuals call a housing bubble before it bursts. The rest call it once it bursts as trying not to rock the boat on the way up. However you have to recognise that many of the props that fuelled the high prices have been removed now.

    If you are right and there isn't a housing bubble then prices are sustainable at these levels and won't fall with the removal of these props.

    My belief is easy cheap credit leads to higher house prices, clamping down on it leads to falls.
    Originally posted by brit1234
    If what you say is true why have prices increased in some areas and not others also it's harder to get a mortgage now than it has been in the past. If people had followed crashy's and your advice it would have cost them a lot of money. The truth is no one knows what will happen to prices and if buying you should be aware that prices could fall but if you are buying a home and are not intending to move in the near future you shouldn't let it put you off.
    • Tiners
    • By Tiners 11th Oct 17, 5:49 AM
    • 223 Posts
    • 222 Thanks
    Tiners
    People talk about whether prices have hit their 2007 ''peak'' or not as if that's some kind of benchmark of affordability... but the only reason prices hit that peak was due to a decade of irresponsible and fraudulent lending, sub-prime loans, self cert I.O. mortgages etc etc

    We've now had a further decade which has seen unprecedented government and Central Bank intervention to prop up and further inflate the property market, back to or above 2007 levels in most areas, whilst wages have barely increased in that time.
    • ukcarper
    • By ukcarper 11th Oct 17, 8:47 AM
    • 11,953 Posts
    • 12,802 Thanks
    ukcarper
    People talk about whether prices have hit their 2007 ''peak'' or not as if that's some kind of benchmark of affordability... but the only reason prices hit that peak was due to a decade of irresponsible and fraudulent lending, sub-prime loans, self cert I.O. mortgages etc etc

    We've now had a further decade which has seen unprecedented government and Central Bank intervention to prop up and further inflate the property market, back to or above 2007 levels in most areas, whilst wages have barely increased in that time.
    Originally posted by Tiners
    I agree prices are to high in some areas, but I don't agree that it is entirely down to government intervention to prop up housing market otherwise property would have boomed everywhere. Most of the measure taken were to protect economy not prop up housing market. What is need is more property in areas where it is needed the most or somehow to spread demand more evenly around the country.
    • AnotherJoe
    • By AnotherJoe 11th Oct 17, 10:13 AM
    • 7,673 Posts
    • 8,286 Thanks
    AnotherJoe
    Brexsh*t is going to sadly seriously damage the financial prospects of so many areas, including housing.

    We've already had the 1st direct trade deal: HUGE extra tariffs of British exports to USofA of Bombadier series C.

    I weep for my country.
    Originally posted by theartfullodger
    Self evidently that's nothing to do with Brexit. I weep for the logic used by some people.
    • caronoel
    • By caronoel 11th Oct 17, 1:33 PM
    • 774 Posts
    • 983 Thanks
    caronoel
    ... the South prices have doubled or more than the 2007 bubble. Flats in West London which were about £230k in 2007 went up to close to £500k earlier this year ...
    Originally posted by brit1234
    Such wisdom from the same poster who in early 2009 confidently predicted a crash of 50% by that Christmas.

    Oh how we laughed.

    • Tiners
    • By Tiners 11th Oct 17, 2:12 PM
    • 223 Posts
    • 222 Thanks
    Tiners
    Such wisdom from the same poster who in early 2009 confidently predicted a crash of 50% by that Christmas.

    Oh how we laughed.

    Originally posted by caronoel

    Yes, it's truly hilarious innit... that an entire generation and more have been priced out of possibly ever owning their own home, unless they're able and prepared to commit unprecedented proportions of their income for possibly they're entire working life to service a mortgage... and the real kicker is it's our government and central bank that have enabled it.
    • caronoel
    • By caronoel 11th Oct 17, 4:00 PM
    • 774 Posts
    • 983 Thanks
    caronoel
    Yes, it's truly hilarious innit... that an entire generation and more have been priced out of possibly ever owning their own home, unless they're able and prepared to commit unprecedented proportions of their income for possibly they're entire working life to service a mortgage... and the real kicker is it's our government and central bank that have enabled it.
    Originally posted by Tiners
    Brit boasted openly at the time that he was in a secure government job, earning a police sergeantís salary and sitting on what he then viewed as a healthy deposit.

    He has been coming on here ridiculing anyone who suggested buying a house to live or invest in was a good idea, while house prices have (by his own admission) more than doubled since his prediction of a 50% fall.

    Nasty litte HPC-ers like that deserve all the ridicule they get.

    He doesnít post on the Debate house prices board anymore, because he gets torn to shreds there.
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