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  • FIRST POST
    • Skag
    • By Skag 7th Oct 17, 2:22 PM
    • 201Posts
    • 16Thanks
    Skag
    Housing market move given Brexit and interest rise
    • #1
    • 7th Oct 17, 2:22 PM
    Housing market move given Brexit and interest rise 7th Oct 17 at 2:22 PM
    I was wondering what you think will be the housing market move in the next 6-12 months given the uncertainty with Brexit and the coming interest rates rise(s).
    I would assume that since cost of borrowing will rise, and also BTL is becoming less affordable and efficient, will the (high geared) BTL owners start selling and prices will start to fall?
    Consequently will it be a good market for those who are looking to buy but couldn't afford so far? Though this will cost a bit more given the interest rates hike.

    Do you agree with the above?
    I live in London and have observed the last weeks that new properties are coming in the market for lower prices that used to say half a year or one year ago.
    Last edited by Skag; 07-10-2017 at 2:26 PM.
Page 1
    • theartfullodger
    • By theartfullodger 7th Oct 17, 2:33 PM
    • 9,110 Posts
    • 12,078 Thanks
    theartfullodger
    • #2
    • 7th Oct 17, 2:33 PM
    • #2
    • 7th Oct 17, 2:33 PM
    Brexsh*t is going to sadly seriously damage the financial prospects of so many areas, including housing.

    We've already had the 1st direct trade deal: HUGE extra tariffs of British exports to USofA of Bombadier series C.

    I weep for my country.
    • Surrey_EA
    • By Surrey_EA 7th Oct 17, 2:45 PM
    • 1,302 Posts
    • 1,566 Thanks
    Surrey_EA
    • #3
    • 7th Oct 17, 2:45 PM
    • #3
    • 7th Oct 17, 2:45 PM
    Who really knows? A rate rise has been expected for a while now, and not yet materialised, although I agree it is becoming to seem more likely. Even if rates do rise I think it will be by a small amount, perhaps only by 0.25% or 0.5% over the next 18 months.

    Brexit is a totally unknown quantity, and it's really difficult to predict what impact it's going to have.

    The housing market rarely responds to logic and reason, too much human emotion involved.

    You may be better posting on "The Debate House Prices & the Economy Board" where similar threads are already running:

    http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/forumdisplay.php?f=149
    • jimbog
    • By jimbog 7th Oct 17, 3:24 PM
    • 619 Posts
    • 988 Thanks
    jimbog
    • #4
    • 7th Oct 17, 3:24 PM
    • #4
    • 7th Oct 17, 3:24 PM
    You will get a better debate in the debate forum:
    http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/forumdisplay.php?f=149
    The problem with quotations on the internet is that you can never verify their authenticity - Abraham Lincoln
    • tberry6686
    • By tberry6686 7th Oct 17, 5:01 PM
    • 971 Posts
    • 927 Thanks
    tberry6686
    • #5
    • 7th Oct 17, 5:01 PM
    • #5
    • 7th Oct 17, 5:01 PM
    Brexsh*t is going to sadly seriously damage the financial prospects of so many areas, including housing.

    We've already had the 1st direct trade deal: HUGE extra tariffs of British exports to USofA of Bombadier series C.

    I weep for my country.
    Originally posted by theartfullodger
    Bombadier had nothing to do with brexit. Give up the remoaning. Brexit will happen and no one knows what the outcome will be at this point.
    • juniordoc
    • By juniordoc 8th Oct 17, 10:14 AM
    • 235 Posts
    • 202 Thanks
    juniordoc
    • #6
    • 8th Oct 17, 10:14 AM
    • #6
    • 8th Oct 17, 10:14 AM
    Inflation, stagnant wages and rate rises will limit people's ability to buy. However this government is not building nearly enough houses to cope with our growing/ageing population so house prices will be propped up by that as long as some people can afford to buy.
    Sadly I think the divide will just get bigger and bigger between those who can afford to buy (with the help of their parents) and those who cannot.
    • jimbo747
    • By jimbo747 8th Oct 17, 10:46 AM
    • 277 Posts
    • 707 Thanks
    jimbo747
    • #7
    • 8th Oct 17, 10:46 AM
    • #7
    • 8th Oct 17, 10:46 AM
    We can keep building houses until there isn't a single bit of green belt left, and at some point in the future it still won't be enough. There are plenty of houses in the UK per sq mile, probably too many.

    Problem is population size. Need to reduce population by about 10-20m, ideally by encouraging those in poverty not to have children, and preventing immigration where they're likely to take more out of the system than pay in. Brexit will help solve one of those probelms. Wages will go up, house prices go down, more disposable income therefore less reliance on credit, so less depression, less chance of a crash affecting us and everyone apart from wealthy business owners like me or those investing in property will be happier.
    • LdnFtB
    • By LdnFtB 8th Oct 17, 11:29 AM
    • 93 Posts
    • 94 Thanks
    LdnFtB
    • #8
    • 8th Oct 17, 11:29 AM
    • #8
    • 8th Oct 17, 11:29 AM
    UK actually has quite low density. About 97% of the country isn't built on. Even London is about 64% green space. We could quite easily double or even triple the number of houses in this country and the UK would still be over 90% green and pleasant land.

    The restrictions on access to finance and removal of tax relief for landlords will have a far greater impact on house prices than Brexit. Landlords have been able to outbid FtB for a long time, until prices have exceeded what FtB can afford. Now that it's uneconomical for landlords to buy houses and flats in London, prices will go down to what FtB can afford.
    • bob bank spanker
    • By bob bank spanker 8th Oct 17, 12:17 PM
    • 538 Posts
    • 1,038 Thanks
    bob bank spanker
    • #9
    • 8th Oct 17, 12:17 PM
    • #9
    • 8th Oct 17, 12:17 PM
    Brexsh*t is going to sadly seriously damage the financial prospects of so many areas, including housing.

    We've already had the 1st direct trade deal: HUGE extra tariffs of British exports to USofA of Bombadier series C.

    I weep for my country.
    Originally posted by theartfullodger
    What an enormous pile of nonsense. Boeing piling pressure on Trump to stick tariffs on a Canadian company has literally nothing to do with Brexit.

    Is this what this country has been reduced to: grown men weeping about an economic process they know almost nothing about. I'm not sure who the real snowflakes are.
    • Crashy Time
    • By Crashy Time 8th Oct 17, 1:41 PM
    • 5,274 Posts
    • 2,217 Thanks
    Crashy Time
    UK actually has quite low density. About 97% of the country isn't built on. Even London is about 64% green space. We could quite easily double or even triple the number of houses in this country and the UK would still be over 90% green and pleasant land.

    The restrictions on access to finance and removal of tax relief for landlords will have a far greater impact on house prices than Brexit. Landlords have been able to outbid FtB for a long time, until prices have exceeded what FtB can afford. Now that it's uneconomical for landlords to buy houses and flats in London, prices will go down to what FtB can afford.
    Originally posted by LdnFtB

    Yep, this is the game changer, Tory leadership battle during Brexit and the eventual Corbyn government and bond market crisis will be the cherry on top.
    • Crashy Time
    • By Crashy Time 8th Oct 17, 1:43 PM
    • 5,274 Posts
    • 2,217 Thanks
    Crashy Time
    You will get a better debate in the debate forum:
    http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/forumdisplay.php?f=149
    Originally posted by jimbog

    You probably won`t actually
    • qwert yuiop
    • By qwert yuiop 8th Oct 17, 1:51 PM
    • 2,134 Posts
    • 1,247 Thanks
    qwert yuiop
    We can keep building houses until there isn't a single bit of green belt left, and at some point in the future it still won't be enough. There are plenty of houses in the UK per sq mile, probably too many.

    Problem is population size. Need to reduce population by about 10-20m, ideally by encouraging those in poverty not to have children, and preventing immigration where they're likely to take more out of the system than pay in. Brexit will help solve one of those probelms. Wages will go up, house prices go down, more disposable income therefore less reliance on credit, so less depression, less chance of a crash affecting us and everyone apart from wealthy business owners like me or those investing in property will be happier.
    Originally posted by jimbo747
    What an enormous pile of nonsense. Boeing piling pressure on Trump to stick tariffs on a Canadian company has literally nothing to do with Brexit.

    Is this what this country has been reduced to: grown men weeping about an economic process they know almost nothing about. I'm not sure who the real snowflakes are.
    Originally posted by bob bank spanker

    I believe the message is that we won't be able to expect any favours from the Americans. You're right, nothing to do with brexit, but some indication that life may not be easy post brexit.
    • Tiners
    • By Tiners 8th Oct 17, 3:49 PM
    • 223 Posts
    • 222 Thanks
    Tiners
    You will get a better debate in the debate forum:
    http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/forumdisplay.php?f=149
    Originally posted by jimbog
    You definitely won't get a ''better debate'' there... it's populated by a small but very vociferous clique of vested interests, property investors, recent buyers etc... who all hold the general opinion that never ending, policy driven, rampant house price inflation is great and has no drawbacks what so ever.
    • glasgowdan
    • By glasgowdan 8th Oct 17, 4:41 PM
    • 2,633 Posts
    • 2,941 Thanks
    glasgowdan
    You definitely won't get a ''better debate'' there... it's populated by a small but very vociferous clique of vested interests, property investors, recent buyers etc... who all hold the general opinion that never ending, policy driven, rampant house price inflation is great and has no drawbacks what so ever.
    Originally posted by Tiners
    You've accounted for a small portion of the posters in that forum... I guess you belong to the other, more vocal/less informed portion!
    • Thrugelmir
    • By Thrugelmir 8th Oct 17, 4:50 PM
    • 56,191 Posts
    • 49,569 Thanks
    Thrugelmir
    We've already had the 1st direct trade deal: HUGE extra tariffs of British exports to USofA of Bombadier series C.

    I weep for my country.
    Originally posted by theartfullodger
    Bombardier is a Canadian Company.

    PS. Boeing employs 19,000 people in the UK.
    “Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble”
    ― Warren Buffett
    • Thrugelmir
    • By Thrugelmir 8th Oct 17, 4:53 PM
    • 56,191 Posts
    • 49,569 Thanks
    Thrugelmir
    I live in London and have observed the last weeks that new properties are coming in the market for lower prices that used to say half a year or one year ago.
    Originally posted by Skag
    London is an international market. Speaking to some Canadians in Eire a few weeks ago. They now call Vancouver, Hongcouver. As money from Asia is now driving the locals out. While everyone concerns themselves with Europe. The middle class of Asia continues to grow in size. The world order is changing.
    “Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble”
    ― Warren Buffett
    • jimbog
    • By jimbog 8th Oct 17, 5:05 PM
    • 619 Posts
    • 988 Thanks
    jimbog
    You probably won`t actually
    Originally posted by Crashy Time
    Judging by the responses so far I think the OP would
    The problem with quotations on the internet is that you can never verify their authenticity - Abraham Lincoln
    • Crashy Time
    • By Crashy Time 8th Oct 17, 6:34 PM
    • 5,274 Posts
    • 2,217 Thanks
    Crashy Time
    London is an international market. Speaking to some Canadians in Eire a few weeks ago. They now call Vancouver, Hongcouver. As money from Asia is now driving the locals out. While everyone concerns themselves with Europe. The middle class of Asia continues to grow in size. The world order is changing.
    Originally posted by Thrugelmir

    http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/02/15/vancouver-average-house-price-january-2017_n_14775268.html
    • Crashy Time
    • By Crashy Time 8th Oct 17, 6:37 PM
    • 5,274 Posts
    • 2,217 Thanks
    Crashy Time
    You've accounted for a small portion of the posters in that forum... I guess you belong to the other, more vocal/less informed portion!
    Originally posted by glasgowdan

    There are about six or seven regular posters.......all singing from the same hymn sheet
    • 00ec25
    • By 00ec25 9th Oct 17, 8:32 AM
    • 5,555 Posts
    • 4,946 Thanks
    00ec25
    There are about six or seven regular posters.......all singing from the same hymn sheet
    Originally posted by Crashy Time
    did they drive you away or have you failed to convince them of your brand of nonsense?
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