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  • FIRST POST
    • aroominyork
    • By aroominyork 5th Oct 17, 1:49 PM
    • 300Posts
    • 72Thanks
    aroominyork
    India stock market
    • #1
    • 5th Oct 17, 1:49 PM
    India stock market 5th Oct 17 at 1:49 PM
    I would appreciate some views about the Indian market. When I started DIYing a few months ago I decided to be overweight in Europe and India, the latter due to a stable, business-friendly and anti-corruption government having been elected (and, I guess, because I have a soft spot for the country). So I invested 4.5% of my portfolio in Jupiter India and 4.1% in ANII.

    I now think I missed the last boat and have boarded too early for the next: the market rose strongly on the back of Modi’s election but it is now getting to terms with GST and remonetisation and I don’t see the market going up much (falls seem more possible) until these changes start to feed through into hard improvements in output and profitability. So I am today selling Jupiter India (SME) to invest in a broader EM fund, probably TEM, and for the moment am holding onto ANII (large cap). But since I see little upside but potential downside over the next couple of years I wonder if I should even hang onto ANII or take the small loss and wait until I think India might be ready for another spurt. Views would be welcome.
Page 1
    • Linton
    • By Linton 5th Oct 17, 1:59 PM
    • 8,636 Posts
    • 8,611 Thanks
    Linton
    • #2
    • 5th Oct 17, 1:59 PM
    • #2
    • 5th Oct 17, 1:59 PM
    There arent any boats to be missed or boarded. What matters is the long term. Choose a % allocation you are prepared to hold and stick to it. By keeping the % allocation constant you will automatically be buying when prices are unusually low and selling when unusually high with no need for prophetic powers.
    • A_T
    • By A_T 5th Oct 17, 3:07 PM
    • 241 Posts
    • 122 Thanks
    A_T
    • #3
    • 5th Oct 17, 3:07 PM
    • #3
    • 5th Oct 17, 3:07 PM
    When I started DIYing a few months ago I decided to be overweight in Europe and India, the latter due to a stable, business-friendly and anti-corruption government having been elected
    Originally posted by aroominyork
    remember this is India and everything is relative
    • aroominyork
    • By aroominyork 5th Oct 17, 3:24 PM
    • 300 Posts
    • 72 Thanks
    aroominyork
    • #4
    • 5th Oct 17, 3:24 PM
    • #4
    • 5th Oct 17, 3:24 PM
    remember this is India and everything is relative
    Originally posted by A_T
    True, but the changes Modi is pushing through are pretty radical and people I talk to there say he is genuinely committed to them. Congress (I) is a mess of a party, so looking to the next ten years I think political and economic stability is more likely in India than in the UK!
    Last edited by aroominyork; 05-10-2017 at 3:52 PM. Reason: Decided to add an "!" at the end to limit the flack I get.
    • greendoor665
    • By greendoor665 5th Oct 17, 5:36 PM
    • 44 Posts
    • 91 Thanks
    greendoor665
    • #5
    • 5th Oct 17, 5:36 PM
    • #5
    • 5th Oct 17, 5:36 PM
    You seem to be making quite a few finger in the air judgement calls which may or may not turn out right. You've decided to go overweight India which is fine, but now just a few months later you're reading all the various political and economic news stories about India, trying to analyse them, questioning your decision and changing your strategy.

    Why not stick to your strategy for a longer time period and resist the urge to tinker around and second guess the market. Only time will tell if your strategy works or not and so far it's been far too short a time period. By buying and selling funds more regularly you make it more likely that your returns lag the market.

    Personally I couldn't be bothered going into the amount of detail and research you're going into for just 1 country which by market cap is quite small, and one which has more than its fair share of corruption.
    • bostonerimus
    • By bostonerimus 5th Oct 17, 5:50 PM
    • 1,231 Posts
    • 686 Thanks
    bostonerimus
    • #6
    • 5th Oct 17, 5:50 PM
    • #6
    • 5th Oct 17, 5:50 PM
    My view is that worrying about returns in the short term is a fast way to heart trouble and that trying to time the market is a fools game. Get an asset allocation that you can live with for the long term and don't chase return.
    Misanthrope in search of similar for mutual loathing
    • aroominyork
    • By aroominyork 5th Oct 17, 6:29 PM
    • 300 Posts
    • 72 Thanks
    aroominyork
    • #7
    • 5th Oct 17, 6:29 PM
    • #7
    • 5th Oct 17, 6:29 PM
    As you say, Linton and bostonerimus, I am trying to get an allocation I can live with. My initial hunch to put a fair chunk into India before thinking about other emerging markets was flawed. This thread is me thinking about whether to keep some India or dump it all and I was/am hoping to get some other perspectives about the country to help me formulate my thinking.
    • bostonerimus
    • By bostonerimus 5th Oct 17, 7:03 PM
    • 1,231 Posts
    • 686 Thanks
    bostonerimus
    • #8
    • 5th Oct 17, 7:03 PM
    • #8
    • 5th Oct 17, 7:03 PM
    This is why I advocate a simple market cap approach. The more complex the asset allocation the more second guessing and worry about when to get in or out sell or buy or adjust things on news reports of a vague change in the wind.
    Last edited by bostonerimus; 05-10-2017 at 7:06 PM.
    Misanthrope in search of similar for mutual loathing
    • A_T
    • By A_T 5th Oct 17, 7:29 PM
    • 241 Posts
    • 122 Thanks
    A_T
    • #9
    • 5th Oct 17, 7:29 PM
    • #9
    • 5th Oct 17, 7:29 PM
    As you say, Linton and bostonerimus, I am trying to get an allocation I can live with. My initial hunch to put a fair chunk into India before thinking about other emerging markets was flawed. This thread is me thinking about whether to keep some India or dump it all and I was/am hoping to get some other perspectives about the country to help me formulate my thinking.
    Originally posted by aroominyork
    I am invested in EMIM. It has an allocation of India.
    • aroominyork
    • By aroominyork 5th Oct 17, 7:44 PM
    • 300 Posts
    • 72 Thanks
    aroominyork
    This is why I advocate a simple market cap approach. The more complex the asset allocation the more second guessing and worry about when to get in or out sell or buy or adjust things on news reports of a vague change in the wind.
    Originally posted by bostonerimus
    Understood, and your views about Vanguard have been firmly taken on board. I am keeping a monthly record of my portfolio's progress and am comparing it to VLS60 and VLS80. After a year I will decide whether to stay active or go passive.
    • bostonerimus
    • By bostonerimus 5th Oct 17, 8:38 PM
    • 1,231 Posts
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    bostonerimus
    My comments are applicable to an active portfolio too. Whether you use active or tracker funds you should set an asset allocation that allows you to sleep and night and not think about tweaking on bits of economic news or on short term market movements. Let your active funds do the active investing......don't go buying and selling within your portfolio in an effort to time the market......that way madness lies.
    Last edited by bostonerimus; 05-10-2017 at 8:45 PM.
    Misanthrope in search of similar for mutual loathing
    • aroominyork
    • By aroominyork 5th Oct 17, 9:25 PM
    • 300 Posts
    • 72 Thanks
    aroominyork
    My comments are applicable to an active portfolio too. Whether you use active or tracker funds you should set an asset allocation that allows you to sleep and night and not think about tweaking on bits of economic news or on short term market movements. Let your active funds do the active investing......don't go buying and selling within your portfolio in an effort to time the market......that way madness lies.
    Originally posted by bostonerimus
    Yes, I understand that. The tweaks I am making at the moment are, three months after starting to DIY, arriving at that asset allocation. It's taking a little trial and error as you can only really work out what you are comfortable with when investing real cash... and, of course, while gaining insight from taking on board guidance from good folks such as yourself.
    • Alexland
    • By Alexland 5th Oct 17, 11:14 PM
    • 786 Posts
    • 486 Thanks
    Alexland
    I work in a multinational company and have managed Indian workers for about 10 years with some of them becoming good friends. From what they say about their lives and economy I would have no hesitation investing in their country. No idea what the short term returns would be in India any more than on UK stock however if following a fixed allocation the rebalancing would work it's magic to deliver returns.
    • george4064
    • By george4064 5th Oct 17, 11:28 PM
    • 865 Posts
    • 932 Thanks
    george4064
    Long term holder of Pacific Assets Trust here, it is overweight to India vs benchmark which Im very happy with.

    Worth checking out.
    Last edited by george4064; 05-10-2017 at 11:30 PM.
    "If you arenít willing to own a stock for ten years, donít even think about owning it for ten minutesĒ Warren Buffett

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    • Apodemus
    • By Apodemus 6th Oct 17, 7:34 AM
    • 958 Posts
    • 769 Thanks
    Apodemus
    I wonder if the OP is looking too much at underlying capital growth and ignoring the income side of things? Companies in emerging markets might be capable of cash generation at levels higher than in developed markets. Has to be balanced against currency risk, though.
    • bostonerimus
    • By bostonerimus 6th Oct 17, 11:51 AM
    • 1,231 Posts
    • 686 Thanks
    bostonerimus
    Yes, I understand that. The tweaks I am making at the moment are, three months after starting to DIY, arriving at that asset allocation. It's taking a little trial and error as you can only really work out what you are comfortable with when investing real cash... and, of course, while gaining insight from taking on board guidance from good folks such as yourself.
    Originally posted by aroominyork
    In total you have 8% invested in the funds you mention in the original posting. I don't think you really need to be worrying too much about investments at that level.
    Misanthrope in search of similar for mutual loathing
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