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  • FIRST POST
    • kidmugsy
    • By kidmugsy 2nd Oct 17, 12:35 PM
    • 9,894Posts
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    kidmugsy
    What every reader here should know.
    • #1
    • 2nd Oct 17, 12:35 PM
    What every reader here should know. 2nd Oct 17 at 12:35 PM
    http://www.bmj.com/content/358/bmj.j4208
Page 1
    • sheramber
    • By sheramber 2nd Oct 17, 1:01 PM
    • 3,967 Posts
    • 2,951 Thanks
    sheramber
    • #2
    • 2nd Oct 17, 1:01 PM
    • #2
    • 2nd Oct 17, 1:01 PM
    I don't click on unexplained links.
    • ischofie1
    • By ischofie1 2nd Oct 17, 1:50 PM
    • 189 Posts
    • 152 Thanks
    ischofie1
    • #3
    • 2nd Oct 17, 1:50 PM
    • #3
    • 2nd Oct 17, 1:50 PM
    Me neither.
    • marlot
    • By marlot 2nd Oct 17, 1:59 PM
    • 3,133 Posts
    • 2,274 Thanks
    marlot
    • #4
    • 2nd Oct 17, 1:59 PM
    • #4
    • 2nd Oct 17, 1:59 PM
    The link is fine (British Medical Journal) but the content isn't that helpful unless you're an actuary.

    The ONS site is rather more helpful: https://visual.ons.gov.uk/how-long-will-my-pension-need-to-last/
    • Alexland
    • By Alexland 2nd Oct 17, 2:28 PM
    • 731 Posts
    • 461 Thanks
    Alexland
    • #5
    • 2nd Oct 17, 2:28 PM
    • #5
    • 2nd Oct 17, 2:28 PM
    Eventually everyone dies.
    • crv1963
    • By crv1963 2nd Oct 17, 2:36 PM
    • 158 Posts
    • 417 Thanks
    crv1963
    • #6
    • 2nd Oct 17, 2:36 PM
    • #6
    • 2nd Oct 17, 2:36 PM
    The link is fine (British Medical Journal) but the content isn't that helpful unless you're an actuary.

    The ONS site is rather more helpful: https://visual.ons.gov.uk/how-long-will-my-pension-need-to-last/
    Originally posted by marlot


    The BMJ paper link from the OP is an academic study so a bit deep but in essence is trying to answer a question from the National Institute for Clinical Excellence(NICE)- is there a tool that can predict mortality in the over 65s? The aim is then to enable clinicians with the person affected to reduce/ manage those risks.


    For most of us (the general population) it, when read, seems to illustrate to me at least that should we have the misfortune to have one of the pre-existing "flags" or risks we should do whatever we can to reduce or self manage the risks. That can be to take medication prescribed or make lifestyle changes or whatever is needed as clearly risk cannot be completely eliminated.


    The second link is a general indicator of life expectancy and although very generalised it can be used to give a very rough estimate of life expectancy.


    It might be worth noting that even if you like me suffer from one of the flags/ risks it is possible to lead a full life and life expectancy if you make sensible adjustments. There is a real danger that someone can read things into research papers/ things read on the internet and end up living in fear!


    The biggest single UK risk factor for people is smoking, hard to stop (learnt from personal experience) but I really do think if I can stop then anyone can. And yes I still love the smell of fresh tobacco smoke and yet have to stay stopped!


    CRV
    CRV1963- Light bulb moment Sept 15- Planning the great escape- aka retirement!
    • speedyrite
    • By speedyrite 2nd Oct 17, 2:56 PM
    • 120 Posts
    • 43 Thanks
    speedyrite
    • #7
    • 2nd Oct 17, 2:56 PM
    • #7
    • 2nd Oct 17, 2:56 PM
    The only thing I need to know is what my Statistics teacher taught me in 1973: "the probability of death is 1". Don't want to know, either precisely or vaguely, when I can expect to die! The simple fact that "one day" I will do so is, for me, more than enough to know about the matter...
    • mgdavid
    • By mgdavid 2nd Oct 17, 3:13 PM
    • 5,275 Posts
    • 4,460 Thanks
    mgdavid
    • #8
    • 2nd Oct 17, 3:13 PM
    • #8
    • 2nd Oct 17, 3:13 PM
    The only thing I need to know is what my Statistics teacher taught me in 1973: "the probability of death is 1". Don't want to know, either precisely or vaguely, when I can expect to die! The simple fact that "one day" I will do so is, for me, more than enough to know about the matter...
    Originally posted by speedyrite
    I think that's a very odd view, and hope for everyone else's wellbeing in retirement that it's an unusual view.
    A salary slave no more.....
    • bigadaj
    • By bigadaj 2nd Oct 17, 3:49 PM
    • 10,803 Posts
    • 7,100 Thanks
    bigadaj
    • #9
    • 2nd Oct 17, 3:49 PM
    • #9
    • 2nd Oct 17, 3:49 PM
    Though soem might say that from a population and planetary perspective then increasing life expectancy generally, and certainly the over 65s, isn't necessarily a good thing.
    • talby
    • By talby 2nd Oct 17, 4:03 PM
    • 9 Posts
    • 3 Thanks
    talby
    I've found the tool over at riskprediction.org.uk ("Risk prediction in surgery") to be quite a good tool in the past - go to "Calculators and tools" and then "Life expectancy calculator". Sorry I can't post the direct link.

    It allows one to adjust for family history, exercise, BMI, smoking and drinking to give a "Risk adjusted life expectancy". Quite a sobering tool....
    • speedyrite
    • By speedyrite 3rd Oct 17, 8:08 AM
    • 120 Posts
    • 43 Thanks
    speedyrite
    I think that's a very odd view
    Originally posted by mgdavid
    Is it? So what? It's a point of view.

    and hope for everyone else's wellbeing in retirement that it's an unusual view.
    Originally posted by mgdavid
    It's MY view though, expressed in free conversation, not to be interpreted as my desire to impose it on everybody else that it should be their compulsory view! And a view unrelated to my financial planning in retirement.
    • mgdavid
    • By mgdavid 3rd Oct 17, 11:58 PM
    • 5,275 Posts
    • 4,460 Thanks
    mgdavid
    ......And a view unrelated to my financial planning in retirement.
    Originally posted by speedyrite
    Now that bit I find completely illogical!
    And that is my point of view.
    A salary slave no more.....
    • dunroving
    • By dunroving 4th Oct 17, 2:41 PM
    • 588 Posts
    • 283 Thanks
    dunroving
    Science is still more obsessed with quantity of life and less with quality. Medical advances sometimes keep our bodies going past the point where it's morally justifiable to do so.
    • Malthusian
    • By Malthusian 4th Oct 17, 3:09 PM
    • 3,435 Posts
    • 5,269 Thanks
    Malthusian
    Science is still more obsessed with quantity of life and less with quality.
    Originally posted by dunroving
    In the same way as the lumberjacking industry is obsessed with chopping down trees and not with the quality of the furniture they're made into. Because they're lumberjacks, not carpenters, and it's not their job. Science is able to make medicine that extends our life, but it can't make medicine that makes people happy. Science's job is to extend your life, it's your job to fill it.
    • Chickereeeee
    • By Chickereeeee 4th Oct 17, 4:19 PM
    • 423 Posts
    • 262 Thanks
    Chickereeeee
    Well, I have not died yet, so, based on my experience, I am not going to.

    Just a minute, what is that tiny writing?

    "Please remember that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance"

    Darn

    C
    • bigadaj
    • By bigadaj 6th Oct 17, 11:20 AM
    • 10,803 Posts
    • 7,100 Thanks
    bigadaj
    Science is still more obsessed with quantity of life and less with quality. Medical advances sometimes keep our bodies going past the point where it's morally justifiable to do so.
    Originally posted by dunroving
    Yes, well that's the abrogation of moral responsibility primarily from politicians and lawyers/ judges.

    It is a particularly perverse situation where very elderly people, with no wish to live, have their life extended by medical practices that didn't exist decades ago.

    We've had people with terrible injuries or diseases fail to gain the right to die, and sometimes people's having to cross halfway across Europe to do what they want.

    Meanwhile millions are spent on these medical practices whilst there is a crisis in NHS funding, it's all quite mad.
    • dunroving
    • By dunroving 6th Oct 17, 6:16 PM
    • 588 Posts
    • 283 Thanks
    dunroving
    In the same way as the lumberjacking industry is obsessed with chopping down trees and not with the quality of the furniture they're made into. Because they're lumberjacks, not carpenters, and it's not their job. Science is able to make medicine that extends our life, but it can't make medicine that makes people happy. Science's job is to extend your life, it's your job to fill it.
    Originally posted by Malthusian
    Quality of life isn't just happiness. It's as much the potential subject of science as life expectancy. Re: your last comment "Science's job is to extend your life", not sure I'd agree that's always the case; see below.

    Think about painkillers, for example - they don't extend life, but they do improve quality of life. Imagine if an A&E department didn't have them.

    Yes, well that's the abrogation of moral responsibility primarily from politicians and lawyers/ judges.

    It is a particularly perverse situation where very elderly people, with no wish to live, have their life extended by medical practices that didn't exist decades ago.

    We've had people with terrible injuries or diseases fail to gain the right to die, and sometimes people's having to cross halfway across Europe to do what they want.

    Meanwhile millions are spent on these medical practices whilst there is a crisis in NHS funding, it's all quite mad.
    Originally posted by bigadaj
    Glad someone got my point. I'd also suggest though that the Western medical model looks at death as "failure", so there is a medical ethics issue there, not just a political issue.
    Last edited by dunroving; 06-10-2017 at 6:19 PM.
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