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    • funkey_monkey
    • By funkey_monkey 24th Feb 17, 10:10 PM
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    funkey_monkey
    Renting vs buying in 2017
    • #1
    • 24th Feb 17, 10:10 PM
    Renting vs buying in 2017 24th Feb 17 at 10:10 PM
    Hi,

    I've been looking at purchasing a property a number of times, but due to fear and then job security woes (which ended with being made redundant) I have never yet bought.

    I'm now thankfully back in work but just renting a room with a friend whilst I get back on my feet again.

    I'm now looking to move onwards into my own place. I've been looking to rent somewhere in Belfast (I work in the city centre) but I've found that the rental prices make a mortgage a cheaper option for me. (got ~£120k set aside for a place).

    I'm just wondering with Trump, Brexit, folk on the hill, etc where is our property market going - especially in Belfast.

    Am I best to go and rent for 6 - 12 months (costing approx £4,800 in rent - assuming £800pcm for a decent city centre apartment rented for 6 months - although it will more likely be a 12month contract which relieve me of £9,600) or should I start now looking for a property to purchase?

    I'm a single person. I would be looking in S/SE Belfast - as being an ex uni student its the only area I know in the city where I'd be comfortable enough to drop anchor and >£150,000.

    What is currently happening on our local market - are they going above/below asking? Staying on long? Bidding wars?

    I've read that a shortage of supply is maintaining high prices. However, with the uncertainity of Brexit looming in the distance is there any scope for a downturn? I'm aware though that the BoE gov has recently upgraded his outlook on Brexit effects.

    So should I rent or buy?
Page 4
    • motorguy
    • By motorguy 2nd Oct 17, 1:17 PM
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    motorguy
    If you can afford to buy, buy, it really is that simple
    Originally posted by andrewf75
    You would think so, but not on this thread / board it isnt.
    You are not special. You are not a beautiful and unique snowflake.
    • qwert yuiop
    • By qwert yuiop 2nd Oct 17, 2:17 PM
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    qwert yuiop
    Well whether buying a house is a good idea or not, it has to be accepted that our experience of the property market is somewhat different from what the English are accustomed to. Fifty percent drop in a couple of years? Imagine the howls if that were to happen in London. Who knows, it might. Who knows, can you think of any reason why it mightn't happen again here?

    Simplistic advice like the above led to disaster and regret for many in the run up to 2007.

    I was over in London last week, and all the talk was of prices dropping. Having lived through our boom and bust, I'd say a prospective buyer there should be cautious. I can think of few reasons to spend £50,000 more than you need to. In fact, I can't think of any.
    Last edited by qwert yuiop; 02-10-2017 at 2:42 PM.
    • andrewf75
    • By andrewf75 2nd Oct 17, 2:43 PM
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    andrewf75
    You would think so, but not on this thread / board it isnt.
    Originally posted by motorguy
    ah, the dangers of responding to a thread in a part of the forum you don't usually inhabit!
    • andrewf75
    • By andrewf75 2nd Oct 17, 2:46 PM
    • 7,590 Posts
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    andrewf75
    Simplistic advice like the above led to disaster and regret for many in the run up to 2007.
    Originally posted by qwert yuiop
    only if you buy for short term investment. I was under the impression the poster wanted somewhere to live. In which case it doesn't really matter whether prices go down, they will likely rise in the long term and even if they don't the point is you own the property once you've paid off the mortgage!
    • qwert yuiop
    • By qwert yuiop 2nd Oct 17, 3:13 PM
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    qwert yuiop
    only if you buy for short term investment. I was under the impression the poster wanted somewhere to live. In which case it doesn't really matter whether prices go down, they will likely rise in the long term and even if they don't the point is you own the property once you've paid off the mortgage!
    Originally posted by andrewf75
    Well, yes, but... property prices halved after 2007 in Northern Ireland. Anyone Ill advised enough to have bought the day before the crash ( I'm sure there was one) is now ten years into a mortgage for a house they paid twice as much for as they could have if they had waited a couple of years. Prices have risen a little in that full decade, but only a little, and are nowhere near the levels of 2007. These buyers are reminded of this every month when they pay twice as much every month as someone next door who bought a couple of years later.
    It was a bad buy in 2007, it's still a bad buy.
    Our experience is radically different from yours - so far. Once the idea becomes pervasive that prices are dropping, people stop buying. This of course causes prices to drop further, since a seller will only be able to generate interest if the price looks like a bargain. A crash therefore generates.. a crash.
    Nobody knows, it may be a false alarm or it may be a meltdown developing, but soft landings are a fantasy.
    Last edited by qwert yuiop; 02-10-2017 at 3:36 PM.
    • motorguy
    • By motorguy 2nd Oct 17, 4:46 PM
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    motorguy
    Well, yes, but... property prices halved after 2007 in Northern Ireland. Anyone Ill advised enough to have bought the day before the crash ( I'm sure there was one) is now ten years into a mortgage for a house they paid twice as much for as they could have if they had waited a couple of years. Prices have risen a little in that full decade, but only a little, and are nowhere near the levels of 2007. These buyers are reminded of this every month when they pay twice as much every month as someone next door who bought a couple of years later.
    It was a bad buy in 2007, it's still a bad buy.
    Our experience is radically different from yours - so far. Once the idea becomes pervasive that prices are dropping, people stop buying. This of course causes prices to drop further, since a seller will only be able to generate interest if the price looks like a bargain. A crash therefore generates.. a crash.
    Nobody knows, it may be a false alarm or it may be a meltdown developing, but soft landings are a fantasy.
    Originally posted by qwert yuiop
    We had the hard landing 10 years ago. Prices are quite literally still a fraction of what they were then.

    If someone wants a home - rather than an investment that they need to go up in value - buy, pay it off over whatever mortgage term you can afford, and relax and enjoy your purchase.
    You are not special. You are not a beautiful and unique snowflake.
    • motorguy
    • By motorguy 2nd Oct 17, 4:50 PM
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    motorguy
    only if you buy for short term investment. I was under the impression the poster wanted somewhere to live. In which case it doesn't really matter whether prices go down, they will likely rise in the long term and even if they don't the point is you own the property once you've paid off the mortgage!
    Originally posted by andrewf75
    Indeed, however several on this forum are extremely risk averse.
    You are not special. You are not a beautiful and unique snowflake.
    • qwert yuiop
    • By qwert yuiop 2nd Oct 17, 4:52 PM
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    qwert yuiop
    It's been said before, but all you can say with certainty is it's a better time to buy now than it was then. It's not the sure fire winner promoted by the earlier poster.
    • motorguy
    • By motorguy 2nd Oct 17, 5:04 PM
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    motorguy
    It's been said before, but all you can say with certainty is it's a better time to buy now than it was then. It's not the sure fire winner promoted by the earlier poster.
    Originally posted by qwert yuiop
    ** It doesnt matter **

    Buy at a price you're happy with, and pay it off. Prices are just over half what they were at the peak, have risen roughly 4% per year this past 5 years.

    You're never going to get a Sign From God that you should buy now and that He will make sure prices will only ever go up.
    Last edited by motorguy; 02-10-2017 at 5:06 PM.
    You are not special. You are not a beautiful and unique snowflake.
    • qwert yuiop
    • By qwert yuiop 2nd Oct 17, 5:18 PM
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    qwert yuiop
    Indeed, however several on this forum are extremely risk averse.
    Originally posted by motorguy
    I wonder what the reason for that could be? Something to do with the experience of the last decade in the property market, I'd say. Once bitten etc.
    I bought a few years back (post crash) because I wanted the property. What's it worth? Whatever someone will pay for it. Could be more, could be less than I paid for it.
    • qwert yuiop
    • By qwert yuiop 2nd Oct 17, 5:20 PM
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    qwert yuiop
    ** It doesnt matter **

    Buy at a price you're happy with, and pay it off. Prices are just over half what they were at the peak, have risen roughly 4% per year this past 5 years.

    You're never going to get a Sign From God that you should buy now and that He will make sure prices will only ever go up.
    Originally posted by motorguy
    The other poster believes it's always a good time to buy. Must be an estate agent.

    And of course it matters.
    • motorguy
    • By motorguy 2nd Oct 17, 5:41 PM
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    motorguy
    I wonder what the reason for that could be? Something to do with the experience of the last decade in the property market, I'd say. Once bitten etc.
    I bought a few years back (post crash) because I wanted the property. What's it worth? Whatever someone will pay for it. Could be more, could be less than I paid for it.
    Originally posted by qwert yuiop
    Are you really saying you're expecting another MASSIVE market adjustment DOWNWARDS like we saw in 2007? Because if not, why does it really matter what happened 10 years ago?

    The last decade has been interesting, but not devastating for those who hadnt bought on the sharp rise - which is the vast majority of people.

    If you were to look outside that 10 year window, prices were going crazy from around 2004 upwards, peaking 2007/2008. When they dropped sharply, some people got badly burnt. For the vast majority of people it was a paper loss as it was money they never had in the first place.

    Those who bought say, pre 2004 and are still merrily paying away at the mortgage wont have cared one jot.

    Those who bought say, from 2010 onwards might have seen a little decline, but have seen that recover and are perhaps up a little.

    We have seen a very slow, gradual recovery here and prices are still relatively low - maybe 55% of what they were at that massive peak.

    If you're buying pretty much in a trough of prices anyway, then if you're buying a home not an investment it matters very little whether we see some movement upwards or downwards in the market between now and when you're mortgage finishes.
    You are not special. You are not a beautiful and unique snowflake.
    • motorguy
    • By motorguy 2nd Oct 17, 5:42 PM
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    motorguy
    And of course it matters.
    Originally posted by qwert yuiop
    So go on then - WHY?

    If you're buying a home not an investment to pay off over say 25 years and we're roughly speaking in a trough of prices anyway, WHY does it matter if prices might go up a bit or down a bit at some point in the future?
    Last edited by motorguy; 02-10-2017 at 5:51 PM.
    You are not special. You are not a beautiful and unique snowflake.
    • qwert yuiop
    • By qwert yuiop 2nd Oct 17, 6:24 PM
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    qwert yuiop
    Because I would imagine paying a mortgage of £1000 a month is preferable to one of £2000, particularly to those who frequent a money saver website. It'd matter to me, anyway, even if you apparently don't care.
    Those who bought within your little bracket, and there must be many, since the turnover in houses then was massive, have been pretty much slaughtered. Still paying double what they would be if theyd hung on for a year or two.
    I don't particularly expect anything, I'm just saying there's no reason why we couldn't get another dive. Have I contradicted some law of nature or something?
    Last edited by qwert yuiop; 02-10-2017 at 6:26 PM.
    • motorguy
    • By motorguy 2nd Oct 17, 7:19 PM
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    motorguy
    Because I would imagine paying a mortgage of £1000 a month is preferable to one of £2000, particularly to those who frequent a money saver website. It'd matter to me, anyway, even if you apparently don't care.
    Those who bought within your little bracket, and there must be many, since the turnover in houses then was massive, have been pretty much slaughtered. Still paying double what they would be if theyd hung on for a year or two.
    I don't particularly expect anything, I'm just saying there's no reason why we couldn't get another dive. Have I contradicted some law of nature or something?
    Originally posted by qwert yuiop
    So, you're expecting another 50% drop in the market, from where we are now?

    We've had a MASSIVE price readjustment 10 years ago now, after a period of rapid growth in prices, and we've had approx 7 years of relative stability since 2010 / 2011 ish, with prices growing slowing at maybe 4% per year, and we're still only around half what the market was / roughly where it was in 2004/2005, but you're expecting the market to drop by another 50% drop??

    OR you at least believe thats a real and viable possibility??

    OK.......
    You are not special. You are not a beautiful and unique snowflake.
    • qwert yuiop
    • By qwert yuiop 2nd Oct 17, 8:00 PM
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    qwert yuiop
    As I say, I'm not particularly expecting anything. There might be a downturn, there might not. Is it impossible? I can't think of any reason why it would be. OK..?
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