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  • FIRST POST
    • larochelleuk
    • By larochelleuk 20th Feb 17, 2:50 PM
    • 96Posts
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    larochelleuk
    How Brexit impacts over 50s - thread
    • #1
    • 20th Feb 17, 2:50 PM
    How Brexit impacts over 50s - thread 20th Feb 17 at 2:50 PM
    Whatever your view on Brexit, it's clearly a gamble and probably wise to prepare for choppy waters ahead in terms of financial security. Here's a thread for news and discussion of how Britain may change for over 50's.

    Pensioners '£105 worse off within five years' as UK faces £1.3 billion Brexit black hole

    Britain's 12 million pensioners are likely to be £105 a year worse off within five years.

    The nation’s pension pot is facing a looming !£1.3billion black hole due to Brexit, warn figures from the independent Office for Budget Responsibilty.

    The state pension is set using a triple lock system which means it rises in line with earnings, inflation or 2.5 per cent, whichever is the highest.

    The OBR predicts this will be average earnings until 2019 but from 2020-21 the increases will be just the 2.5 per cent figure – hence the £1.3billion shortfall, reports the Sunday People.

    Former Lib Dem Health Minister Norman Lamb said: “No one voted to make pensioners £105 a year worse off.

    "If the Government wants to avoid making the situation worse, they must reject a hard and destructive Brexit.”

    Paul Johnson, of the Institute for Fiscal Studies think tank, said pay stagnation will be the worst in 70 years. That means workers will be earning no more in 2021 than they were in 2008.

    Pensions are also under threat from a review over whether to scrap the triple lock."
Page 3
    • ThinkingOutLoud
    • By ThinkingOutLoud 3rd Mar 17, 10:08 AM
    • 484 Posts
    • 280 Thanks
    ThinkingOutLoud
    There are hopes among Brexit fanatics that Spain can be separated from other more hardline EU nations"
    Originally posted by larochelleuk
    And there are hopes amongst some remain fanatics of a second referendum to not leave the EU.

    I suspect the rest in the sane middle think it is all a bit more subtle than the hyperbole. And perhaps that it is the hyperbole that does not help. Not everything about Brexit is darkest black or brightest white.

    The EU and each of the constituent countries and the UK are all likely better off with some kind of sane exit. But, that doesn't mean their fanatics won't be shouting all the while.
    I am just thinking out loud - nothing I say should be relied upon!
    I do however reserve the right to be correct by accident.
    • mumps
    • By mumps 3rd Mar 17, 10:42 AM
    • 5,947 Posts
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    mumps
    Not sure how / where you are said it was complicated.

    I thought your concern was that people with conditions would not be able to afford to go to Europe if the EHIC vanished. Surely the same will be true for EU people coming to the UK, if no EHIC exists.
    But the article is about what it would cost British people to go abroad. Maybe a surgeon in France or Germany will write a similar article about coming to GB.


    As we agree, visitors to and from the USA and other non-EHIC countries do OK without a reciprocal agreement - so maybe even if the EHIC ends the world will keep on turning.

    I don't know if anyone is unable to travel due to the cost of insurance so I can't say everyone does OK, some might not travel and some might just risk it. I don't think the world will stop turning, it managed before mass tourism but is that what people want?

    There is no concession though - it is reciprocal agreement. The circa £40M is costs the UK net which sounds like a large number until you divide it by £110+ Billion NHS budget.

    My reference to a concession was in respect of the USA not offering any sort of concession, I know the EHIC isn't a concession.

    So let us both hope things can be agreed, to continue to the advantage of the majority...there is a it won't but not the scaremongering inevitability of the surgeon's claim.
    Originally posted by ThinkingOutLoud
    I don't think anyone is saying it is inevitable, I think it is possible that insurance will be an issue for some people if the EHIC goes.
    Sell £1500

    2831.00/£1500
    • ThinkingOutLoud
    • By ThinkingOutLoud 3rd Mar 17, 10:51 AM
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    ThinkingOutLoud
    Mumps - I think we almost agree on your last statement.

    But, as no insurer is yet providing any quotes for France without the existence of EHIC - how could he get these quotes today?

    The point about the cost implications for a German coming to the UK are highly relevant. The impact is reciprocal means that EU or not EU - both sides have the same vested interest or impact.

    (I am not ignoring that many nations pay for their healthcare which includes some cover abroad - which is what we add on when we buy travel insurance - but their premiums would go up for the same reason without EHIC).

    = It is not one-sided with only the UK tourists standing to lose out if common sense can't prevail. That is why it may be negotiated as we both desire.
    I am just thinking out loud - nothing I say should be relied upon!
    I do however reserve the right to be correct by accident.
    • mumps
    • By mumps 3rd Mar 17, 12:41 PM
    • 5,947 Posts
    • 12,459 Thanks
    mumps
    Mumps - I think we almost agree on your last statement.

    But, as no insurer is yet providing any quotes for France without the existence of EHIC - how could he get these quotes today?

    The point about the cost implications for a German coming to the UK are highly relevant. The impact is reciprocal means that EU or not EU - both sides have the same vested interest or impact.

    (I am not ignoring that many nations pay for their healthcare which includes some cover abroad - which is what we add on when we buy travel insurance - but their premiums would go up for the same reason without EHIC).

    = It is not one-sided with only the UK tourists standing to lose out if common sense can't prevail. That is why it may be negotiated as we both desire.
    Originally posted by ThinkingOutLoud
    No definitely not one sided, that is partly why I said it is complicated. I think one of the things that bothers me most about remainers and brexiteers (or whatever they are being called) is that they are all so certain about what will happen. It is an experiment and like all experiments you don't know the result until after the experiment.

    Fingers crossed.
    Sell £1500

    2831.00/£1500
    • larochelleuk
    • By larochelleuk 3rd Mar 17, 7:26 PM
    • 96 Posts
    • 11 Thanks
    larochelleuk
    And there are hopes amongst some remain fanatics of a second referendum to not leave the EU.
    Originally posted by ThinkingOutLoud
    I also disapproved of the author's term 'fanatic' but am sharing useful perspectives for discussion regardless of my own views. Others are welcome to share Brexit articles relevant to this group and thread too.
    • larochelleuk
    • By larochelleuk 3rd Mar 17, 8:31 PM
    • 96 Posts
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    larochelleuk
    There are of course phenomenal areas of uncertainty, and it's incredibly complicated, but that's not the end of the story. It is not just one vast grey unmapped terrain and nobody whatsoever with a flashlight, thankfully. We can granulate this landscape into potential outcomes and make probability estimates. There are some outcomes which we can delineate as impossible.

    I researched EVERY estimate available on the cost to households of Brexit. Every one predicts that households will lose money. There is no estimate that leaves Britain financially better off for low and middle income households (extremely wealthy politicians and newspaper owners will profit nicely). The only question is how much will it cost us?

    The overwhelming majority of estimates within that range would be unacceptable to the overwhelming majority of Leave voters. Many people will simply find it unaffordable whatever their opinion on the matter. Therefore some argue that people should maintain the right to change their mind, and to be given an opportunity to make a decision - for the first time - based on a costs/ benefit assessment when available.

    Alternatively Theresa May might negotiate a deal that's acceptable to Leavers. That's approx a 10% chance so like hitting a bullseye.
    Last edited by larochelleuk; 10-03-2017 at 9:36 PM.
    • larochelleuk
    • By larochelleuk 4th Mar 17, 2:21 AM
    • 96 Posts
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    larochelleuk
    Database protecting UK migrants in EU from Brexit ‘misinformation’ to be built by Cambridge researchers

    "University of Cambridge researchers have set out to compile a database of communication routes that will allow UK expats residing in EU nations to receive reliable, up-to-the-minute advice throughout the negotiation process once Article 50 is triggered. [...]

    Last year, the BBC’s ‘Reality Check’ website reported that there are around 1.2 million UK-born people living in EU nations. Over 300,000 of those live in Spain, of which one-third receive a UK state pension.

    Professor Maura Sheehan, an economist from Edinburgh Napier University’s Business School says, “Housing markets in areas along the Mediterranean coast could collapse as retirees try to sell up, but with no new UK expats looking to buy. Life savings could get swept away in the confusion. Meanwhile there is no slack in UK social infrastructure for ageing expats returning en masse with expectations of support.

    “The idea that we could see socially isolated baby-boomer expats back in the UK with health conditions, financial woes and even ending in destitution as a result of bad decisions based on misinformation should not simply be written off as so-called ‘remoaner’ hysteria.”

    [continues]
    • ThinkingOutLoud
    • By ThinkingOutLoud 4th Mar 17, 8:00 AM
    • 484 Posts
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    ThinkingOutLoud
    So here is some relatively balanced sanguine analysis IMHO

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/eu-facts-what-would-leaving-the-eu-mean-for-expats/

    Including for those expats needing something to cling to, a little logic why some of the worst won't be likely to occur as stated at least. It may, but then you know how it is with expert predictions of gloom.
    I am just thinking out loud - nothing I say should be relied upon!
    I do however reserve the right to be correct by accident.
    • seven-day-weekend
    • By seven-day-weekend 4th Mar 17, 9:26 AM
    • 28,324 Posts
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    seven-day-weekend
    Agreed.

    The one thing that is definite is that nothing is definite. Except once Article 50 is triggered - the bun fight begins for real.

    I would hazard a guess that it would be equally important for every major EU country to want to see a similar arrangement. Remember it is not just us on holiday, but the many EU citizens who come to the UK. This cuts both ways. So maybe this is an easier to negotiate element than it seems.

    Of course, if you are kind of retired in Spain drawing a UK pension relying on the EHIC for local healthcare access - you may be rather nervous about this and the euro.
    Originally posted by ThinkingOutLoud
    If you are retired and living in Spain then you shouldn't be relying on the EHIC, which is for tourists and visitors. At the moment British Pensioners in the EU are covered on the S1 form. Whether this will change after Brexit, I don't know.

    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/healthcare-in-spain If you are in receipt of a UK old age state pension or long term sickness benefit, obtain an S1 form (previously E121) from the International Pension Centre on +44 191 218 7777. Once issued, register the S1 form with your local INSS office, before you register with your local GP surgery and obtain a medical card.

    When we lived in Spain (2004-2011), we were covered on the S1 first of all because my husband was on long-term sickness Benefit (and I was classed as his dependent so I was covered too) and then from 2010 I was covered in my own right as a British State Pensioner.
    Last edited by seven-day-weekend; 04-03-2017 at 9:35 AM.
    To love someone is to learn the song in their heart and to sing it to them when they have forgotten it
    'I believe in Christianity as I believe that the sun has risen. Not only because I see it, but because I see everything by it': C.S. Lewis
    St. Augustine — 'In essentials, unity; in non-essentials, liberty; in all things, charity.'
    • ThinkingOutLoud
    • By ThinkingOutLoud 5th Mar 17, 8:01 PM
    • 484 Posts
    • 280 Thanks
    ThinkingOutLoud
    If you are retired and living in Spain then you shouldn't be relying on the EHIC[/I]
    Originally posted by seven-day-weekend
    Yes it is more complicated since 2014 too...
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/expat-money/10834116/NHS-rejects-expats-returning-from-Spain.html
    I am just thinking out loud - nothing I say should be relied upon!
    I do however reserve the right to be correct by accident.
    • larochelleuk
    • By larochelleuk 10th Mar 17, 9:01 AM
    • 96 Posts
    • 11 Thanks
    larochelleuk
    If this chart of GDP forecast revisions after the referendum was presented on BBC, we'd be presented with one spokesperson from Leave and one from Remain, and that would obscure the fact that a) still, none forecast the GDP as _actually being better_ b) 1 institution forecasts the GDP as the same, and it is an outlier compared with c) 25 institutions forecasting a fall in GDP.

    A probable fall in GDP is not the end of the world, but hopefully that indicates why there's a legitimate dilemma around how to present this balance fairly.

    When Michael Gove was Education Minister, he was given a unanimous vote of 'no confidence' from the National Union of Teachers. He instigated the dismissal of "economists" and "experts" as blanket categories which remains toxic. This is a man with so much hubris that he wrote a foreword for the Bible. Yet in the media, he would be given equal airtime to all of the heavyweight institutions in the above chart combined.

    I share positive and negative articles as they are published from a range of sources. They are unlikely to be in a 1:1 ratio, because there's no reason why real life should neatly match the binary nature of a referendum.
    Last edited by larochelleuk; 10-03-2017 at 9:17 AM.
    • ThinkingOutLoud
    • By ThinkingOutLoud 10th Mar 17, 9:28 AM
    • 484 Posts
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    ThinkingOutLoud
    Interesting to hear on Radio today how an EU leaders confirmed they are equally determined to ensure that those EU and UK humans living in the UK or EU respectively are given early and sensible clarity on their status.

    Maybe the vested interests of all means negotiating commons sense won't be so impossible on this aspect at least?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39228245

    Nice to see someone not scaremongering for a change.
    I am just thinking out loud - nothing I say should be relied upon!
    I do however reserve the right to be correct by accident.
    • silverwhistle
    • By silverwhistle 12th Mar 17, 9:29 PM
    • 1,386 Posts
    • 1,818 Thanks
    silverwhistle
    I see the WTO, who have no emotional involvement in this issue, are pointing out how difficult and complicated the situation will be for the UK.

    I can't find the article I was reading earlier, but the essential message from the briefing paper quoted was that under WTO rules we can't come to beneficial rules with one party without allowing them to all other WTO participants. I'll see if I can find the link, but it wasn't good news.

    As an over 50 who keeps within their means I will be impacted, so maybe a bottle of wine less a month and my skiing holiday, based on today's £/€ exchange rate will be wince-worthy, but at least I currently have about €100 a week of income from teaching which is priced in euros. After tax it's not massive but pays for my holiday, and as I trust my students and wait to collect some of it in the country involved I even avoid exchange costs!
    • StevieJ
    • By StevieJ 13th Mar 17, 12:53 AM
    • 19,140 Posts
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    StevieJ
    from what I understand the EHIC would continue as before , it works for both parties and will not change


    more scaremongering
    Originally posted by Browntoa
    That's interesting, where did you hear that? A UKIP conference?
    ‘Hard as it is to say now.. I look forward to a United States of Europe, in which the barriers between the nations will be greatly minimised and unrestricted travel will be possible.’
    Winston Churchill 21st Oct 1942
    • ThinkingOutLoud
    • By ThinkingOutLoud 13th Mar 17, 8:32 AM
    • 484 Posts
    • 280 Thanks
    ThinkingOutLoud
    under WTO rules we can't come to beneficial rules with one party without allowing them to all other WTO participants. I'll see if I can find the link, but it wasn't good news.
    Originally posted by silverwhistle
    It isn't news though. WTO rules affect us today too.

    Plenty of articles discussing:-
    http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2017/01/economist-explains-4
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/16/reliance-wto-rules-afterbrexit-not-favoured-option-britain-says/
    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/brexit-explained/brexit-explained-10-things-know-about-world-trade-organization-wto

    So none of it is actual news today - the predicted results are all speculation except to say that things have to be negotiated and there is no good comparative precedent.
    I am just thinking out loud - nothing I say should be relied upon!
    I do however reserve the right to be correct by accident.
    • scotsbob
    • By scotsbob 16th Mar 17, 8:21 AM
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    • 6,954 Thanks
    scotsbob
    from what I understand the EHIC would continue as before , it works for both parties and will not change


    more scaremongering
    Originally posted by Browntoa

    Maybe not. David Davis, Secretary Of State For Exiting The EU met yesterday with the Brexit select committee. Hilary Benn had this exchange with him.


    Benn, "Can you confirm UK citizens will no longer have access to the EHIC card?"
    Davis, "Probably correct."


    Benn, "The UK will no longer be part of the US-EU open skies agreement."
    Davis. "One would assume it will no longer apply to us."


    Benn, "That means there will be customs checks between Northern Ireland and the Republic?"
    Davis, "Already being done in a light way."


    Benn, "So there will be tariffs, so eg UK producers of dairy and meat will be facing 30-40% tariffs, cars 10%"
    Davis, "That's approximately correct."
    • ThinkingOutLoud
    • By ThinkingOutLoud 16th Mar 17, 9:34 AM
    • 484 Posts
    • 280 Thanks
    ThinkingOutLoud
    http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/bills/article-4313060/Insurers-sting-older-travellers-massive-price-hikes.html

    So apparently not even those 5 years older who are a materially worse risk than a 70 year old or even a 90 year old pay sum £800-2500 the professor quoted.
    I am just thinking out loud - nothing I say should be relied upon!
    I do however reserve the right to be correct by accident.
    • ThinkingOutLoud
    • By ThinkingOutLoud 16th Mar 17, 10:50 AM
    • 484 Posts
    • 280 Thanks
    ThinkingOutLoud
    Maybe not. David Davis, Secretary Of State For Exiting The EU met yesterday with the Brexit select committee. Hilary Benn had this exchange with him.


    Benn, "Can you confirm UK citizens will no longer have access to the EHIC card?"
    Davis, "Probably correct."
    Originally posted by scotsbob
    Interesting if you add ALL that he said...

    " Said it was “probably right” that holidaying Britons will lose EHIC cards, which provide free or subsidised healthcare across the EU, but added: “I have not looked at that one.”"

    So maybe he sees that as easier to fix and so less focus on it now?
    OR maybe they think those who enjoy foreign travel should not be subsidised by those who do not
    OR maybe the solution for us won't be called EHIC?

    Australians show a "reciprocal health care card" not an EHIC? Their government manage a deal with multiple EU states.
    I am just thinking out loud - nothing I say should be relied upon!
    I do however reserve the right to be correct by accident.
    • no1catman
    • By no1catman 16th Mar 17, 2:29 PM
    • 2,348 Posts
    • 1,772 Thanks
    no1catman
    What's the big deal about EU health when holidaying? When you travel elsewhere, your travel insurance will be tailor-made to include any health problems. So, it will be the same if you travel to the continent - you have travel insurance which includes health insurance.
    You may be fit enough to travel, but if the tour bus crashes, better have the insurance.

    My previous holidays have been in the UK, prior to that was in Egypt (no change), Poland (wasn't in the EU at the time), and Thailand (no change). Been to Belgium & Holland on short trips both before the Euro - no big deal.
    I used to work for Tesco - now retired - speciality Clubcard
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