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    • Jonamora
    • By Jonamora 24th Jan 17, 5:11 PM
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    Jonamora
    Electric cars
    • #1
    • 24th Jan 17, 5:11 PM
    Electric cars 24th Jan 17 at 5:11 PM
    Just wanted people's opinions on buying an electric car?

    Before long all cars will be electric and therfore is it best to sell petrol car at full value and invest in electric car.

    I don't want to start a new finance deals for 4 years and be complete but then left with and cat nobody wants or has resale value because all are electric.....thoughts

    Jonathan
Page 36
    • Gloomendoom
    • By Gloomendoom 9th Jan 18, 8:17 PM
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    Gloomendoom
    Hi

    Isn't that effectively a cutaway of a complete motor with a simplified drive mechanics assembly, complete with coolant & electronics all contained in one modular assembly? ... if so, I can't really see that being an issue anywhere ...
    Originally posted by zeupater
    I wasn't highlighting any issues, merely pointing out that manufacturers of components like traditional gearboxes are not necessarily going to be "toast" as a result of increasing electrification. ZF, for example, has embraced the changes and diversified into complete EV motor/transmission packages and control systems etc.
    Advice; it rhymes with mice. Advise; it rhymes with wise.
    • zeupater
    • By zeupater 9th Jan 18, 8:34 PM
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    zeupater
    I wasn't highlighting any issues, merely pointing out that manufacturers of components like traditional gearboxes are not necessarily going to be "toast" as a result of increasing electrification. ZF, for example, has embraced the changes and diversified into complete EV motor/transmission packages and control systems etc.
    Originally posted by Gloomendoom
    Hi

    Understood, but the issue raised is that which of the two complete supply chains will fail to exist in it's current form ... drive-train? -or- power-train? as both couldn't exist and maintain the level of profitability to maintain the required level of product & plant investment ... effectively, if the OEM stands back and allows tier1 to take the strain and supply modular solutions then there'll be a massive reduction in fixed overhead recovery at the assembly plants which will lead to consolidation/downsizing of assembly sites to maintain margin, else parts of the supply chain will be subjected to mergers and/or acquisitions to both widen the technology base and achieve scale related economies ...

    HTH
    Z
    "We are what we repeatedly do, excellence then is not an act, but a habit. " ...... Aristotle
    • Gloomendoom
    • By Gloomendoom 9th Jan 18, 10:34 PM
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    Gloomendoom
    Hi

    Understood, but the issue raised is that which of the two complete supply chains will fail to exist in it's current form ... drive-train? -or- power-train? as both couldn't exist and maintain the level of profitability to maintain the required level of product & plant investment ... effectively, if the OEM stands back and allows tier1 to take the strain and supply modular solutions then there'll be a massive reduction in fixed overhead recovery at the assembly plants which will lead to consolidation/downsizing of assembly sites to maintain margin, else parts of the supply chain will be subjected to mergers and/or acquisitions to both widen the technology base and achieve scale related economies ...
    Originally posted by zeupater
    Or, like their suppliers, the OEMs could just adapt and, for example, switch from manufacturing IC engines in-house to manufacturing battery packs.
    Advice; it rhymes with mice. Advise; it rhymes with wise.
    • AnotherJoe
    • By AnotherJoe 9th Jan 18, 10:41 PM
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    AnotherJoe
    Originally posted by Gloomendoom
    There will of course always be those that can adapt and survive, i pointed out the spark plug company as an example. Looks like ZF are attempting the same. That solution may get taken up or it may not, the chinese see this as a massive area where the playing field is level and they are not playing up up to ROTW expertese in ICE.

    Lke dinos, few will become birds and survive (OK I realise thats not an exact analogy).
    Last edited by AnotherJoe; 09-01-2018 at 10:43 PM.
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 10th Jan 18, 8:01 AM
    • 6,294 Posts
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    Martyn1981
    You can easily spent 15 minutes in a service station if there are a few of you. With 2 kids we're likely to be stopping at least every 2 hours.
    Originally posted by Herzlos
    Hi, I may be wrong, but I think the latest Leaf, or perhaps the coming 60kWh Leaf is capable of using 210kW chargers, so in the future, taking your 15min example and running with it, it should be possible to put a 50kWh charge in, and driving another 3-4hrs and 200 miles. that sounds very reasonable to me too.
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 10th Jan 18, 8:10 AM
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    Martyn1981
    I wasn't highlighting any issues, merely pointing out that manufacturers of components like traditional gearboxes are not necessarily going to be "toast" as a result of increasing electrification. ZF, for example, has embraced the changes and diversified into complete EV motor/transmission packages and control systems etc.
    Originally posted by Gloomendoom
    I think you may be missing the point, even if ZF and others stick with gearbox production, then their business will still reduce massively.

    They will go from producing a large and expensive piece of kit, such as a multi gear + reverse manual/automatic gearbox, and replace that with just a very simple gear reduction unit (not really a gear box as it only has one fixed gear).

    Although it's been many decades I can still recall building R/C cars, no gearbox, just a small gear on the motor shaft and a large gear on the prop-shaft to give a gear reduction from the high speed motor and a torque increase, that's all it was. However the limited slip differential was a monster with so many fiddly parts.

    So there is simply no comparison between an 'old' gearbox and a 'new' gear reduction, and the loss of gearbox work will be massive.

    [Edit - Perhaps this is a better explanation. Let's say the production of a single fixed gear reduction is 90% (or perhaps 99%) simpler than building a gearbox, then the industry will contract by 90% to 99%. M.]


    Or, like their suppliers, the OEMs could just adapt and, for example, switch from manufacturing IC engines in-house to manufacturing battery packs.
    Originally posted by Gloomendoom
    Yes they could, but you are confusing the issue. What you are suggesting is the survival of a company by changing what it does. That's not the same as an industry surviving. For example, let's say Cummins Diesel switches to building battery packs, Cummins may survive, but diesel engine manufacturing hasn't.
    Last edited by Martyn1981; 10-01-2018 at 8:25 AM. Reason: Added an edit
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
    • IanMSpencer
    • By IanMSpencer 10th Jan 18, 8:15 AM
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    IanMSpencer
    Hi, I may be wrong, but I think the latest Leaf, or perhaps the coming 60kWh Leaf is capable of using 210kW chargers, so in the future, taking your 15min example and running with it, it should be possible to put a 50kWh charge in, and driving another 3-4hrs and 200 miles. that sounds very reasonable to me too.
    Originally posted by Martyn1981
    Of course, what needs to be remembered is that fast charging is a Bad Thing for batteries. For an occasional special trip it is ok, but it is not a solution for regular long journeys as it will prematurely kill the battery, even with the careful recharging management. Full charge left lying around, full discharge and fast charging are all issues. A high battery capacity has the advantage of allowing the daily routine to be far less challenging and make it easier to extend battery life, especially if you can work between say 20 to 80% charging. A bigger battery pack also allows better performance without stressing the batteries with a fast discharge. Ludicrous mode in Teslas is a performance mode that kills the battery due to excessive discharge - ok for a very occasional treat or putting Ferraris in their place I guess.

    There was the case where a Tesla owner was very miffed that his Tesla would no longer fast charge as he recharged it like that every time. RTFM was the response I think.
    • Gloomendoom
    • By Gloomendoom 10th Jan 18, 8:27 AM
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    Gloomendoom
    I think you may be missing the point, even if ZF and others stick with gearbox production, then their business will still reduce massively.

    They will go from producing a large and expensive piece of kit, such as a multi gear + reverse manual/automatic gearbox, and replace that with just a very simple gear reduction unit (not really a gear box as it only has one fixed gear).
    Originally posted by Martyn1981
    On the contrary, I think you may be missing my point. To ensure that their business does not reduce massively, ZF are not sticking with gearbox production. They have diversified away from solely producing gearboxes and final drives to also producing integrated electric drive systems.

    A quick glance at the picture I posted or better, a perusal of their website using the link I also posted should convince you that these integrated systems are equally as large and expensive as any conventional gearbox.
    Advice; it rhymes with mice. Advise; it rhymes with wise.
    • AdrianC
    • By AdrianC 10th Jan 18, 8:40 AM
    • 16,066 Posts
    • 14,355 Thanks
    AdrianC
    And I think the point I made above is being ignored. Reality and facts can be so inconvenient to these arguments...

    Transmissions are just one part of ZF's business.
    https://www.zf.com/corporate/en_de/products/further_product_ranges/index.html

    They're not even the entirety of ZF's car business...
    https://www.zf.com/corporate/en_de/products/product_range/cars/cars.html

    ...and cars aren't the entirety of their automotive business...
    https://www.zf.com/corporate/en_de/products/product_range/product_range.html

    Would a complete cessation of their car transmission business, tomorrow, hurt their bottom line? Yes, of course. Would it kill the business? Not even close. Is that complete cessation tomorrow going to happen? Of course it isn't.
    • Gloomendoom
    • By Gloomendoom 10th Jan 18, 8:40 AM
    • 13,444 Posts
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    Gloomendoom
    Yes they could, but you are confusing the issue. What you are suggesting is the survival of a company by changing what it does. That's not the same as an industry surviving. For example, let's say Cummins Diesel switches to building battery packs, Cummins may survive, but diesel engine manufacturing hasn't.
    Originally posted by Martyn1981
    Again, I think you are missing my point... they aren't changing what they do. The company is in business to produce vehicles, that is what they will continue to do.

    The majority of the parts that they use are bought in from outside suppliers, however, some may be made in-house. Jaguar Land Rover, for example has an IC engine production plant. As the demand for IC engines decreases and the demand for batteries increases, the plant could switch from producing IC engines, a key component in current powertrains, to producing battery packs, a key component of EV powertrains. Meanwhile, their core business remains unchanged.
    Advice; it rhymes with mice. Advise; it rhymes with wise.
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 10th Jan 18, 8:43 AM
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    Martyn1981
    Again, I think you are missing my point... they aren't changing what they do. The company is in business to produce vehicles, that is what they will continue to do.
    Originally posted by Gloomendoom
    The issue was gearboxes, and the gearbox industry. You are trying to spin the survival of that industry by pointing to gearbox manufacturers "changing what they do", that is the survival of a company, not an industry.

    If a coal company changes to mining tin, it is not the survival of the coal industry.
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
    • Gloomendoom
    • By Gloomendoom 10th Jan 18, 9:00 AM
    • 13,444 Posts
    • 17,670 Thanks
    Gloomendoom
    The issue was gearboxes, and the gearbox industry. You are trying to spin the survival of that industry by pointing to gearbox manufacturers "changing what they do", that is the survival of a company, not an industry.

    If a coal company changes to mining tin, it is not the survival of the coal industry.
    Originally posted by Martyn1981
    But it is still mining. It still uses most if not all the same workforce, plant and production methods. How many hairs do you want to split?

    In ZFs case, it is merely evolution. They haven't jumped from making gearboxes to baked beans, they are still producing systems that incorporate many of the same components or use the same manufacturing processes that traditional gearboxes do.
    Advice; it rhymes with mice. Advise; it rhymes with wise.
    • Herzlos
    • By Herzlos 10th Jan 18, 9:00 AM
    • 6,298 Posts
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    Herzlos
    For an occasional special trip it is ok, but it is not a solution for regular long journeys as it will prematurely kill the battery, even with the careful recharging management.
    Originally posted by IanMSpencer
    Which fits perfectly with how most people use cars - lots of short trips (shopping, work, socializing), occasional long trips (holidays).
    • IanMSpencer
    • By IanMSpencer 10th Jan 18, 10:51 AM
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    IanMSpencer
    Which fits perfectly with how most people use cars - lots of short trips (shopping, work, socializing), occasional long trips (holidays).
    Originally posted by Herzlos
    Quite, wasn't meaning to be contrary, like the point of larger batteries have significant benefits aside from range (better acceleration without trashing batteries do to excessive discharge rates; being able to operate the battery within its comfort zone and so on, reducing recharge cycles).

    More the point is that it is unhealthy to focus on fast charging as a solution to range, simply as a means to deal with an occasional foray.

    To extend that thinking, it means that rather than needing a massive array of charging, a reasonably small number of fast chargers would be ultimately required to support the exceptions. e.g. if the range of a car is 300 miles, how many people would need to recharge on a journey?

    The only time in the UK I've driven a car much more than 200 miles in a day has been day trips to visit my father in hospital in Devon from the Midlands (about 150 miles, so feasible if there was a charge point available during the visit).

    Even in my worst travelling days, I had a triangle of Sunderland, Cardiff and Kings Lynn, but each side was around 200 miles (I never travelled Sunderland to Cardiff except via home - no point overnighting in a hotel when kids to be seen).

    That of course is one of the advantages of being Midlands based - it's easy to get away from. It would be interesting to consider travel profiles from different centres of population and their likely destinations. You could probably quite quickly identify fast charging hot spots. Obviously Birmingham would be one - who would want to stop there long?
    • Herzlos
    • By Herzlos 10th Jan 18, 12:04 PM
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    Herzlos
    I'm also curious as to whether some regions will look at solar roofs for trickle charging. I think the Leaf has an option that does something indirect.

    But think of, say, an EV in spain with a 100w+ panel taking up most of the roof. It'll take a huge time to recharge the 40kwh battery, but cars spend a lot of time doing nothing.
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 10th Jan 18, 12:44 PM
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    Martyn1981
    But it is still mining. It still uses most if not all the same workforce, plant and production methods. How many hairs do you want to split?
    Originally posted by Gloomendoom
    None, that's why I'm trying to explain this carefully to you.

    The issue was gearbox manufacturing, if ZF make something else, that is a company surviving, not an industry surviving.

    I believe my explanation of a coal mining company switching to tin mining explains it all too. No hairs, none split.

    Perhaps we should start again. Do you think the industry producing single ratio fixed reduction gears, will be as large (in monetary terms) as the current gearbox industry producing large, heavy and expensive multi gear variable devices with reverse gears too?
    Last edited by Martyn1981; 10-01-2018 at 12:53 PM. Reason: spelling
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 10th Jan 18, 12:49 PM
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    Martyn1981

    Even in my worst travelling days, I had a triangle of Sunderland, Cardiff and Kings Lynn, but each side was around 200 miles (I never travelled Sunderland to Cardiff except via home - no point overnighting in a hotel when kids to be seen).
    Originally posted by IanMSpencer
    When in Cardiff, you are welcome to granny charge from my outside socket anytime.

    But joking apart, is there some sort of app that can put you in touch with a house offering something like this?
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 10th Jan 18, 12:52 PM
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    Martyn1981
    I'm also curious as to whether some regions will look at solar roofs for trickle charging. I think the Leaf has an option that does something indirect.

    But think of, say, an EV in spain with a 100w+ panel taking up most of the roof. It'll take a huge time to recharge the 40kwh battery, but cars spend a lot of time doing nothing.
    Originally posted by Herzlos
    Hiya, apologies for the pedantry, but to take up most of a roof is probably more like 4kWp, with current 13% to 18%(ish) efficient panels. In ten years we'll probably have silicon/Perovskite panels in the low 30%, so roof space wise, you'll be able to get twice as much up there.

    Note - in hot sunny conditions that 4kWp array will probably run at about 3kW.
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
    • almillar
    • By almillar 10th Jan 18, 1:04 PM
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    almillar
    Of course, what needs to be remembered is that fast charging is a Bad Thing for batteries
    Experience for me on a personal level, and it looks like manufacturer's level, is that it's not as bad as had been feared.
    Leaf has an option to stop fast charging at 80% to protect the battery.
    Zoe has no such option - charging just slows down near (90%+ the top).
    Soul EV (30kWh) stops at 94%.
    VW invalidate your warranty if you rapid charge 3 times in a row!!

    So there's already some protection built in, or scare tactics in a VW.

    as it will prematurely kill the battery,
    Where are these prematurely killed batteries? Also, when they do arrive, there's a home battery market ready and waiting to re-use them.

    A high battery capacity has the advantage of allowing the daily routine to be far less challenging
    Yes - a 200 mile battery might need to be charged less than half as much as a 100 mile battery - and fewer of those charges will need to be rapid too. There will be proportionately more destination charging (usually slow) and less in-journey charging (usually fast).

    But joking apart, is there some sort of app that can put you in touch with a house offering something like this?
    I think PlugShare allows you to put your own charger on (for many, many people to see!) if you're so inclined.
    Last edited by almillar; 10-01-2018 at 1:06 PM. Reason: update
    • IanMSpencer
    • By IanMSpencer 10th Jan 18, 1:30 PM
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    IanMSpencer
    Where are these prematurely killed batteries? Also, when they do arrive, there's a home battery market ready and waiting to re-use them.
    Originally posted by almillar
    My understanding it is basic battery science and well understood, hence the management of charging. A managed fast charge will do a very small amount of damage each time. With a managed charging system, I understand it will affect the life terms of the number of years it will be able to be used effectively, not a catastrophic failure.

    The simple point is that if someone is depending on fast charging station availability to support a usage profile, they need to factor in that they could come unstuck if they over-do it, that the charge management system might decide that they are not allowed to charge at the rates they assumed when they considered it practical. It comes down to the fast charging being a useful enabler for occasional events, but not appropriate for a daily usage profile (which obviously is extreme).

    If you have a Tesla and it's battery system is marked as degraded but is otherwise in perfect condition, what does that do to it's secondhand value?
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