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  • FIRST POST
    • Jonamora
    • By Jonamora 24th Jan 17, 5:11 PM
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    Jonamora
    Electric cars
    • #1
    • 24th Jan 17, 5:11 PM
    Electric cars 24th Jan 17 at 5:11 PM
    Just wanted people's opinions on buying an electric car?

    Before long all cars will be electric and therfore is it best to sell petrol car at full value and invest in electric car.

    I don't want to start a new finance deals for 4 years and be complete but then left with and cat nobody wants or has resale value because all are electric.....thoughts

    Jonathan
Page 35
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 8th Jan 18, 4:05 PM
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    Martyn1981
    I might be rather smug when I watched it crash on the first bend. There is a reason Teslas are speed limited... their chassis aren't as advanced as their powertrain.
    Originally posted by Gloomendoom
    Why would it crash on a bend? I thought they had a lower centre of gravity, intelligent braking, and torque steer from multiple motors?


    Since when has a $100k (£74k?) car been a "family" saloon? I was thinking of more affordable offerings from VW, Nissan and Renault.
    Originally posted by Gloomendoom
    It's not a sportscar design, it's a family saloon car. In fact the S is outselling the competitors with ICE's [edit - in the price range. M.]. Plus I did compare it too a $250k Ferrari. If you want to compare the Model 3 then I suppose the BMW M3 springs to mind, or perhaps the Porsche Boxer. Owners of those cars aren't (I'm sure) going to like having to avoid 'playing' with family EV's.

    Do you remember the backlash against Porsche when their 'cheap' 924 couldn't beat 80's hot hatches? If the cars aren't seen to be above and beyond run of the mill cars, then they lose a lot of their perceived value.

    Tesla have gone for the throat of the hypercar market with their Roadster2, since it'll outperform cars that cost 10x as much (at least 4x as much) ...... but still have decent luggage space!

    I find this fascinating, but also crazy given the speed of change.

    Slight digression, but specialist engine manufacturers like Cummins must be very worried about how they compete against mass produced motors that are simply multiplied as per the vehicles needs.
    Last edited by Martyn1981; 08-01-2018 at 4:15 PM. Reason: Added an edit
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    • NigeWick
    • By NigeWick 9th Jan 18, 9:20 AM
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    NigeWick
    That tax disparity can't continue, though.
    Originally posted by AdrianC
    No problem for now. Just double or treble the tax on buying ICE vehicles and their fuel.

    Once there are as many EVs as ICE machines on our roads, then taxes will have to rise somewhere. VAT on luxury goods like booze, TVs, radios, music players? I am sure government will think of something.
    The mind of the bigot is like the pupil of the eye; the more light you pour upon it, the more it will contract.
    Oliver Wendell Holmes
    • Gloomendoom
    • By Gloomendoom 9th Jan 18, 9:26 AM
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    Gloomendoom
    No problem for now. Just double or treble the tax on buying ICE vehicles and their fuel.

    Once there are as many EVs as ICE machines on our roads, then taxes will have to rise somewhere. VAT on luxury goods like booze, TVs, radios, music players? I am sure government will think of something.
    Originally posted by NigeWick
    It will probably carry on taxing vehicles, both ICE and EV, perhaps even more highly than it does already.

    The money to make the necessary improvements to the electricity distribution infrastructure will have to come from somewhere.
    Advice; it rhymes with mice. Advise; it rhymes with wise.
    • AnotherJoe
    • By AnotherJoe 9th Jan 18, 11:05 AM
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    AnotherJoe

    Slight digression, but specialist engine manufacturers like Cummins must be very worried about how they compete against mass produced motors that are simply multiplied as per the vehicles needs.
    Originally posted by Martyn1981
    Not just them. I read an article the other day, a major spark plug manufacture was branching out into wholly different fields, using its expertise in ceramic technology for new purposes, because they could forsee that in about ten years time that business was going to massively decline.

    Who else? Companies that make gearboxes? Toast.
    Brake manufacturers? Business decline by 75% at least.
    Turbo manufacturers? Bye.
    Fuel injectors? Bye.
    Exhaust systems? Massive decline just to replacements.
    People who make the petrol pumps? Already in decline anyway, that will speed up.

    All those little garages that do oil changes, spark plugs, general servicing? Massive decline. Think ostlers in 1900.
    Specialist engine tuners and parts for the petrol heads?
    Pointless when a family saloon burns off your pride and joy.

    Big chains like Kwik Fit? Tyres only. Is that even a sustainable business in that case?
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 9th Jan 18, 11:24 AM
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    Martyn1981
    Not just them. I read an article the other day, a major spark plug manufacture was branching out into wholly different fields, using its expertise in ceramic technology for new purposes, because they could forsee that in about ten years time that business was going to massively decline.

    Who else? Companies that make gearboxes? Toast.
    Brake manufacturers? Business decline by 75% at least.
    Turbo manufacturers? Bye.
    Fuel injectors? Bye.
    Exhaust systems? Massive decline just to replacements.
    People who make the petrol pumps? Already in decline anyway, that will speed up.

    All those little garages that do oil changes, spark plugs, general servicing? Massive decline. Think ostlers in 1900.
    Specialist engine tuners and parts for the petrol heads?
    Pointless when a family saloon burns off your pride and joy.

    Big chains like Kwik Fit? Tyres only. Is that even a sustainable business in that case?
    Originally posted by AnotherJoe
    Blimey, yes, I hadn't thought how big the fallout would be, though I did read the article about spark plugs, I think it was the biggest company, NGK.

    I was watching a financial news article yesterday from the States discussing Tesla, and they pointed out that they already have a large distribution of sales sites, but explained that EV's do not suit the 'classic dealership' model, as they need the servicing, maintenance etc to be viable, and this won't happen with EV's.

    I may be wrong, but I suspect that the GM Bolt is just a compliance car that's gotten out of hand. GM's dealerships don't want EV's.

    In Europe the Bolt (Ampera-E) may be a dead duck, as GM seems to be trying to avoid supplying them. Under the sale of Opel/Vauxhall, they have to supply new cars, and parts whilst the Bolt is current in the US, so they recently put the price up by about €7,000 apparently to discourage orders.

    I think the old established car companies need to think about their futures. In large/old markets just a 10% downturn in sales can wreak havoc. A 10% drop in oil demand during the recession, and a 10% increase in supply more recently have both led to price crashes and loss of profitability.
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

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    • Gloomendoom
    • By Gloomendoom 9th Jan 18, 11:33 AM
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    Gloomendoom
    Blimey, yes, I hadn't thought how big the fallout would be, though I did read the article about spark plugs, I think it was the biggest company, NGK..
    Originally posted by Martyn1981
    The fallout will be huge and it won't be restricted to those currently directly involved in the motor industry either. The loss of rural petrol stations, already in decline, will probably also mean the loss of many local shops too.

    I suppose the petrol pumps could be replaced with fast chargers for passing business or local people who haven't the time to wait for their low power home chargers to do the job.
    Last edited by Gloomendoom; 09-01-2018 at 11:36 AM.
    Advice; it rhymes with mice. Advise; it rhymes with wise.
    • Gloomendoom
    • By Gloomendoom 9th Jan 18, 11:41 AM
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    Gloomendoom
    Who else? Companies that make gearboxes? Toast.
    Originally posted by AnotherJoe
    You mean like ZF?

    Intelligent electric drive solutions

    Advice; it rhymes with mice. Advise; it rhymes with wise.
    • almillar
    • By almillar 9th Jan 18, 1:12 PM
    • 7,133 Posts
    • 2,877 Thanks
    almillar
    In a technological age, it would be fairly straight-forward to put in some tamper-proof metering on car to charge per mile or per unit as preferred.
    Both those suggestions (meter in home, meter on car) have costs involved that someone would have to pay. Whilst EVs are being touted as cheaper to run than ICE, they'll do nothing. After that, I think gov might just have to put up with less income from fuel duty.


    175 miles, 3.5hrs each way. If you can't go that long without a pee, you probably ought to be seeing your doctor.
    We've discussed this before, but that's a long time to be sat in a car. I reckon most people would want a break. Sticking to the speed limit, I reckon I could do that with one fast charge (30 mins, pee and a coffee) half way each time, if there was destination charging.
    You shouldn't be driving tired or dehydrated of course.

    Why would it crash on a bend? I thought they had a lower centre of gravity, intelligent braking, and torque steer from multiple motors?
    Well it won't crash but it won't get round corners as fast. As I said, a Ferrari would be better on a track because it's LIGHTER. It's also a sports car, not a family saloon, but no matter where the weight is, it still needs to be sped up, slowed down, and turned, and for the moment, the argument is range vs weight.

    I may be wrong, but I suspect that the GM Bolt is just a compliance car that's gotten out of hand. GM's dealerships don't want EV's.
    I thought they were having trouble getting them built, and making a loss on them, so that figures...

    The loss of rural petrol stations, already in decline, will probably also mean the loss of many local shops too.
    No. All they need to do to retain, or rather get back, my business, is be well located, install a rapid charger, and sell me nice coffee. They'll make a profit from the coffee and anything else I buy, whilst I charge. Remember, they couldn't be profitable on petrol alone.

    Who else? Companies that make gearboxes? Toast.
    Change that word to transmissions, and they'll be fine. Power still needs to get from motor to wheel.
    • Herzlos
    • By Herzlos 9th Jan 18, 2:01 PM
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    Herzlos
    175 miles, 3.5hrs each way. If you can't go that long without a pee, you probably ought to be seeing your doctor.
    Originally posted by AdrianC
    Aim to stop every two hours or so
    https://www.theaa.com/driving-advice/safety/tired-drivers

    A minimum break of at least 15 minutes after every two hours of driving is recommended
    https://www.rospa.com/road-safety/advice/drivers/fatigue/policy-statements/

    All of the 'official' advice is to try and stop every 2 hours for a break. Professional drivers need to stop every 4 (and a half?) hours, too.
    Some people may try and push it and claim to be fine with longer uninterrupted but the reality is a 3.5 hour range will adversely affect almost no-one. For those that it does, then they'll either need to change how they do things, or use an ICE/range extender until the EV range meets their needs.
    Last edited by Herzlos; 09-01-2018 at 2:04 PM.
    • Gloomendoom
    • By Gloomendoom 9th Jan 18, 2:04 PM
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    Gloomendoom
    I've had petrol cars that needed re-fuelled every ~200 miles and that never gave me any real problems.
    Originally posted by Herzlos
    How long did it take to fill up?
    Advice; it rhymes with mice. Advise; it rhymes with wise.
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 9th Jan 18, 2:42 PM
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    Martyn1981
    Who else? Companies that make gearboxes? Toast.
    Change that word to transmissions, and they'll be fine. Power still needs to get from motor to wheel.
    Originally posted by almillar
    I'm not sure about that. Building a variable 5, 6+ speed gearbox with reverse, or an 8 speed+ automatic is a big complicated job, and one that favours specialist companies. But a single speed fixed transmission without reverse is peanuts in comparison, and possibly the sort of job that'll get taken in house.
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    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
    • David Aston
    • By David Aston 9th Jan 18, 2:42 PM
    • 754 Posts
    • 472 Thanks
    David Aston
    I must admit that since I have noticed a Tesla X100 is it, parked outside Aldi on a couple of occasions, I have been completely sold. Rather expensive, and possibly not that straightforward to get charged, or serviced in the UK I suppose. A 0 to 60 of 2.9 does seem like overkill. My mate has just said to me, don't I remember trolley buses!
    I certainly don't remember being pinned to my seat as they accelerated away!
    • Gloomendoom
    • By Gloomendoom 9th Jan 18, 4:14 PM
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    Gloomendoom
    But a single speed fixed transmission without reverse is peanuts in comparison, and possibly the sort of job that'll get taken in house.
    Originally posted by Martyn1981
    See post #689
    Advice; it rhymes with mice. Advise; it rhymes with wise.
    • zeupater
    • By zeupater 9th Jan 18, 5:03 PM
    • 3,920 Posts
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    zeupater
    Originally posted by Gloomendoom
    Hi

    Isn't that effectively a cutaway of a complete motor with a simplified drive mechanics assembly, complete with coolant & electronics all contained in one modular assembly? ... if so, I can't really see that being an issue anywhere ...

    The automotive OEMs tend to hate manufacturing operations as they act as costly bottlenecks to restrict their sales ... - they're continually increasing modularity & therefore effectively outsourcing assembly operations to improve in-plant productivity, so we're potentially looking at the consolidation of power-train & drive-train operations under one heading, so something's got to give .. If standard units become available off the shelf with associated economies-of scale driving supply costs down, then the OEMs will close down their engine plants, else (politically driven) decisions will be taken to retain ownership of power-train & Martyn's thoughts will probably be correct .... only time will tell.

    Most OEMs would, if possible, increase modularity to the point where they did little else than fit their badge, even then they'd prefer to sub-contract that too ... (as a number already do!)

    HTH
    Z
    "We are what we repeatedly do, excellence then is not an act, but a habit. " ...... Aristotle
    • IanMSpencer
    • By IanMSpencer 9th Jan 18, 5:07 PM
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    IanMSpencer
    I'm not sure about that. Building a variable 5, 6+ speed gearbox with reverse, or an 8 speed+ automatic is a big complicated job, and one that favours specialist companies. But a single speed fixed transmission without reverse is peanuts in comparison, and possibly the sort of job that'll get taken in house.
    Originally posted by Martyn1981
    A car is full of trivial to design and manufacture things - these days you rely on specialist companies even if you could DIY. No point working up your own expertise, especially in a mature technology like electric motors. On the other hand, for a company that recognises that its core product is disappearing under its feet, it has to make an attempt to either move with the technology, diversify or simply move its money into other technologies.

    Kodak tried to go with its market, it failed.

    TI (Tube Investments) was a Midlands metal bashing blue chip company that bailed on its core products (Raleigh bikes, Russel Hobbs, Creda, even the steel works) and went into other stuff and eventually vanished after various mergers and acquisitions - I think the shareholders came out OK.

    GEC, later Marconi, tried to move from low profit steady commodity goods in an ill-thought out switch into telecoms and screwed the company in no time (burning a billion pound cash mountain in the process).

    For car makers to switch to EV is probably no big deal - their core product is the construction of a heap of components into a vehicle and not much really changes - I doubt that the Dresden VW glass house had much of a refit to build the eGolfs instead of the Phaetons, the logistics is pretty much the same.

    The only significant business impact is engine manufacture where the big firms still saw that as a profitable specialism (JLR killed the X-Type because it made more profit for Ford selling its engine and other components than JLR). I would expect the manufacturers to spin out and sell off engine manufacturing and we'll see a consolidation into specialised engine manufacture over the next decade or two, just as we have seen companies decide that gearboxes are commodities. To be fair, it's already happening, there has long been an element of engine sharing, it'll just accelerate.
    • silverwhistle
    • By silverwhistle 9th Jan 18, 5:29 PM
    • 1,683 Posts
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    silverwhistle
    But I really cannot be bothered with the endless circular 'debate' these threads always end in.
    Originally posted by gzoom
    The difference from a few years ago is that there are many posters who have practical experience. I can appreciate the plaintiff cry of "it wouldn't suit me because I have a big bladder" [or whatever..], but it is far more interesting to hear the issues from the point of people who are doing it. Thanks to you and to others: I'll be interested to hear of your experience in France.

    I'm off to Italy in my 2009 hatchback in a couple of weeks for a couple of weeks skiing, if we get there - currently level 4/5 avalanche danger, which in my experience is unprecedented. I'll keep an eye open for chargers, but it'll be a long time before I can afford an electric vehicle (a S/H Leaf, I would imagine), let alone one which can do that journey!

    I keep thinking there must be an opportunity for car hire businesses near the channel ports for EV owners going on long trips, but then the idea probably has a limited lifespan.

    As others have pointed out businesses will have to diversify. I was chatting in my club bar the other day to the owner of a village local independent garage, and he had no plans for dealing with electric. I suspect he'll be retired before the issue becomes critical.
    • AdrianC
    • By AdrianC 9th Jan 18, 5:38 PM
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    AdrianC
    Kodak tried to go with its market, it failed.
    Originally posted by IanMSpencer
    Eastman Kodak certainly didn't do well out of the move to digital imaging, but they're still a multi-billion NYSE listed company.

    TI (Tube Investments) was a Midlands metal bashing blue chip company that bailed on its core products (Raleigh bikes, Russel Hobbs, Creda, even the steel works) and went into other stuff and eventually vanished after various mergers and acquisitions - I think the shareholders came out OK.
    TI was bought by Smiths Group in 2000. Smiths are still part of the FTSE100.

    GEC, later Marconi, tried to move from low profit steady commodity goods in an ill-thought out switch into telecoms and screwed the company in no time (burning a billion pound cash mountain in the process).
    Guglielmo Marconi's original 1897 company was bought by GEC in 1968. The defence arm merged with British Aerospace in 1999 to form BAE systems (FTSE100), while the telecomms business was floated as Marconi plc, which was bought by Ericsson in 2005.

    The only significant business impact is engine manufacture where the big firms still saw that as a profitable specialism (JLR killed the X-Type because it made more profit for Ford selling its engine and other components than JLR).
    The X-type had been in production for 8 years by the time it was discontinued in 2009, a year after Ford sold Jaguar to Tata. JLR continued to use the same Puma diesel in the Defender until the end of production in 2016, and still use v6 and v8 Ford diesels in the upper-end models.

    ZF aren't just automotive engineering - they're in the rail, marine and aviation industries, too, having started by producing gears for Zeppelins - hence the Z...
    Most of the big tier-1 automotive engineering suppliers are simply divisions of much larger organisations.
    • IanMSpencer
    • By IanMSpencer 9th Jan 18, 6:14 PM
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    IanMSpencer
    I'm not sure what point you are trying to make, Mr C. I was simply observing that there are different strategies for companies to deal with their markets disappearing underneath them, each of those at some time made a strategic choice on how to deal with weaknesses in their core business: you can follow the transformation that your market takes into new and unfamiliar products; or you move out entirely and try something else; or you stay put and try and manage in a declining market. There are companies who have succeeded and failed with any of those strategies.

    The core car manufacturing business is fairly secure - the move to EV does not change the need for big, safe metal boxes with rubber at the corner. Aside from engine manufacture, most companies farm out component manufacture to third parties, whether they are large or small. The car companies can weather the storm of moving out of engine manufacture, electric engines aren't exciting enough engineering to treat as anything but commodity, they can always invest in or take over appropriate companies if they are interested.
    • AdrianC
    • By AdrianC 9th Jan 18, 6:30 PM
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    AdrianC
    I'm not sure what point you are trying to make
    Originally posted by IanMSpencer
    I'm merely correcting and clarifying the statements you made about the various companies you introduced to demonstrate your points.

    I'm sure we'd all prefer facts raised to be complete and accurate, wouldn't we?
    • Herzlos
    • By Herzlos 9th Jan 18, 8:08 PM
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    Herzlos
    How long did it take to fill up?
    Originally posted by Gloomendoom
    It's almost always going to take longer to recharge than to fill a fuel tank (unless the queue to pay is terrible), and people will still claim EV's are no use because they drive for 4 hours, stop for 2 minutes to refuel and drive another 4 hours, or whatever.

    The reason EV's aren't as big a deal is that for everyone else, stopping every 2 hours or so and having a wander/pee/coffee, the car is sitting charging without any need for you to be standing beside it. Say you stop every 2 hours on a long motorway trek - 140 miles. 40kw Leaf 2.zero has a range of 235 miles, so you're potentially only charging it half way which may only take about 15 minutes. You can easily spent 15 minutes in a service station if there are a few of you. With 2 kids we're likely to be stopping at least every 2 hours.

    Give it another generation (of car) and we could be seeing EV's with ranges in the 400+ mile range, when you'll only need to stop to charge for 30ish minutes every 5.5 hours. That still won't suit some people, but the number of people for whom there's a tangible reason an EV doesn't suit will diminish rapidly with each generation.

    The big problem is peak demand - there have already been horror stories about queues to get to chargers on bank holiday weekends. So there's a lot of infrastructure required before they really take off.
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