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  • FIRST POST
    • Raspberry Queen
    • By Raspberry Queen 6th Dec 16, 7:36 PM
    • 40Posts
    • 56Thanks
    Raspberry Queen
    Don't bother with Free Postcode Lottery
    • #1
    • 6th Dec 16, 7:36 PM
    Don't bother with Free Postcode Lottery 6th Dec 16 at 7:36 PM
    Your chances of winning are very small.

    Number of postcodes in the UK: 1,750,871 x 31.26% of postcodes registered =
    547322 people competing with you to win. In fact, it is higher than this, as there are often several people registered with each postcode. (They no longer give statistics for how many individuals are signed up to FPL, which is what you really need to work out your tiny chances of winning.)

    If you are the only person registered with your postcode, and there are two chances to win big each day, you have a maximum of a 1 in 273661 chance of winning big each day (the chances are actually much less, given that more than one person is usually registered to each postcode).

    273661 / 365.25 = a one in 749.243 chance of winning per year.

    In other words, it would take the average player more than 749 years to win a decent amount on the free postcode lottery. And you may never win it at all!

    The statistics for if you include the smaller chances to win (£10-£20+) are as follows. I'm not including the weekly Quidco draw as it would make it too complicated, the £5 flash ad draws as I don't quite know how they work, or the two bonus draws as it takes some time to build up enough bonus to unlock them). I'm counting the twice-daily stackpots as 10 chances to win (as there seems to be an average of about 5 spaces on the stack each time). That is approximately 14 chances to win each day.

    547322 / 14 = 39094 (to the nearest whole number). So there is a maximum of 1 in 39094 chance to win each day. Divided by 365.25, that makes the yearly chance of winning 1 in 107.035.

    In other words, it would take the average player (who is the only person registered at their postcode) more than 107 years to win something, even just a little prize.

    I have decided to quit, and spend the time checking FPL doing something else instead. I am thinking of trying VoxPopMe when I set my new phone up. It is an app that pays you £0.25 for short review videos.

    It took me about 4 minutes or more each day to check the results; if I spent 4 minutes every day, that's over 24 hours per year. If I instead spent 4 minutes every day making a VoxPopMe video, that would have earned me £91.25 over the year. In 2 years, I would be on £182.50 - more than you win in the survey draw, and about 747 years quicker than the average time it would take to win it on FPL!
Page 1
    • SailorSam
    • By SailorSam 6th Dec 16, 7:40 PM
    • 21,190 Posts
    • 36,782 Thanks
    SailorSam
    • #2
    • 6th Dec 16, 7:40 PM
    • #2
    • 6th Dec 16, 7:40 PM
    It must have taken you more than 4 minutes to write all that.
    Think of all the money you may have earned doing something else.
    Liverpool is one of the wonders of Britain,
    What it may grow to in time, I know not what.

    Daniel Defoe: 1725.
    • Raspberry Queen
    • By Raspberry Queen 6th Dec 16, 7:46 PM
    • 40 Posts
    • 56 Thanks
    Raspberry Queen
    • #3
    • 6th Dec 16, 7:46 PM
    • #3
    • 6th Dec 16, 7:46 PM
    Lol

    It did, but I was dithering over whether to leave and wanted to put the statistics up, so that other people can make the decision quickly. I also don't have any ways to make pennies in minutes yet either

    ETA - I knew someone would say this!
    • Wizzbang
    • By Wizzbang 6th Dec 16, 8:27 PM
    • 4,039 Posts
    • 8,797 Thanks
    Wizzbang
    • #4
    • 6th Dec 16, 8:27 PM
    • #4
    • 6th Dec 16, 8:27 PM
    Thank you, I appreciate this. I've been signed up for 2 years now and never won a penny. I was starting to wonder the same - and you have confirmed it's not worth it. I will drop it much like Clixsense, mysurvey and other survey companies that pay a pittance.
    Minimalist
    Extra income since 01/11/12 £33,602.53
    (Not inc coupons, yellow stickies, bank interest or loyalty rewards because I have better things to do than catalogue everything!) Swagbucks £2,240
    • harrys nan
    • By harrys nan 7th Dec 16, 6:11 PM
    • 1,433 Posts
    • 2,917 Thanks
    harrys nan
    • #5
    • 7th Dec 16, 6:11 PM
    • #5
    • 7th Dec 16, 6:11 PM
    So the odds are very high, so what? It's free doesn't cost me anything .
    apart from about 3/4 mins of my day checking the results.
    I may never win, but I can't win the lottery either and that cost me if I want to play.
    Treat other's how you like to be treated.

    Harry born 23/09/2008
    New baby grandson, Louie born 28/06/2012,
    Proud nanny to two beautiful boys
    • Raspberry Queen
    • By Raspberry Queen 7th Dec 16, 6:17 PM
    • 40 Posts
    • 56 Thanks
    Raspberry Queen
    • #6
    • 7th Dec 16, 6:17 PM
    • #6
    • 7th Dec 16, 6:17 PM
    The difference with the lottery is that you don't have to check it every single day, it's much less time consuming, and the potential rewards are life-changing.
    • takman
    • By takman 8th Dec 16, 12:36 AM
    • 2,623 Posts
    • 2,178 Thanks
    takman
    • #7
    • 8th Dec 16, 12:36 AM
    • #7
    • 8th Dec 16, 12:36 AM
    It really takes no time at all to check the results. I get the email daily in my inbox which I read on my phone, clicking the email, clicking the link looking at the postcode and then closing the Webpage takes at most 10 seconds.

    So why wouldn't you spend 10 seconds doing that considering your happy to spend 4 minutes a day to make £91.25 a year, that works out at 25p for those 4 minutes. That is only £3.75 an hour, so if your happy working for such a small amount of money it would be hypocritical to then say postcode lottery is a waste of time.
    • jadex
    • By jadex 8th Dec 16, 1:15 AM
    • 651 Posts
    • 276 Thanks
    jadex
    • #8
    • 8th Dec 16, 1:15 AM
    • #8
    • 8th Dec 16, 1:15 AM
    It really takes no time at all to check the results. I get the email daily in my inbox which I read on my phone, clicking the email, clicking the link looking at the postcode and then closing the Webpage takes at most 10 seconds.
    Originally posted by takman
    so you don't check survey draw, video draw, stackpot and bonus draw then? if you do then it is more than 10 secs
    • duchy
    • By duchy 8th Dec 16, 1:22 AM
    • 17,976 Posts
    • 45,611 Thanks
    duchy
    • #9
    • 8th Dec 16, 1:22 AM
    • #9
    • 8th Dec 16, 1:22 AM
    And your point is ?

    Some people have time for competitions , others don't and most fall somewhere in between. Just because someone's time management is different to yours doesn't make them wrong .
    I Would Rather Climb A Mountain Than Crawl Into A Hole

    Apparently having a "Quirky and Hipster" wedding
    • badmemory
    • By badmemory 8th Dec 16, 2:24 AM
    • 680 Posts
    • 667 Thanks
    badmemory
    If you don't think it is worth it don't do it. Whilst you won't improve the odds for the rest of us you will improve the prize values for those who do win.

    I expect there are quite a few DFWs who do it, who also do surveys that they get screened out of at the last moment, not much difference really. It is all down to whether you feel it is worth the bother.
    • takman
    • By takman 8th Dec 16, 9:55 AM
    • 2,623 Posts
    • 2,178 Thanks
    takman
    so you don't check survey draw, video draw, stackpot and bonus draw then? if you do then it is more than 10 secs
    Originally posted by jadex
    Sometime I do click through the buttons and that only takes a few seconds more, but I've never watched the video because I've never seen one that interests me.

    So for the people who like to enter competitions and do surveys then it is definitely worth doing even if the odds of winning are low. For the people who have no intertest in it then they won't be doing it anyway. So although knowing the odds of winning is always interesting I don't think it should really influence someone to stop taking part in a free prize draw if they are doing it already.
    • Lrimas
    • By Lrimas 8th Dec 16, 2:02 PM
    • 121 Posts
    • 160 Thanks
    Lrimas
    While it will take 750 years to win at least once if the events are related (in other words, if they remove the postcodes that win decreasing the amount of postcodes in the pool), it is just a number in unrelated events. The probability that you will win big once in 750 years is 63%. After 2000 years you will have a 93% chance of winning at least once. The chance of winning it once in your lifetime (in 80 years) is just 10%. This is ignoring the fact that more people are signing on each day decreasing the chance even more.

    If I use your example and simplify it drastically to: If you flip a coin once a day for two days, what is the chance that you will get heads at least once.

    The coin has a 1/2 chance of landing on heads. So (I'm using your calculations here) after two days you have 2 / 2 = a one in 1 chance of winning on the second day.

    This is simply not true as you only have a 75% chance of winning at least once over the two days. The problem is that the two events are unrelated. In other words, the chance of you winning it the second day is not guaranteed if you don't win it the first day, it is still just a 50% chance.

    So... the chance of something happening at least once in a sequence of unrelated events is: 1-(the probility of it not happening)^(the amount of times tried)

    So if I use the coin flip example, the chance of it happening at least once over two days: 1-(1-0.5)^2 = 0.75
    The chance of it happening at least once over 5 days: 1-(1-0.5)^5= 0.97

    If I go back to your example, the chance that it will happen once a year is:
    1-(1-1/273661)^365 = 0.13329% (this is actually fairly close to the 0.1333% that you got, but that's just because it is so small).

    The chance of it happening once in 750 years is: 1-(1-1/273661)^(365*750)

    (Sorry, I've been doing way too many matched betting casino offers recently )
    Last edited by Lrimas; 10-12-2016 at 8:50 AM.
    • tiggs9693
    • By tiggs9693 13th Sep 17, 9:54 AM
    • 3 Posts
    • 17 Thanks
    tiggs9693
    Fpl
    For free, I think its worth a shot. Been playing for over 3 years. Won£500 once . that may not be life changing, but for free its a very welcome bonus! It does take a few mins but it doesn't cost- for me, personally, something for nothing is great. Each to their own.
    • mikep22
    • By mikep22 13th Sep 17, 10:08 AM
    • 188 Posts
    • 429 Thanks
    mikep22
    OK so Im not reading all this and I dont partake in this competition.

    My outlook with things like this is if it is free then taking a couple of minutes out of your day (or week, depending on how frequent it is) - is no big deal really. Check it while watching a swagbuck video or something.

    Not sure what your point is about the chances of winning, of course its small, the competition is free. If it wasnt like that then it probably wouldnt be free.

    Its not like these guys owe you anything....
    Last edited by mikep22; 13-09-2017 at 10:12 AM.
    Debt: May 15: £17335 Jul 16: £13874 Jan 17: £11,606
    • droopsnoot
    • By droopsnoot 13th Sep 17, 11:46 AM
    • 1,059 Posts
    • 667 Thanks
    droopsnoot
    The difference with the lottery is that you don't have to check it every single day, it's much less time consuming, and the potential rewards are life-changing.
    Originally posted by Raspberry Queen
    It also costs money and, if you think the odds against winning the Free Postcode Lottery are high, you should calculate the odds against winning a life-changing amount on the national lottery.


    To each their own - I used to do the lottery, and stopped when they hiked the price up. I got a few small wins, nothing over about £70, and nowhere near what I'd spent in ticket costs. I just don't do any of them now.
    • Tammykitty
    • By Tammykitty 13th Sep 17, 11:53 AM
    • 506 Posts
    • 1,070 Thanks
    Tammykitty
    Just took me 1 min to check all draws (Except quidco etc)
    Weight Loss Challenge
    Start: 10th September 2016 - 49lbs to lose.
    Progress - 22/49 (3/12/16)

    Restarted 8/05/17 - 41lbs to lose (Managed to put 1 stone on in 4 months!) Progress 6/41 (13/05/17)
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