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  • FIRST POST
    • Sinbad
    • By Sinbad 9th Oct 16, 8:01 PM
    • 79Posts
    • 1Thanks
    Sinbad
    BT share price woes
    • #1
    • 9th Oct 16, 8:01 PM
    BT share price woes 9th Oct 16 at 8:01 PM
    I have a quantity of BT shares and since they peaked at about 496p in March this year, they have continued to head south.


    When they recently fell to 372p (a 25% fall on the 496p figure) I sold half my holding.


    With Friday’s closing share price of 367p, I’m thinking of selling the lot to halt further losses.


    Curious as to thoughts out there as to where the pricing is heading, especially with Q2 results due on the 27th of this month.
Page 1
    • bigfreddiel
    • By bigfreddiel 9th Oct 16, 8:40 PM
    • 4,071 Posts
    • 1,866 Thanks
    bigfreddiel
    • #2
    • 9th Oct 16, 8:40 PM
    • #2
    • 9th Oct 16, 8:40 PM
    You only make a loss when you actually sell!

    You really should be buying!.

    Will you start buying them back when they start going up?


    How large a part of your portfolio are they?

    Cheers fj
    • Pincher
    • By Pincher 9th Oct 16, 8:42 PM
    • 5,859 Posts
    • 2,143 Thanks
    Pincher
    • #3
    • 9th Oct 16, 8:42 PM
    • #3
    • 9th Oct 16, 8:42 PM
    Catch a falling razor, eh?

    I bought 12,000 shares at £3.683.

    At 14p dividend per share, that's 3.8% on £3.683.

    If the progressive dividend policy continues, and we get 15.5p dividend next year, that is 4.2% return.

    I have quite a chunk in NS&I making 1%, and £50k in Premium Bond making 1.25%. Guess what, I used up the £1,000 Savings Allowance, what with Regular Savers and such, so the interest I make at 1% will pay 20% TAX!

    In contrast, I (and so do you) have £5,000 dividend allowance, and then you only pay 7.5% basic rate.

    Conclusion
    =======

    3.8% and 7.5% tax looks bl00dy good to me,
    versus 1% and then 20% tax.


    Also, if it drifts back up to £3.90, it's a 5% quickie.
    What happens if you push this button?
    • grey gym sock
    • By grey gym sock 9th Oct 16, 8:45 PM
    • 3,834 Posts
    • 3,233 Thanks
    grey gym sock
    • #4
    • 9th Oct 16, 8:45 PM
    • #4
    • 9th Oct 16, 8:45 PM
    it's not that big a fall, for an individual company share. if you're not comfortable with it, perhaps you should stick to collective investments in shares?

    i've held BT shares since 2008, and not planning to sell now. i do wonder a bit about the recent EE acquisition, on the grounds that acquisitions generally often go badly.
    • bigfreddiel
    • By bigfreddiel 9th Oct 16, 8:48 PM
    • 4,071 Posts
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    bigfreddiel
    • #5
    • 9th Oct 16, 8:48 PM
    • #5
    • 9th Oct 16, 8:48 PM
    As pincher described, divis are eps usually in p. That means each share pays a certain amount in pence, not a percentage.

    So obviously as the share price falls the divi stays the same thus the yield gets bigger. Simples!

    fj
    • Linton
    • By Linton 9th Oct 16, 8:48 PM
    • 6,955 Posts
    • 6,548 Thanks
    Linton
    • #6
    • 9th Oct 16, 8:48 PM
    • #6
    • 9th Oct 16, 8:48 PM
    BT is a very large company with a strong position in its market. Why were you holding it in March at 496p? Has the long term outlook changed in 6 months? Perhaps you should have been thinking of buying more at a relatively cheap price rather than selling the shares you hold. Buying high and selling low is a guaranteed one way street to losing your money.

    Holding individual shares is a very high risk strategy unless you have enough money to own 15 at the absolute minimum so that falls in one dont spook you by significantly reducing the value of your total portfolio.

    I have no idea where the price is heading - neither does anyone else. If people knew the price would already be there.
    • tg99
    • By tg99 9th Oct 16, 8:51 PM
    • 404 Posts
    • 183 Thanks
    tg99
    • #7
    • 9th Oct 16, 8:51 PM
    • #7
    • 9th Oct 16, 8:51 PM
    As pincher described, divis are eps usually in p. That means each share pays a certain amount in pence, not a percentage.

    So obviously as the share price falls the divi stays the same thus the yield gets bigger. Simples!

    fj
    Originally posted by bigfreddiel
    Not quite so simples if the dividend is cut though (the anticipation of which might be part of the reason a share price is falling though am not taking specifically about BT here).
    • Pincher
    • By Pincher 9th Oct 16, 9:34 PM
    • 5,859 Posts
    • 2,143 Thanks
    Pincher
    • #8
    • 9th Oct 16, 9:34 PM
    • #8
    • 9th Oct 16, 9:34 PM
    Check out the Dividend Cover.

    Earnings of 33.2p, and a dividend of 14p

    33.2p / 14p = 2.37, the dividend cover.

    So they made 33.2p, but only paid out 14p.

    BT "intends" to pay more dividend every year.


    In contrast, RDSB (Royal Dutch Shell B) made 20.19p, but paid out £1.26, making the Dividend cover 0.16. Did the institutional investors gang rape the board of directors? Pay up or red hot poker time?

    BT is far more likely to carry on paying dividend than RDSB, obviously.
    What happens if you push this button?
    • Sinbad
    • By Sinbad 9th Oct 16, 9:48 PM
    • 79 Posts
    • 1 Thanks
    Sinbad
    • #9
    • 9th Oct 16, 9:48 PM
    • #9
    • 9th Oct 16, 9:48 PM

    How large a part of your portfolio are they?
    Originally posted by bigfreddiel
    Just under 10% of my portfolio. Apart from a 10% holding in Lloyds (that’s another story!), the rest of my portfolio is spread around various UK and Global funds

    Why were you holding it in March at 496p?
    Originally posted by Linton
    I was too greedy; I was planning to offload some at 500p. I was hoping they were going to head back up but alas...
    • bigfreddiel
    • By bigfreddiel 10th Oct 16, 4:26 PM
    • 4,071 Posts
    • 1,866 Thanks
    bigfreddiel
    Not quite so simples if the dividend is cut though (the anticipation of which might be part of the reason a share price is falling though am not taking specifically about BT here).
    Originally posted by tg99
    Well of course everyone knows that, the eps goes down.

    Just don't get stuck on the yield quoted as a percentage
    • $nake eye$
    • By $nake eye$ 10th Oct 16, 7:10 PM
    • 349 Posts
    • 144 Thanks
    $nake eye$
    Try hang in there! You only lose out when you sell
    • green_man
    • By green_man 10th Oct 16, 7:26 PM
    • 172 Posts
    • 68 Thanks
    green_man
    Despite the drop they are still double where the were 3ish years ago, and almost double their pre crash 2007 peak, so I don't think you can assume they they are particularly undervalued at current levels.
    • BLB53
    • By BLB53 10th Oct 16, 7:28 PM
    • 917 Posts
    • 753 Thanks
    BLB53
    I was too greedy; I was planning to offload some at 500p. I was hoping they were going to head back up but alas...
    I suspect many investors are not prepared for the volatility in the price of individual shares. They go down for no apparent reason...and stay down, but of course, as soon as we sell they shoot back up!

    Most small investors would be far better served with a low cost global index fund which they can 'buy-and-forget' - part of the problem with individual shares is the temptation to check how they are doing every 5 minutes!
    "A low-cost index tracker is going to beat a majority of the amateur-managed money or professionally managed money" Warren Buffett
    • EdGasket
    • By EdGasket 10th Oct 16, 9:05 PM
    • 3,030 Posts
    • 1,234 Thanks
    EdGasket
    Directors were selling huge quantities at over £4; that was your sell signal:

    http://www.nandp.co.uk/sharedealing/company/?companyCode=BT.A
    • Gadfium
    • By Gadfium 10th Oct 16, 11:09 PM
    • 545 Posts
    • 989 Thanks
    Gadfium
    Directors were selling huge quantities at over £4; that was your sell signal:

    http://www.nandp.co.uk/sharedealing/company/?companyCode=BT.A
    Originally posted by EdGasket
    Tony Chanmugam is a regular seller (he must have an expensive lifestyle!). £7.4M worth of stock sales in the last 2 years. Tough life at the top, eh?
    • EdGasket
    • By EdGasket 11th Oct 16, 9:33 AM
    • 3,030 Posts
    • 1,234 Thanks
    EdGasket
    My view is that if the outlook for BT was good, the directors would have waited a bit to sell vast quantities of shares. They knew it wasn't so rosy so got out with the cash.
    • Gadfium
    • By Gadfium 11th Oct 16, 1:05 PM
    • 545 Posts
    • 989 Thanks
    Gadfium
    My view is that if the outlook for BT was good, the directors would have waited a bit to sell vast quantities of shares. They knew it wasn't so rosy so got out with the cash.
    Originally posted by EdGasket

    Well, it's an opinion. If they knew what was in the future then I guess they'd be doing something else.
    • grey gym sock
    • By grey gym sock 12th Oct 16, 1:41 AM
    • 3,834 Posts
    • 3,233 Thanks
    grey gym sock
    Just under 10% of my portfolio. Apart from a 10% holding in Lloyds (that’s another story!), the rest of my portfolio is spread around various UK and Global funds
    Originally posted by Sinbad
    how seriously you are exposed with 10% of your portfolio does rather depend on the size of your portfolio, and what stage of your working life you are at. if you were on the cusp of retirement, and hoping to support your retirement mainly using this portfolio, then the risk would be very great. at an earlier stage of your life, with a smaller portfolio, it's less worrying.

    look at it this way: suppose your BT shares became worthless. how long would you have to postpone your retirement in order to earn enough to recover the loss? if it's a month or 2, not that big a deal; but if it's a few years, ...
    • Pincher
    • By Pincher 26th Oct 16, 12:14 AM
    • 5,859 Posts
    • 2,143 Thanks
    Pincher
    Half Year Results
    Half year Result coming out today.

    May the Force with you, and push the stock up to £5.
    What happens if you push this button?
    • Gadfium
    • By Gadfium 26th Oct 16, 8:10 AM
    • 545 Posts
    • 989 Thanks
    Gadfium
    Half year Result coming out today.

    May the Force with you, and push the stock up to £5.
    Originally posted by Pincher
    Nothing like a bit of optimism!
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