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    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 9th Jun 15, 7:25 AM
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    Martyn1981
    Green, ethical, energy issues in the news.
    • #1
    • 9th Jun 15, 7:25 AM
    Green, ethical, energy issues in the news. 9th Jun 15 at 7:25 AM
    I thought it might be a good idea to have a thread for posting general news items that may be of interest.

    PV and the 'Solar in the news' thread attract a lot of interest, so here's a thread for all the other goings on.

    Mart.
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
Page 48
    • NigeWick
    • By NigeWick 7th Dec 17, 9:34 AM
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    NigeWick
    The issue here is that they don't learn ...
    Originally posted by zeupater
    My understanding is that AI is learning to learn. And, with the rate of progress expected it will soon be time for a real life living wage payment to the whole population paid for from the earnings of our machines.
    The mind of the bigot is like the pupil of the eye; the more light you pour upon it, the more it will contract.
    Oliver Wendell Holmes
    • zeupater
    • By zeupater 7th Dec 17, 12:24 PM
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    zeupater
    My understanding is that AI is learning to learn. And, with the rate of progress expected it will soon be time for a real life living wage payment to the whole population paid for from the earnings of our machines.
    Originally posted by NigeWick
    Hi

    Isn't that the same theory as perpetual motion ... ? ...

    .. in the real world a 1kW generator is initially supplied with 1kW of power in order to start generating enough power to keep itself running ... however system inefficiencies (sound/heat etc) drain away a proportion of the available power on every cycle ... the machine slows due to power starvation ... it stops ...

    A man initially has £1 ... he buys some product made by an automated machine for £1 ... the cost of the running the machine & material procurement is covered, the machine makes a huge profit, the owner takes a small cut, the government takes a larger one to run whatever it needs to run and less than £1 is paid to the man ... rinse, repeat ... system inefficiencies (profit/tax etc) drain away a proportion of the available money on every cycle ... the payments to the man slows resulting in real starvation ... he stops, dies, shuffles of his mortal coil, he is no more - he is an ex-human ...

    I've yet to see anyone who's ever described or predicted a form of perpetual motion to be proved right, so I doubt that the proponents of this new form will either ..

    HTH
    Z
    "We are what we repeatedly do, excellence then is not an act, but a habit. " ...... Aristotle
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 7th Dec 17, 12:52 PM
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    Martyn1981
    Rise of the robots!
    My understanding is that AI is learning to learn.
    Originally posted by NigeWick
    Tesla's have been sending back info for years from their 8(?) cameras. Japan is to start trialing self-driving taxis next year, but only on some specific pre-mapped routes.
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 7th Dec 17, 12:55 PM
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    Martyn1981
    Australian Islands and isolated comunties are switching from diesel to a mix of renewables, storage, fly-wheel and coughdieselcough back up.

    Coober Pedy enjoys 100% renewables after switch to hybrid solar, wind + battery system

    South Australia’s iconic opal mining town of Coober Pedy has successfully – and finally – made the shift to clean energy, and is already achieving periods of 100 per cent renewables since the completion of its wind, solar, battery storage and diesel hybrid system last month.

    Hydro Tasmania, which engineered and installed the hybrid renewables solution, said on Thursday that the project was performing slightly above expectations in its early weeks, contributing an average of 80 per cent renewables in October, and running the local grid entirely on renewable energy for more than half of that time.

    The result notches up another win for Hydro Tasmania, whose busy Hybrid Energy Solutions team recently took Rottnest Island to 45 per cent renewables, with up to 90 per cent instantaneous renewable contribution achievable.

    It has done the same for Flinders Island, where a hybrid energy hub will be switched on in December, with the aim of meeting at least 60 per cent the island’s 6.7 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of annual demand with renewables, and minimising the output of its 3MW diesel power station.

    And, of course, it has done the same for the large King Island, where Hydro Tasmania’s prototype wind, solar and battery system – aimed at providing 65 per cent of the Bass Strait island’s energy needs from renewables – has regularly achieved 100 per cent renewables, on one occasion for 33 hours straight.
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
    • zeupater
    • By zeupater 7th Dec 17, 1:33 PM
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    zeupater
    Tesla's have been sending back info for years from their 8(?) cameras. Japan is to start trialing self-driving taxis next year, but only on some specific pre-mapped routes.
    Originally posted by Martyn1981
    Hi

    Yes, that's exactly the issue. With safety critical applications the AI can't be allowed to learn by mistake - just think of the consequences - the approach has to be to use the AI between the sensors and the lines of instruction and when there's no applicable 'rule', request to be 'taught' (aka programmed) ...

    For example, the AI in this case is to take a visual representation of an object and compare to a database ... a lorry may be a different colour, shorter, taller but it's still a lorry so the AI system needs to compare what it 'sees' from one angle, compare it to a database of similar items which will almost certainly be from different perspectives/angles and decide what it is ... if it's the front of a lorry and the sensors show that the distance between the two vehicles is decreasing at the rate which matches your own vehicle speed, then it's a stationary lorry with the cab facing you and therefore different decisions must be taken than if it was moving or facing the opposite direction, but are the indicators working?, is the cab door open?, could there be a driver stepping into the road? .. that's what the AI interface does, collect, interpret and compare to a preset library of rules .... if there are no rules identified, a default set of actions are taken, maybe in this example the pre-allocated solution would be to stop and wait for a while to see if the situation changes before selecting an alternative route or simply connect to a control room to await some form of instruction ... there's loads of options, but at this stage of AI development those will certainly not include a 'try this and see what happens' learning process.

    HTH
    Z
    Last edited by zeupater; 07-12-2017 at 1:39 PM. Reason: -different (duplicated)
    "We are what we repeatedly do, excellence then is not an act, but a habit. " ...... Aristotle
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 8th Dec 17, 8:14 AM
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    Martyn1981
    Good news, unless you own a coal plant.

    ‘Death spiral’: half of Europe’s coal plants are losing money

    More than half of the European Union’s 619 coal-fired power stations are losing money, according to a new report. As a result, the industry’s slow plans for shutdowns will lead to €22bn in losses by 2030 if the EU fulfils its pledge to tackle climate change, the report warns.
    “The changing economics of renewables, as well as air pollution policy and rising carbon prices, has put EU coal power in a death spiral,” said Matt Gray, co-author of the Carbon Tracker report. “Utilities can’t do much to stop this other than drop coal or lobby governments and hope they will bail them out.”

    Gray said coal-fired electricity capacity could be replaced by cheaper renewables, with building new onshore wind and solar PV projects projected to be less expensive than operating existing coal plants by 2024 and 2027 respectively. “That is a striking finding, something that would be have been unimaginable five years ago,” he said. “The energy consumer deserves the lower cost options.”
    The expected coal use across the globe in coming decades, particularly in Asia, has fallen sharply recently. In 2013, the International Energy Agency expected world-wide coal-burning to grow by 40% by 2040 – it now anticipates just 1% growth.
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
    • NigeWick
    • By NigeWick 8th Dec 17, 9:12 AM
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    NigeWick
    I've yet to see anyone who's ever described or predicted a form of perpetual motion to be proved right, so I doubt that the proponents of this new form will either ..
    Originally posted by zeupater
    Depends on what you call perpetual. If a few billion years will suffice, how about the moon going round Earth?
    The mind of the bigot is like the pupil of the eye; the more light you pour upon it, the more it will contract.
    Oliver Wendell Holmes
    • NigeWick
    • By NigeWick 8th Dec 17, 9:17 AM
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    • 1,050 Thanks
    NigeWick
    Good news, unless you own a coal plant.
    Originally posted by Martyn1981
    If governments were to subsidise renewables and batteries the way they have fossil and nuclear generation we'll be laughing.
    The mind of the bigot is like the pupil of the eye; the more light you pour upon it, the more it will contract.
    Oliver Wendell Holmes
    • zeupater
    • By zeupater 8th Dec 17, 2:50 PM
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    zeupater
    Depends on what you call perpetual. If a few billion years will suffice, how about the moon going round Earth?
    Originally posted by NigeWick
    Hi

    That's just a lump of rock in a frictionless environment which has a mass great enough to overcome the relatively small forces acting upon it on a daily basis .. increase/decrease the forces (ie take a cut of the profits/change the energy/upset the force balance) and the orbit will decay or grow ... it's already moving away at about 1.5"/year, so we don't want to upset the balance ... just think of Mart's tidal lagoon and the knock on effects on his health, by the time they've built it there'd be no tides left & he'll be assigned to work the pits to keep the lights on, or there'll be 50m tides every day, which doesn't sound good for his solar generation! ....

    HTH
    Z
    "We are what we repeatedly do, excellence then is not an act, but a habit. " ...... Aristotle
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 8th Dec 17, 3:23 PM
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    Martyn1981
    UK government to release funding for mini nuclear power stations

    Not sure how to call this. £100m isn't actually that much, so I suppose covering all bets is a good idea.

    The problem though is that they hope to get them to commercial viability by 2030, and down to a cost of £60/MWh. But on-shore wind and PV are well below that today, and off-shore wind contracts for 2023 are approx £60/MWh and have already been issued. If storage is cheap by 2030, why fill it with nuclear leccy if RE leccy is cheaper.
    Originally posted by Martyn1981
    Update on this story. It's been spotted (really?) that the first SMR's will cost more than large scale nuclear, but after enough have been built, approx 5-6GW (and sold to whom?) they will drop to large scale nuclear costs, with the ideal being that they reach £60/MWh after 2030.

    Power from mini nuclear plants 'would cost more than from large ones'

    So nuclear (large or small) has now fallen behind renewables in cost, is falling further behind, but if we spend enough time and money, then we 'might' get £60/MWh leccy from SMR's in 2030, only 13yrs later than wind and PV in the UK, and which are still falling in price all over the world.

    I'm past baffled now. Going back - low carbon and cleaner than coal, great let's have some if economically competitive. But today, when are we going to stop funding the more expensive and less popular technologies, and start doing what almost every other country on the planet is doing.

    Various UK governments turned their backs on developing wind energy technology in the UK, but now this one thinks Rolls Royce is going to sell expensive mini-nukes to other countries in 2030 (at around $80/MWh), when they are contracting PV and wind as low as $20/MWh today?

    Rant (baffled rant) over.
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
    • zeupater
    • By zeupater 8th Dec 17, 3:49 PM
    • 3,815 Posts
    • 4,721 Thanks
    zeupater
    Update on this story. It's been spotted (really?) that the first SMR's will cost more than large scale nuclear, but after enough have been built, approx 5-6GW (and sold to whom?) they will drop to large scale nuclear costs, with the ideal being that they reach £60/MWh after 2030.

    Power from mini nuclear plants 'would cost more than from large ones'

    So nuclear (large or small) has now fallen behind renewables in cost, is falling further behind, but if we spend enough time and money, then we 'might' get £60/MWh leccy from SMR's in 2030, only 13yrs later than wind and PV in the UK, and which are still falling in price all over the world.

    I'm past baffled now. Going back - low carbon and cleaner than coal, great let's have some if economically competitive. But today, when are we going to stop funding the more expensive and less popular technologies, and start doing what almost every other country on the planet is doing.

    Various UK governments turned their backs on developing wind energy technology in the UK, but now this one thinks Rolls Royce is going to sell expensive mini-nukes to other countries in 2030 (at around $80/MWh), when they are contracting PV and wind as low as $20/MWh today?

    Rant (baffled rant) over.
    Originally posted by Martyn1981
    Hi

    I suppose the issue they've missed is that by the time all of this new nuclear capacity comes on line, energy from other sources will likely be 'too cheap to meter' ... ...

    HTH
    Z
    "We are what we repeatedly do, excellence then is not an act, but a habit. " ...... Aristotle
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 8th Dec 17, 3:58 PM
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    Martyn1981
    Another big decision/announcement .... only 33 yrs to go. But nice to see decentralized generation being 'bigged up' near the end.

    European Utilities Commit To 100% Carbon-Neutral Electricity “Well Before” 2050 … Because It’s Cheaper
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 8th Dec 17, 4:00 PM
    • 6,138 Posts
    • 10,266 Thanks
    Martyn1981
    Hi

    I suppose the issue they've missed is that by the time all of this new nuclear capacity comes on line, energy from other sources will likely be 'too cheap to meter' ... ...

    HTH
    Z
    Originally posted by zeupater
    I've just realised something weird, I'm suggesting £60/MWh ain't cheap, nor worth the long term investment. Boy things have moved fast in the RE world this decade.
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
    • NigeWick
    • By NigeWick 9th Dec 17, 12:33 PM
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    NigeWick
    it's already moving away at about 1.5"/year,
    Originally posted by zeupater
    That's why I quoted a few billion years. I think our scientists reckon something like 4 - 5 billion until the moon legs it. That said, the sun may have expanded to take in this part of the solar system by the actual departure date.
    The mind of the bigot is like the pupil of the eye; the more light you pour upon it, the more it will contract.
    Oliver Wendell Holmes
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 12th Dec 17, 8:27 AM
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    Martyn1981
    Just a couple of slightly different stories relating to push back on carbon and changing world views.

    Macron awards US scientists grants to move to France in defiance of Trump

    Insurance giant Axa dumps investments in tar sands pipelines
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
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