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    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 9th Jun 15, 7:25 AM
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    Martyn1981
    Green, ethical, energy issues in the news.
    • #1
    • 9th Jun 15, 7:25 AM
    Green, ethical, energy issues in the news. 9th Jun 15 at 7:25 AM
    I thought it might be a good idea to have a thread for posting general news items that may be of interest.

    PV and the 'Solar in the news' thread attract a lot of interest, so here's a thread for all the other goings on.

    Mart.
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
Page 47
    • Exiled Tyke
    • By Exiled Tyke 3rd Dec 17, 2:19 PM
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    Exiled Tyke
    This is something that I've pondered too, as the issue is will the number of cars at peak time be reduced, and initially the answer is no.

    I suggested car sharing on Navitron, but the thoughts were that people could do this today but don't. However I think there is a difference here as no co-ordination would be needed, or driving out of the way to collect/drop off a colleague.

    Let's say you request a car, and opting for car-sharing gives you a discount regardless, so a £1 journey becomes 80p.

    Then half way someone else requests a car sharing in the same direction, and a pick up on the route, so it stops for them, now you pay 40p for the first half of the journey and 20p for the second half, without any messing around.

    I'm starting to change my mind as to Tony's idea. I no longer wonder if it's possible, but rather how it could not happen, when you have a tonne or more of reminder outside constantly pointing out the £1,000's or £10'000's you have 'wasted'.

    I've got a horrible feeling that when I can afford/justify an EV, it'll be almost too late. I hope I don't miss out.
    Originally posted by Martyn1981
    I like your thinking. Only one question remains for me: What will I do for my Summer road trip to France visiting vineyards?
    Install 28th Nov 15, 3.3kW, (11x300LG), SolarEdge, SW. W Yorks.
    • zeupater
    • By zeupater 3rd Dec 17, 3:34 PM
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    zeupater
    Hiya. Same reason, the cost issue. If the cost of a taxi falls by 90% why would they bother learning to drive. This is the key issue and reason for the disruption that Tony is suggesting.

    For myself I live about 3 miles from the center of Cardiff, and a taxi journey would be about £10 each way. At £1 each way it's simply not worth bothering with the hassle of parking, even before considering the cost of parking, or the variable costs of my car.

    I haven't seen anyone do any analysis on Tony's 90% cost reduction, but based on the 3 reasons I gave previously, it would seem fair.
    Originally posted by Martyn1981
    Hi

    From that your position seems to reflect exactly what the issue is ... dwelling in what is effectively a capital city, the largest urbanised area in a country with not only access to taxis but also decent & reliable public transport which actually provides a cheaper form of transport than taxis already ... your £10 each way taxi ride to the city-centre could be probably be achieved on a bus for £1 already, so the additional expenditure is a matter of choice .... for us to take a taxi to the nearest city would likely cost closer to £100, so it's not an option so a mixture of transportation would be necessary ... taxi/bus & train at the moment, which although would be replaced by a driverless taxi/bus & train in the scenario painted, with the taxi element taking only a fraction of the total journey cost if apportioned over multiple occupants, but importantly, both would still be far more expensive and more inconvenient than using a car & parking ...

    Now for something completely different ... we have family not too far away but it still takes about 1 hour to get there on A & B roads ... the public transport solution would involve at least a 4 hour journey each way with multiple potential points of failure (missing links etc), so a choice of a pretty expensive journey by driverless taxi, hiring a car or not going because of the time involved ....

    Anyway, time will tell ... if the optimists are right then most people will already have bought and own their last car, but if the automotive industry still exists without mass investor hysteria in (say) 5 years then the optimists will have egg on their faces ... whichever the case, our current car won't be our last but we don't live in a major urban area where people who make these kind of predictions tend to congregate & conduct 'group-think' sessions .... anyone out there in an urban environment thought about putting their car on the market to move to public transport whilst there's still a residual pre-owned vehicle market value ? ...

    HTH
    Z
    "We are what we repeatedly do, excellence then is not an act, but a habit. " ...... Aristotle
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 3rd Dec 17, 3:59 PM
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    Martyn1981
    your £10 each way taxi ride to the city-centre could be probably be achieved on a bus for £1 already, so the additional expenditure is a matter of choice
    Originally posted by zeupater
    But I'm not talking about buses, I'm talking about the home owned car, and for that a comparison is a taxi. If the taxi costs less than owning a car, then things will start to change.


    Now for something completely different ... we have family not too far away but it still takes about 1 hour to get there on A & B roads ... the public transport solution would involve at least a 4 hour journey each way with multiple potential points of failure (missing links etc), so a choice of a pretty expensive journey by driverless taxi, hiring a car or not going because of the time involved ....

    HTH
    Z
    Originally posted by zeupater
    But the issue here is that the journey by driverless taxi wouldn't be expensive, or pretty expensive, it should be pretty cheap. If that happens then folk are going to start to question the large cost or large investment in owning a car that they use very little.

    If your trip costs the same in your car, or by car on demand, then why pay more on top for the large garden ornament (depreciation, tax, insurance, maintenance, even the space itself).

    Tony's figures suggest that not only would a car on demand be cheaper than buying a new car, but that it would become cheaper than running your current car.

    I appreciate that the picture he makes sounds crazy, but all of the jigsaw pieces he has look correct, so it can't be right, but at the same time I can't see how it can be wrong.
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 3rd Dec 17, 4:18 PM
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    Martyn1981
    UK government to release funding for mini nuclear power stations

    Not sure how to call this. £100m isn't actually that much, so I suppose covering all bets is a good idea.

    The problem though is that they hope to get them to commercial viability by 2030, and down to a cost of £60/MWh. But on-shore wind and PV are well below that today, and off-shore wind contracts for 2023 are approx £60/MWh and have already been issued. If storage is cheap by 2030, why fill it with nuclear leccy if RE leccy is cheaper.

    Government officials have repeatedly made it clear that developers will only get financial help from government if they can prove their SMR will be affordable and competitive with rival energy sources. The earliest an SMR is thought likely to be ready for deployment in the UK is around 2030.
    However, energy experts said the case for SMRs was far from proven, especially given the falling cost of alternatives such as offshore windfarms.

    Paul Dorfman, a research fellow at University College London, said: “The real question the government must ask is this: given the ongoing steep and ongoing reduction in all renewable energy costs, and since SMR research and development is still very much ongoing, by the time SMRs comes to market, can they ever be cost competitive with renewable energy? The simple answer to that is a resounding no.”

    An energy industry source also questioned how credible most of the SMR developers were. “Almost none of them have got more than a back of a fag packet design drawn with a felt tip,” the source said.
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
    • zeupater
    • By zeupater 3rd Dec 17, 5:35 PM
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    zeupater
    But I'm not talking about buses, I'm talking about the home owned car, and for that a comparison is a taxi. If the taxi costs less than owning a car, then things will start to change.

    But the issue here is that the journey by driverless taxi wouldn't be expensive, or pretty expensive, it should be pretty cheap. If that happens then folk are going to start to question the large cost or large investment in owning a car that they use very little.

    If your trip costs the same in your car, or by car on demand, then why pay more on top for the large garden ornament (depreciation, tax, insurance, maintenance, even the space itself).

    Tony's figures suggest that not only would a car on demand be cheaper than buying a new car, but that it would become cheaper than running your current car.

    I appreciate that the picture he makes sounds crazy, but all of the jigsaw pieces he has look correct, so it can't be right, but at the same time I can't see how it can be wrong.
    Originally posted by Martyn1981
    Hi

    But when talking about transport which isn't readily available in the form of a personal car you have to consider all forms of transport as already mentioned ...

    If we lived in a large city I'd look to use the most convenient/cheapest form which suited the journey ... in & around London people with cars already use the tube, buses, taxis, trains etc and have absolutely no need for a car because everything is pretty much on their doorstep ... for longer journeys to 'the sticks' there's a vehicle hire operation within a few miles ... now reverse the position & look at the same from the viewpoint of someone living in 'the sticks' or even a small town in one of the shire counties where a considerable proportion of the population live ...

    Regarding 'owned car' vs 'car by demand' ... we're back to the same issue as previously raised, that's availability and wait time .... in our case that's already been stated to currently be around 15-20 minutes as a minimum for a driven taxi to arrive at the door, so there's no reason to believe that a driverless one would be any faster and plenty of reason to expect one to take longer overall based on there being some form of central muster-point with charging facilities etc .... to me that's exactly the form of lifestyle restriction as reliance on public transport provided to my ancestors a century ago & therefore cannot be considered to be progressive - this is exactly the reason why people with access to even the best public transport systems still own their own cars ... it's not a cost driven decision, it's convenience in a world where 'personal time' is considered valuable and therefore seen as worthwhile ...

    MrsZ popped out a while ago and will be back in about 1 hour or so - semi-planned, but not to the extent that you'd book a transport timeslot there & the time that she'll want to return isn't fixed either ... at sometime later she'll be going out again for a couple of hours with the same variable-time requirements ... the time between, before & after is her own and to us that has a value .... now, without access to a personal vehicle, each of the four journeys involved would need a taxi - it's much too far to walk & there isn't any public transport running ... that alone would rob her of 1-1.5hrs of waiting for a taxi from the time that she could make the decision to book one ... the question is, would others place a value on their time? .. if so, there's a complete & major logical error in the reasoning for shared vehicles - convenience!

    The point that the driverless taxi will have considerable maintenance requirements on the sensor equipment etc is overlooked on any cost comparison I've seen so far. This must be included because it will have to be, health & safety regulations will see to that! ... EVs may be good for longevity, but the sensors require to make them autonomous & their maintenance will be a pretty important and potentially weak point in the chain, else there'll be serious consequences!. A very likely result of this is that hired driverless vehicles will have very short operation licence restrictions which will increase the cost/hour of operation .... yes, that's cost/hour not cost/mile as they're depreciating all of the time and the licence period (/lifespan) clock ticks at the same pace for vehicles in urban areas where usage is high & in less populated areas where it's not, that's the very same reason why the average age of taxis around here is higher than many other places - investing in new vehicles simply isn't viable .... meanwhile the highly depreciated pre-owned private-hire cars around here cost very little in additional depreciation whilst parked and will continue to do so ...

    HTH
    Z
    Last edited by zeupater; 03-12-2017 at 8:56 PM. Reason: -as +&
    "We are what we repeatedly do, excellence then is not an act, but a habit. " ...... Aristotle
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 4th Dec 17, 7:18 AM
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    Martyn1981
    Hi

    But when talking about transport which isn't readily available in the form of a personal car you have to consider all forms of transport as already mentioned ...

    HTH
    Z
    Originally posted by zeupater
    Hiya.

    I don't think so. If the issue is whether or not folk will stop owning their own car, then the real comparison is door to door transport, hence a taxi, as the impact of other forms of public transport already exists. One possible difference though might be cycling, as this could increase with more autonomous cars on the road as accidents should decrease significantly.

    TBH I can't really follow the 20 minute issue. I can't actually remember the last time we needed to rush out, so waiting 20mins for a car to arrive isn't an issue to me. Though that would of course get balanced against annual savings, so unless significant wouldn't change the decision.

    Talking about the sensors, what maintenance problems are there, I hadn't heard of any. I know the hardware already exists with Lidar, and soon solid state Lidar, and the Model 3 already has the required computing power, so it's just the software that needs finalising. There are some driverless cars being tested already in the US, so 5yrs to get it all working sounds reasonable. After that, as I said earlier, if a journey in your car or car on demand is roughly the same cost, then the other 90% of the time the car is sitting idle is a large expense (90% of depreciation, tax, insurance etc).

    It'll be interesting to see what happens, but I suspect minimal city use and new drivers (or should that be potential new drivers) not learning, will be the first dominoes to drop, and once the secondhand market begins to crumble this will add additional 'depreciation' costs on the remainder, and so more dominoes fall (rinse and repeat).
    Last edited by Martyn1981; 04-12-2017 at 7:22 AM.
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 4th Dec 17, 7:28 AM
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    Martyn1981
    I like your thinking. Only one question remains for me: What will I do for my Summer road trip to France visiting vineyards?
    Originally posted by Exiled Tyke
    Taking the car sharing idea to the next level, perhaps there will be different sizes of vehicles available, so an order for one person non-sharing might mean a tiny 'Twizzy like' vehicle arrives, so they can drive two abreast down a lane. Or some sort of rubber bumpered pod that all link up like a train when heading in the same direction, again reducing the amount of road they consume, and reducing traffic jams.

    Not sure you'll be allowed to visit France in a couple of years, or if you do, you'll have to find a way back in dodging the razor wire and machine gun nests, having first scaled the Farage Wall, paid for by the French!
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
    • NigeWick
    • By NigeWick 4th Dec 17, 9:50 AM
    • 2,743 Posts
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    NigeWick
    I like your thinking. Only one question remains for me: What will I do for my Summer road trip to France visiting vineyards?
    Originally posted by Exiled Tyke
    I have no doubt that there will be something to suit that we haven't thought of yet. Perhaps Hertz or one of the others will have long term driverless rentals for just such an expedition.
    The mind of the bigot is like the pupil of the eye; the more light you pour upon it, the more it will contract.
    Oliver Wendell Holmes
    • zeupater
    • By zeupater 4th Dec 17, 1:40 PM
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    zeupater
    Hiya.

    I don't think so. If the issue is whether or not folk will stop owning their own car, then the real comparison is door to door transport, hence a taxi, as the impact of other forms of public transport already exists. One possible difference though might be cycling, as this could increase with more autonomous cars on the road as accidents should decrease significantly.

    TBH I can't really follow the 20 minute issue. I can't actually remember the last time we needed to rush out, so waiting 20mins for a car to arrive isn't an issue to me. Though that would of course get balanced against annual savings, so unless significant wouldn't change the decision.

    Talking about the sensors, what maintenance problems are there, I hadn't heard of any. I know the hardware already exists with Lidar, and soon solid state Lidar, and the Model 3 already has the required computing power, so it's just the software that needs finalising. There are some driverless cars being tested already in the US, so 5yrs to get it all working sounds reasonable. After that, as I said earlier, if a journey in your car or car on demand is roughly the same cost, then the other 90% of the time the car is sitting idle is a large expense (90% of depreciation, tax, insurance etc).

    It'll be interesting to see what happens, but I suspect minimal city use and new drivers (or should that be potential new drivers) not learning, will be the first dominoes to drop, and once the secondhand market begins to crumble this will add additional 'depreciation' costs on the remainder, and so more dominoes fall (rinse and repeat).
    Originally posted by Martyn1981
    Hi

    As already mentioned there are plenty of times that having a car available adds convenience & saves time ... that's hours & hours of time per week for some and that definitely has a value which needs to be added into the equation ... wait until you have care & legal responsibility for elderly relatives and need to get up and go with no notice. So what's the value? .. well, that depends ... what happens if you have a table booked at a restaurant and want to meet friends, the taxi's booked & it doesn't turn-up ... questions are asked and it'll arrive in 15-20minutes ... you've already had a hiccup which could ruin the evening, but there's currently the option to drive & not drink to save the situation .. an option which wouldn't even be on the table in the future we're discussing ... what's the value? .. a ruined evening @ £50-£100 ... an argument ? ... but of course, this doesn't happen in the future because of all of the vehicles available and the technology ? ... well it happens around here - the scheduling technology already exists and is used, but delays happen now and will continue to do so ... this is the bottleneck which was mentioned in an earlier post ... when we go out for a meal on a Friday night it's at the same time as thousands/millions of others, so that's what the number of vehicles available need to cope with - maximum demand, therefore during 'slack' times there'll be plenty of redundant vehicles ...

    Now let's look at that ... it's Friday at some time in the future - our 'lift' in takes 20 minutes to arrive & 10minutes to the destination - the return journey takes 5 minutes to arrive & 10 minutes home then a further 10 minutes back to the urban 'waiting' destination ... fine, that's 55 minutes of a driverless vehicle use over the evening at peak demand time ... but then again, if we're eating out the table will be booked for somewhere between 7pm & 9pm as is the case for most tables across the country ... yes, in this situation we and hundreds-of-thousands of others don't need our cars, but in utilising the driverless vehicle for 20%-25% of the total time available during these peak hours, there's little chance that the number of cars on the road could be reduced by 90%, therefore the redundant time of the car would need to be added to the productive time cost ... it's simple amortisation of cost over hours used! ... worse than this, the vast majority of non-academic people start work at a set time (say 8am-or-9am) - even allowing for an average doubling of journey sharing there's nowhere near the potential for a 90% reduction in either journey-miles or vehicles ... the 90% figure is likely the amount of time that a current vehicle is sitting doing nothing during the day when people are awake, but what's missed is that the majority of the required fleet of autonomous vehicles would also be doing nothing for the majority of the same hours too, that must be the case in order to cope with peak demand ... The 90% vehicle reduction is therefore the result of a pure pie-in-the sky academic exercise conducted without applying any logic related to real-world conditions!

    Without access to your own transport you lose the immediacy of availability so whatever transport is available at the time, whether it's scheduled public transport or driverless vehicles doesn't make much difference if available, it just becomes a cost & convenience issue ... however, in less urbanised and rural areas it really does make a difference - if there are no buses and no trains and no trams and no underground (get the picture yet!) then they can't be used .. you're forced to call a cab, which in our case would likely take 15-20 minutes to arrive - that's 15-20 minutes every time we need to move from where we are to anywhere at any time ... now, if the destination is more urban we can currently call a cab to get home & it arrives within a couple of minutes ... that's the difference that people in major urban environments don't really understand because transport is effectively available 'on demand', therefore there's no lead time, lag, waiting, wasted time or whatever you could call it .... and no, we don't live in the middle of nowhere, just the edge of a village which in itself isn't too many miles from a small town where any driven or driverless taxis are & would continue to be located ...

    Now, drivers not learning to drive? ... really? ... of course, this would serve anyone looking to operate a 'cloud' based transport system because it suits them ... if you can't drive then you're forced to rely on the cloud, so where's the benefit of discouraging the learning process ... 'Cui Bono ?' .... and the cloud's always cheap - isn't it? ... maybe at first .. set up the platform, provide it at a subsidised rate to destroy the existing solution and it's supporting infrastructure - then change the business model to improve the revenue stream ... well that's been done so many times now that I've no idea why it's overlooked by anyone! ... 'Cui Bono ?'

    Now to sensors ... at the moment there are many safety critical items on vehicles which need to have additional attention in the manufacturing process and need special attention throughout the lifespan of a vehicle (brakes, tyres etc). These items are pretty well proven and quite robust in operation, however whatever sensor technology is employed needs to have special attention .... before any journey you should visually inspect the conditions of a safety critical component of your current car, the tyres, but how many do ? ... now transpose this 'laziness' to visual or other proximity sensors in a driverless cab ... you may clean your specs when they need it, but in a driverless situation where the vehicle tells itself not to start or go any further until some remedial action is taken, what happens?, who cleans the mud-splattered sensors? ... I'll not even go into the technicalities of someone conducting DOS activities aimed at the sensors, or even sensor/processing errors caused by issues in extremely heavy traffic conditions where the same technology is employed by many vehicles .. but as it's a very real possibility with very real consequences it certainly shouldn't be discounted ...

    On the geeky-technical front, I'd need to see a breakdown of the decision making process as programmed into any particular autonomous vehicle ... Mum, dad & their two precious children in the back seats and a cat runs out ... does the cat die, or the kids? ... a kid on a bike comes out from nowhere - someone else's child, or the ones on the back seat ? ... the school minibus? .. the petrol tanker ? .. what happens in that split second? ... not only that, what happens when the line of code required to make the situation safe hasn't been written yet ... fine, it's a learning process - the family of the kids in the autonomous coffin vehicle could, for a reasonable sum, sponsor the addition of relevant lines of code and have them annotated as a memorial! ... I've used artificial intelligence and self learning systems and understand the process by which improvements and error corrections are made, so it'll take years & years of development and creating a safety track-record before I'd consider the level of risk to be acceptable ...


    HTH
    Z
    Last edited by zeupater; 04-12-2017 at 2:40 PM. Reason: -'s
    "We are what we repeatedly do, excellence then is not an act, but a habit. " ...... Aristotle
    • silverwhistle
    • By silverwhistle 4th Dec 17, 1:44 PM
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    silverwhistle
    I like your thinking. Only one question remains for me: What will I do for my Summer road trip to France visiting vineyards?
    Originally posted by Exiled Tyke
    Surely that's when you most need an autonomous car? My annual holiday is a drive to the Alps for a skiing holiday, but it's amazing how much northern Italian red wine you can bring back in a small hatchback!
    • zeupater
    • By zeupater 4th Dec 17, 2:02 PM
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    zeupater
    Surely that's when you most need an autonomous car? My annual holiday is a drive to the Alps for a skiing holiday, but it's amazing how much northern Italian red wine you can bring back in a small hatchback!
    Originally posted by silverwhistle
    Hi

    You could simply hire the car, send it, have it loaded at the other end and wait for it's return, whilst having a 3D virtual skiing tour of the Alps in your own home ... just think of the NHS ... no accident on the slopes or in the car leaving intravenous red wine (which is currently good for you according to the latest reports on research .. well this week anyway, so make the most of it whilst it's still legal) so that the dose isn't too large and stays within healthy guidelines ... HSE's vision of utopia ...

    Z ...
    "We are what we repeatedly do, excellence then is not an act, but a habit. " ...... Aristotle
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 4th Dec 17, 5:43 PM
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    Martyn1981
    Hi

    As already mentioned there are plenty of times that having a car available adds convenience & saves time

    HTH
    Z
    Originally posted by zeupater
    Absolutely true, but that has a value, and if that value is exceeded by savings (or lost savings), then people will change how they do things.

    I'm sorry Z but I'm not with you on this one, I think that car-on-demand will rapidly remove 2nd (and later) cars from households, and of course those that are already marginal, just not happy with the cost of alternatives, very quickly.

    I appreciate that waiting 5, 10 or 20 mins might be a pain, but for the majority of the time that is simply served by ordering before you need it, so no loss of time.

    Once the 2nd car market goes, and general ownership drops slightly, the second hand car market will collapse, and more pressure will be applied to households 1st car.

    For yourself, the value of keeping a vehicle may be worth it, as I'm sure it will for many others, but I suspect total personal ownership will fall dramatically.

    But regardless, we'll see. The hardware is ready, though cars such as the Model 3 and Bolt are still expensive, and I seem to recall the Model 3 computer has 10 teraflop capability, so a bit more than the 8 Tony said would be needed.

    What is now crucial is how the testing goes, as I mentioned in some US states or cities (can't recall) they are already being trialed, so it all depends on how fast they learn. Then we'll see what happens, but I suspect they'll be hitting our streets in 5yrs then the big disruption will start (or not), either way our car will be about done by then, so we'll be in a good position to watch and decide.

    All the best.
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
    • zeupater
    • By zeupater 4th Dec 17, 7:37 PM
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    zeupater
    ... so it all depends on how fast they learn. ...
    Originally posted by Martyn1981
    Hi

    The issue here is that they don't learn ... they compare to a test example and when something non-standard comes along there's a risk of not having lines of code to respond ... there'll be a coded default routine, but it's likely that the best that can happen is an alternative solution/route is selected or the vehicle simply stops and refuses to do anything at all, in both cases a sensor history data dump being streamed back to a team of people to collate and code an appropriate 'intelligent' response ... the worst is that the non-standard situation doesn't register as something which needs any action, therefore possibly resulting in a serious accident before anyone is alerted to create the appropriate rules ...

    As mentioned previously, I have direct experience with the type of technology which is being applied and have come across situations which were considered impossible by seriously good & leading systems analysts (from some of the most renowned technology companies in the world) resulting in many unforeseen issues, many of which only occurred after literally millions of cycles and tens-of-thousands of hours of operation ... it's also important to understand that in creating a process/situation based rule to apply under certain conditions, the sequence that a new rule is inserted into the the thousands of existing rules can also have consequences which may not become apparent for a considerable time .... as you say, we'll see, but don't expect me to play crash-test dummy any time soon just to make some cloud-based taxi company's business domination model successful ...

    I agree that the initial target for vehicle reduction will be second vehicles ... but that in no way cuts the number of vehicles on the road by anything like 90% and the depreciation costs during periods of autonomous vehicle fleet inactivity needs to be reflected in the hire costs which adds a considerable sum to compare to driven vehicles which are heavily depreciated before they enter the taxi market ...

    A further issue is the position of the current taxi drivers ... just look at the issues in London over a comparatively simple change like the introduction of Uber .... how many autonomous vehicles would you expect to see floating down the Thames courtesy of some disgruntled cockney cabbies with nothing other than the safety of their customers in mind ....

    HTH
    Z
    "We are what we repeatedly do, excellence then is not an act, but a habit. " ...... Aristotle
    • michaels
    • By michaels 5th Dec 17, 2:39 PM
    • 19,922 Posts
    • 91,328 Thanks
    michaels
    Hi

    The issue here is that they don't learn ... they compare to a test example and when something non-standard comes along there's a risk of not having lines of code to respond ... there'll be a coded default routine, but it's likely that the best that can happen is an alternative solution/route is selected or the vehicle simply stops and refuses to do anything at all, in both cases a sensor history data dump being streamed back to a team of people to collate and code an appropriate 'intelligent' response ... the worst is that the non-standard situation doesn't register as something which needs any action, therefore possibly resulting in a serious accident before anyone is alerted to create the appropriate rules ...

    As mentioned previously, I have direct experience with the type of technology which is being applied and have come across situations which were considered impossible by seriously good & leading systems analysts (from some of the most renowned technology companies in the world) resulting in many unforeseen issues, many of which only occurred after literally millions of cycles and tens-of-thousands of hours of operation ... it's also important to understand that in creating a process/situation based rule to apply under certain conditions, the sequence that a new rule is inserted into the the thousands of existing rules can also have consequences which may not become apparent for a considerable time .... as you say, we'll see, but don't expect me to play crash-test dummy any time soon just to make some cloud-based taxi company's business domination model successful ...

    I agree that the initial target for vehicle reduction will be second vehicles ... but that in no way cuts the number of vehicles on the road by anything like 90% and the depreciation costs during periods of autonomous vehicle fleet inactivity needs to be reflected in the hire costs which adds a considerable sum to compare to driven vehicles which are heavily depreciated before they enter the taxi market ...

    A further issue is the position of the current taxi drivers ... just look at the issues in London over a comparatively simple change like the introduction of Uber .... how many autonomous vehicles would you expect to see floating down the Thames courtesy of some disgruntled cockney cabbies with nothing other than the safety of their customers in mind ....

    HTH
    Z
    Originally posted by zeupater
    There is a vid of a tesla on autopilot where there are roadworks. There are yellow dashed lane marker lines indicating that each lane should move one to the right (it is in the US) but the original white line lane dividers continue straight on. In the left hand most lane there is then a concrete barrier that starts to the left and gradually covers the whole lane to protect the workers - a fairly typical roadworks situation.

    The tesla continues to follow the much more prominent white lane marker line rather than the hard to see yellow roadwork markings and hits the concrete barrier. Ouch.
    Cool heads and compromise
    • michaels
    • By michaels 5th Dec 17, 2:47 PM
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    michaels
    WE do 95% of our miles in one car, however we have a second one for:
    2 weeks holiday in the summer when we need a bigger car with a longer range
    the odd journey every 2-3 months where we go outside the range of our other car
    the odd journey every 1-2 months where we need to carry more people or bigger stuff than our other car can
    for a few hours each week when our kids all have activities in different directions

    Doing the maths, hiring/taxis costs similar to having a second car (of the pre-depreciated type) but is much less convenient so we have the second car.

    Car as a service is unlikely to be any cheaper than hiring for the holiday and long trips but might mean that for the two cars needed moments an autonomous car would be cheaper than a cab but I suspect the total saving would be unlikely to make us switch from an owned second car model.

    The first car gets much more use and does all the 'drop of a hat' journeys and thus it is unclear whether car as a service that was instantaneous enough not to be a real downside would be a lot cheaper as I can't see locally that there would be many with a usage pattern that would be complimentary to ours.
    Cool heads and compromise
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 5th Dec 17, 4:07 PM
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    Martyn1981
    Doing the maths, hiring/taxis costs similar to having a second car (of the pre-depreciated type) but is much less convenient so we have the second car.
    Originally posted by michaels
    I suspect the maths will be similar for many households, millions of households. When/if the taxi cost falls by 90%, then things will change significantly.

    I'm only guessing, but perhaps a low mileage second car is £2.5k per year. £1k petrol, £1k service/mot/maintenance/depreciation, £0.5k insurance and VED.

    So if a car-on-demand cost £1k pa, it may be cheaper even than buying an older EV due to the fixed costs of a low use vehicle.


    I think we need planning permission if we extend forward, but perhaps in 10-20 years we'll all start having front extensions!
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 6th Dec 17, 4:30 PM
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    Martyn1981
    No idea if this is good or bad news? It's not exactly G&E either, but it is low carbon.

    Korean energy firm rescues UK's Moorside nuclear power project

    As well as having to clear regulatory hurdles, the Koreans are also likely to have to negotiate with the government for a guaranteed price for power from the Moorside plant.

    That process took EDF several years for Hinkley and resulted in a contract that ensures the French will get £92.50 per megawatt hour, or around twice the wholesale price, for 35 years. The UK’s spending watchdog has called the project “risky and expensive”.

    The price of state support for offshore windfarms has since dropped to a record low of £62.14 per MWh on average, leading one top German energy firm to say nuclear can no longer compete on price.

    A source close to the NuGen project said they accepted that whatever price the Koreans secured with the government, it would have to be “significantly below” what was agreed for Hinkley.
    Well, it couldn't be more, could it?
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
    • zeupater
    • By zeupater 6th Dec 17, 4:43 PM
    • 3,815 Posts
    • 4,721 Thanks
    zeupater
    No idea if this is good or bad news? It's not exactly G&E either, but it is low carbon.

    Korean energy firm rescues UK's Moorside nuclear power project



    Well, it couldn't be more, could it?
    Originally posted by Martyn1981
    Hi

    I suppose that they're talking about South Korea, the ambiguity could well have @POTUS telling millions of loyal twitterati that the UK should be added to the axis of evil just at the time of year that some of the warmer southern states start to look appealing to many for some comfortable sun-worship and a more than a little overindulgence in BBQ'd racks of ribs in some smokey steakhouse or other ...

    HTH
    Z
    "We are what we repeatedly do, excellence then is not an act, but a habit. " ...... Aristotle
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 6th Dec 17, 5:29 PM
    • 6,138 Posts
    • 10,266 Thanks
    Martyn1981
    Hi

    I suppose that they're talking about South Korea, the ambiguity could well have @POTUS telling millions of loyal twitterati that the UK should be added to the axis of evil just at the time of year that some of the warmer southern states start to look appealing to many for some comfortable sun-worship and a more than a little overindulgence in BBQ'd racks of ribs in some smokey steakhouse or other ...

    HTH
    Z
    Originally posted by zeupater
    Nah, you've totally underestimated the abilities of Tory Ministers, there's no way they'd make a mistake like that, they know exactly which Korea will offer the most lucrative directorships for retired ministers.

    If not they'll simply go for the one that has decided to give up on nuclear generation (as too expensive and risky) once they've completed their last two reactors.

    Plus you're being too hard on Trump, after all, both Korea's want to export nuclear energy, plus the two together look a bit like an arm bent at the elbow, making them hard to differentiate for him from his !!!!.
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 7th Dec 17, 8:04 AM
    • 6,138 Posts
    • 10,266 Thanks
    Martyn1981
    UK could reach 12 GW storage capacity within five years, report finds

    According to the report, the U.K. could have 12 GW of subsidy-free battery storage deployed nationwide by 2021 if the government can learn the lessons of the solar industry’s growth trajectory by carefully supporting policies and measures designed to deliver greater energy security to the country.

    The report stresses that the capacity for cost reduction of battery storage technologies should not be underestimated in the way that solar PV was. As solar costs tumbled, the government – which had introduced generous FITs to encourage the uptake of PV – panicked and prematurely stripped away much of the support for solar.

    The APPG report states that storage and solar share many similar characteristics, chiefly that both technologies enjoy massive and sustained cost reductions the more capacity is deployed and embraced. Equally, the general public is largely supportive of energy storage in the same way that solar remains a much-loved energy source.

    These synergies should act as guiding principles to government to ensure that storage support is nuanced, realistic and free from the types of policy inconsistency that so spooked solar, said the report.
    Edit - Here's another article on this story, perhaps with a little more meat on it:-

    UK can deliver 12GW of battery storage with stronger policies, report finds
    Last edited by Martyn1981; 07-12-2017 at 12:24 PM. Reason: Added an edit
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
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