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  • FIRST POST
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 9th Jun 15, 7:25 AM
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    Martyn1981
    Green, ethical, energy issues in the news.
    • #1
    • 9th Jun 15, 7:25 AM
    Green, ethical, energy issues in the news. 9th Jun 15 at 7:25 AM
    I thought it might be a good idea to have a thread for posting general news items that may be of interest.

    PV and the 'Solar in the news' thread attract a lot of interest, so here's a thread for all the other goings on.

    Mart.
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
Page 45
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 22nd Nov 17, 7:56 AM
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    Martyn1981
    A bit from the house of commons audit committee.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42065837
    The poorest will be hit the hardest from hinkley point.
    regards
    gefnew
    Originally posted by gefnew
    Interesting.

    Just a few clarifications from the article.

    1. It states that the top up payments are about £30bn, but that's the figure from the 2016 NAO report. Since then future wholesale leccy prices have been revised down further, lifting the subsidy element to around £46bn.

    2. EDF state:
    "The agreed price is lower than 80% of other low carbon capacity contracted so far and the project has restarted UK nuclear construction after a quarter century.
    The 80% figure is probably true, but relates to the fact that off-shore wind contracts so far have been very high. But those contracts prices have fallen in every auction and the latest is £57.50/MWh v's £92.50/MWh for HPC (2012 prices).

    And, as always needs stating, the renewables subsidies are their first, dating back about 10yrs, whilst nuclear has been subsidised for 60yrs already.

    CfD rates can be compared here: CfD Register

    3. For anyone interested, when the HPC deal was being made, the NAO state:-

    2.8 The HPC strike price appears cost-competitive with other technologies in part because of the way it is structured. At the outset of negotiations, the Department set its negotiating team a firm mandate that a fixed strike price should lie in the range £78-£85/MWh (in 2012 prices). This was to ensure broad comparability with onshore wind costs, the cheapest renewable technology at the time, and new gas power stations delivering in 2020. To achieve this strike price, the Department agreed to a CfD longer than the standard 15-year term to spread the costs, and with the strike price indexed to inflation. Our!analysis shows to achieve the same investor return a 15-year CfD would have required a headline strike prices of around £113/MWh (in 2012 prices). The Department also considered that having a CfD with a longer duration would have helped EDF secure debt finance for the project, although it subsequently financed HPC using equity along with the investment from CGN.
    Firm mandate for £78-£85, giving a deal of £92.50!

    £78 v's £92.50 works out at £13bn in additional subsidies.
    Last edited by Martyn1981; 22-11-2017 at 7:59 AM.
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 22nd Nov 17, 1:24 PM
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    Martyn1981
    Just another story about large generation projects failing to come in on target.

    Statoil says Dudgeon wind farm 15% under budget

    Party time at Dudgeon

    Statoil, Masdar and Statkraft will today officially open the 402MW Dudgeon offshore wind farm off the coast of Norfolk in the UK.
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 23rd Nov 17, 8:14 AM
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    Martyn1981
    Not good news.

    No subsidies for green power projects before 2025, says UK Treasury

    Companies hoping to build new windfarms, solar plants and tidal lagoons, have been dealt a blow after the government said there would be no new subsidies for clean power projects until 2025 at the earliest.

    The Treasury said it had taken the decision to “protect” consumers, because households and businesses were facing an annual cost of about £9bn on their energy bills to pay for wind, solar and nuclear subsidies to which it had already committed.

    The revelation that there will be no more money for projects before 2025 could dash hopes for pioneering projects such as the proposed £1.3bn tidal lagoon in Swansea, which has a mooted launch date of 2022.

    In a Treasury document on carbon levies published on Wednesday, officials said: “On the basis of the current forecast, there will be no new low-carbon electricity levies until 2025.”
    I think this is very unfair, and also very misleading. Yes the £9bn impacts bills, I'd suggest around £110 per household based on domestic demand being about 30%.

    But .... renewables have helped to reduce peak prices, and estimates suggest that this equates to nearly 2/3rds of the subsidy costs.

    Also, the cost of subsidies per MWh has dropped massively. Look at PV, which is estimated to add around £10 to a household bill, but subsidies have fallen 90%, so rolling out the same again would cost £1 more. Or look at off-shore wind, in today's money the earliest schemes are about £162/MWh, whilst the latest is £60/MWh - if you deduct the wholesale price of about £40/MWh today (£50 when the new schemes come on line) then the subsidy per MWh has fallen from £122/MWh down to £20/MWh.

    But this bit could save the day:

    Some industry figures took comfort from Treasury language suggesting that some contracts might be allowed for renewables if the price were so low as to be effectively subsidy-free.
    Sometimes PV and on-shore wind just needs the security of a guaranteed price, so let's say it gets a CfD contract of £45/MWh, which at £40/MWh wholesale means it receives £5/MWh, but later at a £50/MWh wholesale price means it repays £5/MWh, that means it's not subsidy free today, but it is 'net-subsidy free' today across the 15yr contract term.

    We are so close now, why hamstring the whole renewables industry till 2025?
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
    • NigeWick
    • By NigeWick 23rd Nov 17, 10:45 AM
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    NigeWick
    Not good news.
    Originally posted by Martyn1981
    I presume the government will stop subsidising nuclear, coal and gas then?
    The mind of the bigot is like the pupil of the eye; the more light you pour upon it, the more it will contract.
    Oliver Wendell Holmes
    • EricMears
    • By EricMears 23rd Nov 17, 12:41 PM
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    EricMears
    I presume the government will stop subsidising nuclear, coal and gas then?
    Originally posted by NigeWick
    If only .... Alas, the extract does say no new subsidies.
    N Derbyshire.
    4kwp S Facing 17.5deg slope (dormer roof).
    • zeupater
    • By zeupater 23rd Nov 17, 4:05 PM
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    zeupater
    If only .... Alas, the extract does say no new subsidies.
    Originally posted by EricMears
    Hi

    Considering that large scale solar & wind schemes were specifically mentioned then I'd hope that a level playing field would mean that all other new nuclear build would be included too ...

    Quite odd really, looks like HM Treasury are considering the potential of a falling tax take (VAT/corporation etc) if windpower/solar continues to hold prices steady or even push prices lower ... just shows how poor the myopic official bean counters are at seeing the big picture ... now there's an advertising opportunity ...

    'An accountant stuck in a dead-end job at HM Treasury ? ... Well, you need to go to 5pec5aver5!! ... '

    Anyway, it's quite odd really, the biggest waste of money in the energy sector isn't even nuclear or renewables, it's Smart-meters!! ... they'll add over £500 to household bills for absolutely no benefit to the vast majority of consumers & simply line shareholders' & sub-contractor pockets ..

    HTH
    Z
    "We are what we repeatedly do, excellence then is not an act, but a habit. " ...... Aristotle
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 23rd Nov 17, 4:19 PM
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    Martyn1981
    I presume the government will stop subsidising nuclear, coal and gas then?
    Originally posted by NigeWick
    TBH, I can't quite tell from the article.

    Certainly they are helping gas and what coal is left by freezing the carbon tax. So less carbon tax is technically a subsidy.

    The government also announced that until 2025 it was freezing a carbon tax on dirty energy generators. Big energy firms, including SSE, have been calling for the tax, the carbon price floor, to be strengthened to encourage new investment in greener energy.

    Recent research by energy analysts suggested that without an increase in the tax, coal power plant owners would enjoy a last hurrah in the early 2020s before they hit a government deadline for the closure of all coal-fired stations by 2025.
    What I can't tell from the article is if HPC is included, since the contract has been issued, but it isn't expected to start till 2025, and is already nearly 2yrs behind schedule. The article is a bit vague, possibly deliberately about HPC.

    It is understood the policy will only affect projects generating electricity before 2025, so would not stop firms signing contracts for power stations coming online after 2025. That means the backers of new nuclear power stations are unlikely to be affected by the decision, because none was expected to be built by then. But it could be a blow for the companies wanting to build solar farms, onshore windfarms and other clean power plants at an earlier date.
    Perhaps I shouldn't kick HPC whilst it's down, but the approx £46bn subsidy would work out at £3bn pa for 15yr RE contracts, so that's 1/3 of the whole subsidy budget, and that's before considering just how small the new subsidies are now compared to the earlier ones.
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
    • NigeWick
    • By NigeWick 24th Nov 17, 9:09 AM
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    NigeWick
    What I can't tell from the article is if HPC is included, since the contract has been issued, but it isn't expected to start till 2025, and is already nearly 2yrs behind schedule.
    Originally posted by Martyn1981
    They'll continue with HPC until the bitter and ludicrously expensive end because we have "agreements" with China and France.
    The mind of the bigot is like the pupil of the eye; the more light you pour upon it, the more it will contract.
    Oliver Wendell Holmes
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 24th Nov 17, 9:23 AM
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    Martyn1981
    Hi

    Considering that large scale solar & wind schemes were specifically mentioned then I'd hope that a level playing field would mean that all other new nuclear build would be included too ...

    HTH
    Z
    Originally posted by zeupater
    Hi Z, can you check some assumptions/calculations for me, as my brain went another ponder whilst out for a walk.

    Assumptions:-

    1. HPC in today's money is to get £97/MWh, and the latest NAO predictions (page 39) for 2025 onwards is around £50/MWh for wholesale leccy, so the subsidy is £47/MWh (average).

    2. Generation per year will be approx 3,200MW x 24hrs x 365 days x 0.92%cf = 25,789,440MWhs (26TWh's).

    3. The subsidy payments will be approx £1.212bn pa (£47/MWh).

    4. The latest off-shore wind contracts are approx £60/MWh in today's money (£57.50 2012), and on-shore wind and PV should be comfortably under £60/MWh based on German contracts falling to around £40/MWh but not including all infrastructure costs.

    5. So the big 3, on-shore wind, off-shore wind and PV should be £60/MWh or less, so would require £10/MWh (or less) subsidy, going forward.

    If these assumptions are fair enough, then that means the big 3 could generate a MWh for each £10 of subsidy support. So £1.212bn would buy us an annual generation of 121,200,000MWhs = 121TWh's, or roughly 33% of the UK's annual leccy consumption, v's 7% from HPC.

    The reason I've asked/pondered this is because the economics of RE v's nuclear appears to have moved massively these last few years, and also compliments earlier discussions we've had about how much seems to have changed or fallen into place this year.

    All the best.
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 24th Nov 17, 5:01 PM
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    Martyn1981
    Article on the growth of storage, and interestingly suggesting behind the meter will account for more than half. Looks like demand side PV + storage will be propping up the grid in the future!

    BNEF Predicts Explosive Energy Storage Growth On Both Sides Of The Meter
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 25th Nov 17, 12:47 PM
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    Martyn1981
    This article starts out nice, but ends even better.

    A Third Of Power Capacity Added In India This Year Is Solar

    Around 10,140 megawatts of renewable energy capacity has been added during this time, which puts solar’s share at an impressive 57%. India added a net power generation capacity, across all technologies, of 17,011 megawatts in the first 10 months of the year. 34% of this came from solar, and 26% from wind, with the total share of renewable energy at 60%. This is in stark contrast with the current share of renewable energy in the total installed capacity of the country. Renewable energy capacity of 60.1 gigawatts forms just 18% of the total installed capacity of 331 gigawatts.
    So capacity (note, not generation) has been 60% renewables, and only 25% thermal, but it gets better,

    Coal catching up with renewable energy, or solar, seems a bit difficult. Coal-based capacity contracted during the third quarter as several ageing power plants were retired.
    so whilst there has been a lot of new coal built, at least a lot of old coal is closing too.
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
    • gefnew
    • By gefnew 27th Nov 17, 9:49 PM
    • 71 Posts
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    gefnew
    Hi All
    here is a item about car batteries and smart charging and feeding some of it back to the grid etc.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42013625
    regards
    gefnew
    • NigeWick
    • By NigeWick 28th Nov 17, 9:37 AM
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    NigeWick
    here is an item about car batteries and smart charging and feeding some of it back to the grid etc.
    Originally posted by gefnew
    If @tonyseba is correct, and I think he is, in 10-15 years time there will only be about 10-20% of the number of private vehicles that we have now. Autonomous Electric Vehicles (AEVs) will mean that most people will just use an app to call a car when they want one to take them to where they want to go. The vehicle will then go and service another passenger. When you want to go home, you just call another vehicle. That will leave say 4 million cars to charge off peak (or like me, home solar) and put electricity back at peak times meaning we'll perhaps need another 10% of electricity generation in total. If all new builds are oriented correctly and have solar PV plus batteries we will be well on the way to having a resilient renewable energy system.
    The mind of the bigot is like the pupil of the eye; the more light you pour upon it, the more it will contract.
    Oliver Wendell Holmes
    • zeupater
    • By zeupater 28th Nov 17, 2:30 PM
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    zeupater
    Hi Z, can you check some assumptions/calculations for me, as my brain went another ponder whilst out for a walk.

    Assumptions:-

    1. HPC in today's money is to get £97/MWh, and the latest NAO predictions (page 39) for 2025 onwards is around £50/MWh for wholesale leccy, so the subsidy is £47/MWh (average).

    2. Generation per year will be approx 3,200MW x 24hrs x 365 days x 0.92%cf = 25,789,440MWhs (26TWh's).

    3. The subsidy payments will be approx £1.212bn pa (£47/MWh).

    4. The latest off-shore wind contracts are approx £60/MWh in today's money (£57.50 2012), and on-shore wind and PV should be comfortably under £60/MWh based on German contracts falling to around £40/MWh but not including all infrastructure costs.

    5. So the big 3, on-shore wind, off-shore wind and PV should be £60/MWh or less, so would require £10/MWh (or less) subsidy, going forward.

    If these assumptions are fair enough, then that means the big 3 could generate a MWh for each £10 of subsidy support. So £1.212bn would buy us an annual generation of 121,200,000MWhs = 121TWh's, or roughly 33% of the UK's annual leccy consumption, v's 7% from HPC.

    The reason I've asked/pondered this is because the economics of RE v's nuclear appears to have moved massively these last few years, and also compliments earlier discussions we've had about how much seems to have changed or fallen into place this year.

    All the best.
    Originally posted by Martyn1981
    Hi

    Looks pretty fair ... in simple terms (47/10)x7%=32.9% ...

    However, I strongly believe that even the NAO 2016 reassessment of wholesale electricity prices will be subject to severe generation cost & price competition pressure well before the expected date and would anticipate that £5-10/MWh would be scrubbed from the forecast 'hump' in Fig:10 and presume that avoidance of political embarrassment resulting from the unreasonably generous strike prices and the resultant pressure on ongoing programs has been taken into consideration ...

    Anyway, whilst scratching the head about this adding £125-£250million/year of additional cfd support to HPC alone, I'd hazard a guess that the level of support would still be severely underestimated if using such a simplistic averaged wholesale pricing approach, have a think about this ....

    The average wholesale electricity price is just that, the average over the entire day/period ... however, demand fluctuates and requires far more generation during the day than at night with higher daytime supply pricing - now the logic bomb ... generation at HPC would be pretty consistent with similar energy generation during 12 night-time hours as the 12 daytime, therefore the average wholesale price from HPC will (/should) be lower than the overall average price by a considerable sum ... if the overnight/weekend average generation is half of weekly daytime with lower average wholesale pricing we could easily be looking at an underestimation of subsidy by a further £12-£18/MWh, so around £300million to £450million per year! ... '£quite-a-few-billion' (at 2016 prices) over the total length of the cfd support period ....

    As they say .... 'The devils in the detail' .... a potential £425-£700 million underestimate based on the level of detail which has been provided ! ...

    HTH
    Z
    Last edited by zeupater; 28-11-2017 at 3:38 PM.
    "We are what we repeatedly do, excellence then is not an act, but a habit. " ...... Aristotle
    • zeupater
    • By zeupater 28th Nov 17, 2:43 PM
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    zeupater
    If @tonyseba is correct, and I think he is, in 10-15 years time there will only be about 10-20% of the number of private vehicles that we have now. Autonomous Electric Vehicles (AEVs) will mean that most people will just use an app to call a car when they want one to take them to where they want to go. The vehicle will then go and service another passenger. When you want to go home, you just call another vehicle. That will leave say 4 million cars to charge off peak (or like me, home solar) and put electricity back at peak times meaning we'll perhaps need another 10% of electricity generation in total. If all new builds are oriented correctly and have solar PV plus batteries we will be well on the way to having a resilient renewable energy system.
    Originally posted by NigeWick
    Hi

    Fine if you live in heavily urbanised areas, however if the kettle's on & we need a jar of coffee or a pint of milk some of us would need to wait for at least 20minutes for an autonomous vehicle to arrive even if they were available & despatched immediately! ...

    It's great for energy & transport policies to evolve, but sometimes the authors of such systems need to get out of their plush urban-centric mindset and take a realistic approach .... to apply a basic level of logic to this, the first question to ask would be ...

    ... 'with the level of public transport available in (say) London, why do people living in & around (say) London use/own cars ?' .... it's the same question to the same problem - and will likely have the same answer ..

    HTH
    Z
    Last edited by zeupater; 28-11-2017 at 3:30 PM. Reason: +vi
    "We are what we repeatedly do, excellence then is not an act, but a habit. " ...... Aristotle
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 28th Nov 17, 3:36 PM
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    Martyn1981
    Couple of articles on a similar theme:

    First solar homes go on sale in £125 million Leeds eco village

    Solar homes to be able to trade energy across Northern Powergrid network under new project
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
    • NigeWick
    • By NigeWick 29th Nov 17, 10:07 AM
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    NigeWick
    Fine if you live in heavily urbanised areas, however if the kettle's on & we need a jar of coffee or a pint of milk some of us would need to wait for at least 20minutes for an autonomous vehicle to arrive even if they were available & despatched immediately!
    Originally posted by zeupater
    How often does that happen to you? Our cupboards are always well stocked and I suspect that people who live way out in the countryside will have even more provisions on hand. I honestly think you're going past extreme with your scenario. There are very few people 20 minutes drive from a market town that will have several vehicles available as taxis are now. And, "ordinary" people that do own autonomous vehicles for hire may well live out in the sticks too.

    I'm not saying you're definitely wrong about this but I certainly think you are.
    The mind of the bigot is like the pupil of the eye; the more light you pour upon it, the more it will contract.
    Oliver Wendell Holmes
    • DanBuskh
    • By DanBuskh 29th Nov 17, 11:07 AM
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    DanBuskh
    Pollution
    Well i am off to Sweden this year, hope i don't face this problem over there.
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 29th Nov 17, 12:57 PM
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    Martyn1981
    The EU is upping its targets.

    EU Energy Committee’s proposal to upgrade 2030 RE target to 35% welcomed

    The European Parliament’s Committee on Industry, Research and Energy (ITRE) has voted on a new binding renewable energy target of 35% by 2030. This represents a considerable improvement from the 27% target set by the latest version of Clean Energy Package 2020-2030, developed by the European Commission. The final version is expected to be released in 2018.
    Furthermore, in a separate vote, they have proposed to lower energy consumption by 40%, and increase energy efficiency, by 2030 at the EU level, thus reflecting greater ambitions than the EU Commission, which proposed a 30% reduction. For the overall goal to be reached, each EU country will have to set its own corresponding national energy-efficiency targets.

    Tougher targets will need higher deployments of RE ..... speaking of which:

    European PV market expected to grow by 35% in 2018 – GTM Research

    European countries such as France, Germany, the Netherlands and Spain are all forecast to be gigawatt-scale markets in 2018. Globally, around 606 GW of new PV capacity is forecast to be installed between 2017 and 2022.
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
    • silverwhistle
    • By silverwhistle 29th Nov 17, 3:55 PM
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    silverwhistle
    How often does that happen to you?
    Originally posted by NigeWick
    I have to say that I agree, I'm not sure it's the best example Z could have chosen. Where I lived in the Italian Alps you'd see people at the local supermarket loading up with packs of long-life milk (yeugh) and more polenta than I'd eat in a year. People adapt to the situation. [ Incidentally, remember you can freeze semi-skimmed milk. :-) ].

    Not having a car until I was 28 and a motorbike for only 2/3 years before that meant different habits and behaviours and definitely better organisation. My mum has never driven, and motorists often forget what a large percentage of households don't have transport. Politicians (particularly right wing ones) are good at ignoring this.
    You'll often see people loading their groceries into taxis at Aldi, Lidl, Waitrose; or into their saddle bags.

    If I were to analyse my own journeys now that I'm retired I'd probably be horrified with the cost I'm prepared to pay for convenience and making up for the inadequacies of Southern Railways..
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