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  • FIRST POST
    • jabbahut40
    • By jabbahut40 21st Dec 13, 8:34 AM
    • 216Posts
    • 51Thanks
    jabbahut40
    JPMorgan Natural Resources -57%!!!! Total meltdown
    • #1
    • 21st Dec 13, 8:34 AM
    JPMorgan Natural Resources -57%!!!! Total meltdown 21st Dec 13 at 8:34 AM
    Hi,

    I bought into JPMorgan Natural Resources in my SIPP at its peak and now currently seeing the value of my investment -48% down. I still believe that commodities will rise in 2014 as China etc continue to pick up pace and to be honest cannot face realising such a big loss. Is anyone else still invested is this fund and if so what are your reasons for staying invested.

    Thanks,

    Jabba
    Last edited by jabbahut40; 20-03-2015 at 6:18 PM.
Page 12
    • Pensionsaver
    • By Pensionsaver 16th Mar 16, 7:48 PM
    • 7 Posts
    • 2 Thanks
    Pensionsaver
    @ gadgetmind


    So you have this platform for your work pension also?


    Any thoughts on funds that look promising, or ones to avoid? How much 'better' do you think it's possible to do by building a 'bespoke' portfolio rather than choosing one of the defaults?


    What do you think of the platform itself? Not the most intuitive or user friendly, I've found. And pretty slow.
    • gadgetmind
    • By gadgetmind 16th Mar 16, 8:13 PM
    • 10,596 Posts
    • 8,368 Thanks
    gadgetmind
    So you have this platform for your work pension also?
    Originally posted by Pensionsaver
    Yes.

    Any thoughts on funds that look promising, or ones to avoid?
    I use a huge slug of "FL Balanced Index Enhanced Fund of Funds" and add a little Blackrock Global (to dilute UK exposure) and Blackrock EM alongside.

    How much 'better' do you think it's possible to do by building a 'bespoke' portfolio rather than choosing one of the defaults?
    Unless you're *very* confident of your ability to make the right decisions, go for an all-in-one fund, write your complex password on a piece of paper, and then swallow the paper.

    What do you think of the platform itself? Not the most intuitive or user friendly, I've found. And pretty slow.
    It's very clunky, devoid of bells and whistles, would be totally unsuitable for a more "retail focussed" platform, but is OK for their typical users.

    I've got a SIPP with BestInvest that holds 1/3 of my pension investments and the rest is with FL. I benchmark my fancy footwork on BestInvest against my "invest and forget" on FL and there isn't much in it after a few years.
    I am not a financial adviser and neither do I play one on television. I might occasionally give bad advice but at least it's free.

    Like all religions, the Faith of the Invisible Pink Unicorns is based upon both logic and faith. We have faith that they are pink; we logically know that they are invisible because we can't see them.
    • Pensionsaver
    • By Pensionsaver 16th Mar 16, 8:40 PM
    • 7 Posts
    • 2 Thanks
    Pensionsaver
    gadgetmind


    I'm curious that you advise to go with an all-in-one (pre-set) option, but don't do so yourself. Why have you not chosen a pre-set option?


    Is your portfolio performing better than the default options?


    I'm genuinely curious - trying to figure all this stuff out.
    • gadgetmind
    • By gadgetmind 16th Mar 16, 9:04 PM
    • 10,596 Posts
    • 8,368 Thanks
    gadgetmind
    I'm curious that you advise to go with an all-in-one (pre-set) option, but don't do so yourself. Why have you not chosen a pre-set option?
    Originally posted by Pensionsaver
    I'm an engineer. :-)

    I also have a lot of UK holdings elsewhere so wanted to dilute UK (this has worked well) and wanted to add some EM (um, let's move on!).

    Is your portfolio performing better than the default options?
    To early to tell but I'd have to say "no evidence to date".
    I am not a financial adviser and neither do I play one on television. I might occasionally give bad advice but at least it's free.

    Like all religions, the Faith of the Invisible Pink Unicorns is based upon both logic and faith. We have faith that they are pink; we logically know that they are invisible because we can't see them.
    • cogito
    • By cogito 19th Mar 16, 2:16 PM
    • 2,106 Posts
    • 3,973 Thanks
    cogito
    IFAs tend to outsource all of this so you get a portfolio that matches attitude to risk (based on whatever understanding of "risk" you might have!) and your investment timescale. .
    Originally posted by gadgetmind


    My IFA did this and the portfolio put forward included funds like Fidelity Emerging Europe Middle East and Africa, Invesco Perpetual Hong Kong and China and a couple of other funds investing in companies I had never heard of. I might have a good appetite for risk but I honestly don't want to be in a fund which has high volatility and may gain or lose 50% in a short space of time.


    I don't have the time or inclination to research individual companies or act on share tips and I am happy to leave this to the fund manager so I regard the manager as the most important choice when selecting where to put my money. Another is whether the manager puts his own money into the fund. This has led me to put money into funds like Fundsmith Equity, Lindsell Train UK Equity and CF Miton Value Opportunities all of which have performed well.


    Surely, the most important part of asset allocation is to put money into the best companies in the world no matter where they are located. My funds bear no resemblance to those put forward by my IFA but their overall performance is vastly superior.
    • masonic
    • By masonic 19th Mar 16, 3:32 PM
    • 9,100 Posts
    • 6,233 Thanks
    masonic
    Surely, the most important part of asset allocation is to put money into the best companies in the world no matter where they are located. My funds bear no resemblance to those put forward by my IFA but their overall performance is vastly superior.
    Originally posted by cogito
    That is the opposite of asset allocation. Asset allocation is the process of picking which asset classes, regions and or sectors within which to invest, no matter which companies or underlying securities they contain.

    What you are describing is stockpicking. The two are not mutually exclusive, because you can set a target asset allocation for a particular sector and then after that pick what you consider to be the best companies within it. But if you try to pick only the best companies available, then you will tend to find that you will tend not to capture a sufficiently diversified mixture to exercise any meaningful asset allocation decisions.

    In general, investors are more likely to positively influence their returns by focusing on their costs and their asset allocation rather than the underlying companies in which they invest.
    • marathonic
    • By marathonic 7th Jul 16, 7:08 PM
    • 1,758 Posts
    • 1,314 Thanks
    marathonic
    UK Smaller Companies 10.78% 10.00%
    SE BAQ UK Equity 14.98% 15.00%
    SE JPM Natural Res 8.30% 10.00%
    SE BAQ European 20.85% 20.00%
    SE BAQ US 15.08% 15.00%
    SE BAQ Pacific Rim 15.03% 15.00%
    SE JPM EMERGING MKTS 14.98% 15.00%


    I done my annual rebalance of my pension fund today - the original and current allocations can be seen above.

    As can be seen, JPM Natural Resources is the only one that really went significantly out of balance - although, at the opposite end of the scale, Europe and UK Smaller Companies did perform well.

    I should be back to my original allocation, also shown above, by the start of next week. This will reallocate some of my best performing holdings to JPM Natural Resources at current prices - which, although low, have proven time and time again to be nowhere near a bottom
    Originally posted by marathonic
    This fund lost a lot between the rebalance above and one I did back in January where I had to buy more units to bring it back up from 7.1% of my portfolio to 10%.

    It seems the averaging down worked and it's increased to a 13.7% allocation as of today, i.e. it's outperformed the rest of my portfolio by a large margin.

    Rather than just drop back to the above allocations, I dropped it back to the 5% it was at a few years ago, increasing my exposure to the US to 20%.

    This fund is just too volatile and anything over a 5% allocation, in my current opinion, is just too much - even for a portfolio as long-term as my own.
    • marathonic
    • By marathonic 12th Jan 17, 12:31 PM
    • 1,758 Posts
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    marathonic
    The fund is up massively in recent times - 106% in the past 12 months. Looks like I'd have done better sticking with my original, higher, allocation (albeit, the decision I made to reduce exposure was still the right one).

    It's currently my best performing fund out of a selection of seven but I'm not overly confident about 2017. I feel that a lot of the anticipated infrastructure spending in the US is already priced in and if the dollar amount that comes to fruition don't match expectations, commodities could be in for a rough ride.
    • Jo Blogs
    • By Jo Blogs 12th Jan 17, 1:07 PM
    • 572 Posts
    • 1,740 Thanks
    Jo Blogs
    Has anyone mentioned factoring a stop loss strategy to fund performance?
    It is perhaps something that needs some thought when investing in funds within a portfolio.
    I set mine @ 10% - Just a thought :-)
    Saved Nitty Gritty £3167.67 [63.36%] / £5000-[May] £348.00 for the 'Save 12k in 2017' #157
    2017 Womble #35 £2548.97 April NSDs 25/25CCCChl 19/52 weeks
    Apl PPChl#002 Pts 209
    • Jo Blogs
    • By Jo Blogs 12th Jan 17, 1:20 PM
    • 572 Posts
    • 1,740 Thanks
    Jo Blogs
    Surely, the most important part of asset allocation is to put money into the best companies in the world no matter where they are located. My funds bear no resemblance to those put forward by my IFA but their overall performance is vastly superior.
    Originally posted by cogito
    Exactly
    Saved Nitty Gritty £3167.67 [63.36%] / £5000-[May] £348.00 for the 'Save 12k in 2017' #157
    2017 Womble #35 £2548.97 April NSDs 25/25CCCChl 19/52 weeks
    Apl PPChl#002 Pts 209
    • marathonic
    • By marathonic 25th Jan 17, 10:04 AM
    • 1,758 Posts
    • 1,314 Thanks
    marathonic
    Has anyone mentioned factoring a stop loss strategy to fund performance?
    It is perhaps something that needs some thought when investing in funds within a portfolio.
    I set mine @ 10% - Just a thought :-)
    Originally posted by Jo Blogs
    I base my decisions on expected long-term performance. For Natural Resources, it's all to do with limited supply, growth in China and imminent US infrastructure spending.

    If I expect long-term performance to be good, the last thing I want to do is sell when the fund drops 10%. If anything, I'd be looking at potential increases to my exposure.
    • Malthusian
    • By Malthusian 25th Jan 17, 11:52 AM
    • 1,879 Posts
    • 2,651 Thanks
    Malthusian
    Has anyone mentioned factoring a stop loss strategy to fund performance?
    It is perhaps something that needs some thought when investing in funds within a portfolio.

    I set mine @ 10% - Just a thought :-)
    Originally posted by Jo Blogs
    A fund like this would be expected to fall by 10%, frequently. What are you going to do with the money when the stop loss activates and you have 90% of your investment sitting in cash?

    If you don't know or the answer is "leave it in cash" you are almost guaranteeing yourself a loss of 10% over an unknown timeframe.

    If your plan is to buy back in once it falls by 20% or 30%, what if it never does - if there's a blip of -11% and then it recovers and keeps on climbing? At what point do you cut your losses and buy back in at a higher price than you sold it for?

    Stop losses are a great way to violate Warren Buffet's rule no. 1 - "don't lose money".
    • Linton
    • By Linton 25th Jan 17, 12:28 PM
    • 7,499 Posts
    • 7,248 Thanks
    Linton
    Has anyone mentioned factoring a stop loss strategy to fund performance?
    It is perhaps something that needs some thought when investing in funds within a portfolio.
    I set mine @ 10% - Just a thought :-)
    Originally posted by Jo Blogs
    Stop losses make some sense if you are investing in individual shares because there is the possibility that the company may go bust losing you everything. The chance of a mainstream fund going bust or even to a permanently low value is more or less zero. So there isnt the same justification for a stop loss. Whatever the current value of a fund is, at some point in time it will be exceeded. If you didnt believe that to be the case you shouldnt invest in the fund. So I dont see any justification for stop losses for funds.

    If you believed a fund was investing in at the price you bought surely, unless the world has changed drastically in the meantime, a fall in value is an indication you should buy some more rather than sell the units you have.
    • gadgetmind
    • By gadgetmind 11th Apr 17, 3:10 PM
    • 10,596 Posts
    • 8,368 Thanks
    gadgetmind
    A fund like this would be expected to fall by 10%, frequently. What are you going to do with the money when the stop loss activates and you have 90% of your investment sitting in cash?
    Originally posted by Malthusian
    Well, quite. Imagine buying a house and then straight away telling the estate agent to put it back on the market for 90% of what you paid and take the first offer.
    I am not a financial adviser and neither do I play one on television. I might occasionally give bad advice but at least it's free.

    Like all religions, the Faith of the Invisible Pink Unicorns is based upon both logic and faith. We have faith that they are pink; we logically know that they are invisible because we can't see them.
    • sabretoothtigger
    • By sabretoothtigger 18th Apr 17, 5:44 PM
    • 9,985 Posts
    • 6,590 Thanks
    sabretoothtigger
    If its an active fund so management is already selling and taking profits hopefully ?

    I took - BGF World Mining D4RF GBP
    BlackRock Global Funds - World Mining Fund D4RF GBP (GBP)

    Because its discounted to its own assets and those are companies reasonable to hold in a portfolio I think
    Tokyo residential prices have gone from 4x London in 1990 to ¼ London in 2014
    Maybe this is one of those cases where you can’t go home again,
    by Ben S. Bernanke, former Fed chairman
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