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  • FIRST POST
    • zeupater
    • By zeupater 7th Jan 13, 5:36 PM
    • 3,577Posts
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    zeupater
    Solar ... In the news
    • #1
    • 7th Jan 13, 5:36 PM
    Solar ... In the news 7th Jan 13 at 5:36 PM
    Hi All

    Thought it was about time we had a thread specifically to discuss relevant press articles relating to solar pv & thermal ..... so here goes ...

    Z
    Last edited by zeupater; 07-01-2013 at 5:48 PM.
    "We are what we repeatedly do, excellence then is not an act, but a habit. " ...... Aristotle
Page 88
    • silverwhistle
    • By silverwhistle 1st Jun 17, 11:35 PM
    • 1,451 Posts
    • 1,904 Thanks
    silverwhistle
    Not if you have ways to store it, or markets/processes that grow to make use of cheap leccy.
    Originally posted by Martyn1981
    An amusing conceit there M. :-) At least it's a change from the nuclear proponents who go on about we haven't got enough power and 'how are we going to power all the electric vehicles?'

    They always talk as if every EV is going to be charged up fully every day and that that is an inflexible demand. In fact with longer ranges and hybrids charging becomes much more discretionary. The range anxiety of the earlier models reduces and users can wait to take advantage of the cheaper surpluses. I suspect using their batteries as a feed back to grid mechanism still doesn't make sense due to battery life issues, but more dynamic pricing and deferring charging will be much easier.

    I don't think some people appreciate the flexibility built in to the new systems. Behavioural change by those of us with PV has only just started (DHW storage, phasing major appliance usage, efficiency improvements, etc.).

    Seasonality issues arise, but that's where wind takes over, and the same mechanisms will apply there too.
    • michaels
    • By michaels 2nd Jun 17, 7:38 AM
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    michaels
    I don't think using car batteries for storage is as problematical as people think. Experience seems to show that it is using batteries to their wxtremes 100% full or 0% that causes degredation, cycles between say 80% and 20% it appears have negligible impact on battery life.

    This means the owner of a 200 mile range ev who generally only travels 60 miles a day has plenty of scope to use part of the battery capacity as storage on the days where they are only doing shorter journeys and can opt out and fully charge if they do need the 200 miles on specific days.
    Cool heads and compromise
    • silverwhistle
    • By silverwhistle 2nd Jun 17, 9:47 AM
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    silverwhistle
    I honestly don't know, battery technology is changing so rapidly! But there needs to be some commercial or political driver to make things happen, and that's where we seem to be lacking at the moment.

    But your second paragraph is exactly my point, and even deferring charging is going to help the grid.
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 6th Jun 17, 6:39 PM
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    Martyn1981
    Interesting idea here, it's basically offering a PPA (power purchase agreement) to housing association properties to lower their energy bills.

    If it scales up it could potentially double the current UK PV rollout, which is really poor.

    Solarplicity readies significant low-subsidy housing association solar model
    Just 'call me Mart'. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (2.4 ESE & 1.18 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 7th Jun 17, 7:06 PM
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    Martyn1981
    Trump keeps digging coal, but wants solar on the wall with Mexico

    Donald Trump was heard to suggest the use of solar panels to repay the cost of building an anti-immigrant wall with Mexico in a conversation with congressional leaders, according to CNN citing sources familiar with the matter.
    President Trump, on the other hand, has also dismissed solar as unreliable and unworkable, as well as having removed any reference to solar from the White House website.
    Words escape me!
    Just 'call me Mart'. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (2.4 ESE & 1.18 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 12th Jun 17, 1:52 PM
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    Martyn1981
    Potential subsidy free supply side PV could be on the horizon. The rise of power purchase agreements (PPA's) where the leccy is sold directly from generator to consumer, seems to be working well. The price is above wholesale, but below retail, win win, unless you are a leccy supply company losing turnover.

    NextEnergy sets sights on subsidy-free solar with development project purchase
    Just 'call me Mart'. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (2.4 ESE & 1.18 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 15th Jun 17, 8:15 AM
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    Martyn1981
    If only ......
    If only we had a government that was willing to support PV in the UK. The costs are still falling, and had the industry not been destroyed by government policy in 2015/16 then we may well be seeing cheaper demand and supply side PV.

    The current UK PV farms contracts issued at £80/MWh in 2015 (now £83-£85) are 'like so 2015' now.

    German auction prices were similar in 2015 (about €91/MWh) but have kept falling in auction after auction, they are now down to €57/MWh (£50/MWh).

    Germany’s auction for large-scale solar concludes with average price of €0.0566/kWh

    The government/NAO estimate UK wholesale leccy prices going above £50/MWh in 2020, peaking at £70/MWh in 2027, before dropping to £60/MWh in 2035.

    So £50 PV in the UK would go subsidy free from 2020 onwards. In fact if PV was installed at £50 today, and top up's it got under the CfD mechanism before 2020, could well be paid back from the return of any income above £50 later on. So possibly net subsidy free today.

    Whilst I'd rather see PV installed on the demand side, rather than the supply side, this government's approach means that too little is being installed anywhere, and that's also preventing prices from falling as far as they should for all sides of the industry.
    Just 'call me Mart'. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (2.4 ESE & 1.18 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
    • NigeWick
    • By NigeWick 15th Jun 17, 9:18 AM
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    NigeWick
    Martyn,
    I keep having a dig at my MP but he is resisting so far. I'll know I'm getting to him when he (his staff more likely) stops answering my e-mails.
    The mind of the bigot is like the pupil of the eye; the more light you pour upon it, the more it will contract.
    Oliver Wendell Holmes
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 15th Jun 17, 11:57 AM
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    Martyn1981
    Martyn,
    I keep having a dig at my MP but he is resisting so far. I'll know I'm getting to him when he (his staff more likely) stops answering my e-mails.
    Originally posted by NigeWick
    Weird isn't it. Potentially subsidy free (net subsidy free) on-shore wind and PV today, or new nuclear in 10yrs time receiving approx £40/MWh in subsidies for 35yrs = £1bn pa, just for Hinkley Point C.

    HPC would add 7% of our leccy, whilst RE has gone from 5% to 25% in the last 10yrs, and should be accelerating, with more generation for the same money, or the same generation for less money.

    The CfD results from April's auction should be out in September, if off-shore wind goes sub HPC (for 2021 delivery and 15yr subsidy) the government is going to have trouble explaining any more nuclear unless a far cheaper deal materialises.
    Just 'call me Mart'. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (2.4 ESE & 1.18 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
    • ed110220
    • By ed110220 15th Jun 17, 3:01 PM
    • 1,043 Posts
    • 532 Thanks
    ed110220
    Weird isn't it. Potentially subsidy free (net subsidy free) on-shore wind and PV today, or new nuclear in 10yrs time receiving approx £40/MWh in subsidies for 35yrs = £1bn pa, just for Hinkley Point C.

    HPC would add 7% of our leccy, whilst RE has gone from 5% to 25% in the last 10yrs, and should be accelerating, with more generation for the same money, or the same generation for less money.

    The CfD results from April's auction should be out in September, if off-shore wind goes sub HPC (for 2021 delivery and 15yr subsidy) the government is going to have trouble explaining any more nuclear unless a far cheaper deal materialises.
    Originally posted by Martyn1981
    Perplexing isn't it? Also interesting is BP's world energy review of 2016 which shows nuclear showing by far the smallest year on year increase in output of all low carbon energy sources and also the worst performance over a longer period. They break them down into oil, gas, coal, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables. In fact only coal, which has actually declined, is worse.

    If nuclear still makes sense anywhere it is in China where a large state involvement in the economy gives such capital intensive and long term investment projects as nuclear power stations more of an advantage. But even in China non hydro renewables are growing faster.
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 17th Jun 17, 1:44 PM
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    Martyn1981
    Some world wide information.

    1. Wind and solar to ‘dominate’ future of electricity by 2040

    Renewable energy is indeed the future, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s latest report, which forecasts technologies such as wind and solar to “dominate” the future of electricity by 2040, making up 48% of the world’s installed capacity and 34% of electricity generation.

    “This year’s report suggests that the greening of the world’s electricity system is unstoppable, thanks to rapidly falling costs for solar and wind power, and a growing role for batteries, including those in electric vehicles, in balancing supply and demand,” said Seb Henbest, lead author of NEO 2017 at BNEF.

    Renewable energy-generated electricity will rise 169% by 2040, and reach 74% penetration in Germany, 38% in the US, 55% in China and 49% in India.
    Quick run through of the graph suggests a change from 2016 to 2040 of:
    Fossil fuels moving from 64% to 39%
    Solar and Wind, 6% to 34%
    Other renewables, 20% to 17%
    Nuclear, 10% to 9%


    2. BNEF: Coal to fade as cost of renewables falls even faster

    The latest long-term forecast from analysts Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) predicts solar energy costs to drop a further 66% by 2040, and onshore wind by 47%. Given these predictions, BNEF expect that renewables will undercut the majority of fossil based generation by 2030, even in India and China.
    And a great result for all those countries that supported the FiT scheme and helped to get the ball rolling on solar:-

    BNEF’s report predicts that global emissions to peak in 2026 and then start to fall, as coal fired power starts to fizzle out in India and China. The former country’s speed in adopting solar as a mainstream power source led BNEF to adjust its outlook for India’s emissions down by 44% over the 2016 New Energy Outlook.
    Just 'call me Mart'. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (2.4 ESE & 1.18 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 21st Jun 17, 2:08 PM
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    Martyn1981
    You know there's something wrong with the UK government's policy towards PV, when Australian households are getting 6.3p to 9.7p/kWh, and the UK which needs 6p, gets 4p.

    Australian utility increases solar feed-in tariff
    Just 'call me Mart'. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (2.4 ESE & 1.18 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 22nd Jun 17, 5:51 PM
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    Martyn1981
    Some good news for PV in the UK, but the headline hides the fact that it may be a couple of years away.

    UK solar market resurgent as attentions turn to post-subsidy business models

    Housing associations, new builds and PPA's could come in subsidy free, or low subsidy if we (in the UK) start to see the 40c/Wp PV that's beginning to roll out.

    Fingers crossed, as this could mean PV and both on and off shore wind heading for around £50/MWh over the next 5-10yrs, lower than the expected wholesale price of £60(ish).
    Just 'call me Mart'. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (2.4 ESE & 1.18 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
    • Dave Fowler
    • By Dave Fowler 23rd Jun 17, 3:14 PM
    • 430 Posts
    • 758 Thanks
    Dave Fowler
    Domestic battery power storage
    I've just been talking to a guy from Power Vault about battery storage. This came about because I'd contacted my energy supplier to see if they had any deals for people with solar panels.

    He was quite up-front in saying the savings would be around £150 p.a. if I just had a set of (4kWh) batteries. He went on to say that Tonik, my energy supplier, are hoping to introduce a 'smart storage tariff' later this year - similar to economy 7 I understand - where the batteries would also be charged off the grid during the night. Using this tariff he said the savings could be £250. He said that they would need to do proper calculations using my actual usage pattern before a more accurate figure could be given.

    Power Vault are also in consultations with the power network generators to see if they can set up a 'smart grid' where the uk grid operators would have control of the battery storage and switch it on remotely to generate whenever there was high demand on the grid; a sort of distributed storage system. They were working towards a payment of about £450 per year for the privilege of having this control over a domestic system.

    I wasn't certain what he meant about the pricing, when he gave me the following information - not sure if the prices were for complete battery + inverter systems or just the battery section.

    He said they were currently offering a lead-acid battery system for around £2500 (a 3 year guaranteed battery life) and a Lithium Ion system for £4500 (this is also a 4kWh system with a battery life of at least 5 years).

    They are also about to sign an agreement with Nissan and Renault to use the old batteries from EV cars. He expected that even at today's rate of used batteries coming on line, that this may reduce the system cost by 30% in the autumn of this year.

    With a possible saving of £250 a year with a £4500 battery lasting only 5 years, the prices just do not 'add up'. He agreed that currently the costs are too high to make any payback possible and the systems were aimed at those who just want to go 'green' no matter what the cost.

    Dave F
    Solar PV System 1: 2.96kWp South+8 degrees. Roof 38 degrees. 'Normal' system
    Solar PV System 2: 3.00kWp South-4 degrees. Roof 28 degrees. SolarEdge system
    Location: Bedfordshire
    • gefnew
    • By gefnew 23rd Jun 17, 9:58 PM
    • 36 Posts
    • 46 Thanks
    gefnew
    HPC Audit commission review
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40372613
    what do you all think
    regards
    gefnew
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 26th Jun 17, 8:02 AM
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    Martyn1981
    HPC Audit commission review
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40372613
    what do you all think
    regards
    gefnew
    Originally posted by gefnew
    I have strong views on this (no ...... really!)

    I'm not 100% against nuclear, it's cleaner than coal and low carbon, and as part of a mix, it takes some of the pressure off balancing supply and demand and storage - BUT!

    It has to be economic, and in this context (money saving), that means compares favourably with the alternatives, which would be RE, or perhaps RE + storage + the cost of gas capacity.*

    * That's additional gas capacity v's nuclear, but not the cost of gas generation, as this would be the same (RE v's nuclear), it's just that we'd need more gas capacity due to the variability of RE.

    I'd also argue from the green & ethical side that nuclear needs to be more than just comparable to RE on cost, as I'd personally be willing to pay a premium to avoid nuclear, but that's not an economic argument that I can impose on everyone, so I think the MSE element trumps the G&E part on here (for now).


    When the HPC deal was announced in 2012 it wasn't good, but I don't think it was terrible. It compared favourably against off-shore wind contracts at the time, was similar to on-shore wind, and ahead of PV. However there is a massive, gargantuan problem with those comparisons, those are RE costs in 2012, with rapidly falling cost curves, and 15yr subsidy deals allowing for rapid replacement, v's the 35yr deal for HPC, which would not start for about 15yrs (v's 2012).

    By 2016 when the deal was reviewed, we already had PV and on-shore wind contracts at £80/MWh (whilst HPC's £92.50 needed 3yrs of inflation added to it), and off-shore wind contracts were now being issued at £120/MWh v's the £160 from 2012.

    Today, we have Scotttish Renewables advising that some on-shore wind is now possible at £50/MWh, we have German PV contracts now at £50/MWh (€57/MWh), and they are very comparable to the UK, as they were issuing €91 contracts when we issued £80.

    Off-shore contracts in the April CfD (results Sept) are widely reported to be at (or below) HPC prices, in fact these contracts for delivery in 2021 had a bid max cap of £105/MWh (HPC now about £100/MWh).

    The government has reducing bid caps for future contracts of £100, and £85 (for mid to late 2020 delivery, similar to HPC delivery date). The importance of this can not be understated - the future CfD auctions for off-shore wind, for delivery around the time HPC comes on line, will have a bid max of £85/MWh, v's the £92.50 for HPC (I believe they base figures on 2012). So our own government expects bids to be below £85/MWh for off-shore wind.

    Again, worth repeating that the RE contracts are for 15yrs, with expectations (common sense) suggesting that new contracts at that point in time will be even cheaper, but HPC is a 35yr deal.

    Due to falling estimations (by the NAO) of future wholesale prices, the estimated subsidy for HPC has risen from £6bn to £30bn. This may seem hard to believe in just 4yrs (2012 estimate v's 2016) but it's quite simple:
    Previously the were comparing the £92.50/MWh subsidy against a wholesale price reaching £85/MWh in 2030, so around £7/MWh subsidy top up on average.

    By 2016 they had reduced the estimated future price peak to £70 in 2027, and £60 by 2035, so around £32/MWh subsidy top up.

    The revised prices reflect the lower RE costs, and the amount of functioning RE generation still in operation, but having fallen out of subsidy (such as PV and on-shore wind farms still generating well, but into yr 16 when subsidies have ended).


    So that's the basic facts.
    Just 'call me Mart'. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (2.4 ESE & 1.18 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 26th Jun 17, 8:20 AM
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    Martyn1981
    Personal views and thoughts suggestions on HPC and the deal.

    I'm certain now that on-shore wind and PV can provide leccy at a vastly lower price, even after allowing for storage costs.

    Tucson have just issued contracts for PV + storage at $45/MWh. Even if we assume the PV costs twice as much in the UK (lower generation, but not half as bad) and we double the storage cost (just for fun) then that's $90/MWh, or about £70/MWh v's £100/MWh for HPC in todays monies.

    EOS sell grid scale storage at $160/kWh (for 40MWh+ deals), which at 5,000+ cycles works out at a storage cost of $32/MWh, or $16/MWh if we assume 50% of generation needs storage. So that would lift UK PV (or on-shore wind) costs by about £12/MWh. Giving us a PV or on-shore wind price (with storage) heading for about £62/MWh.

    EOS have just announced that they will contract for 2022 delivery their batteries at $95/kWh (not the $160/kWh mentioned above), taking my estimated PV or on-shore wind plus storage price down to £57/MWh.

    There is a lot of talk about SMR's (small modular reactors) and Thorium reactors, that could provide much cheaper nuclear generation, but these will need a lot of investment monies.

    Well, the electricity from HPC over 35yrs will cost approx £90bn. But if that could be delivered at roughly half the price from wind and PV, then that would free up £45bn ...... that's £45bn ..... that's £45,000,000,000 for research and investment into Thorium and SMR's, and we'd still have the same amount of leccy, even if the research projects generated nothing!

    The Guardian ran a similar article, which on day one received a huge number of posts from individuals speaking out against HPC. But by day two, the usual 5-10 (nuclear at any price) posters then flooded the comments with mis-information and spin against renewables, and support for HPC (not support for nuclear, which is not yet completely unreasonable), but support for HPC.

    Spending watchdog condemns 'risky and expensive' Hinkley Point

    One comment I found particularly funny, mentioning how S.Korea has cheaper nuclear and a large proportion of generation from nuclear. However the commentator seemed to have missed the very recent news that S. Korea has announced going nuclear free due to the costs, and the fact that the population neither like nor trust nuclear generation.

    So those are my thoughts and estimations, as opposed to straight facts today.

    Anyone else?
    Last edited by Martyn1981; Yesterday at 11:46 AM.
    Just 'call me Mart'. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (2.4 ESE & 1.18 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
    • NigeWick
    • By NigeWick 26th Jun 17, 9:15 AM
    • 2,661 Posts
    • 966 Thanks
    NigeWick
    I'm not 100% against nuclear, it's cleaner than coal and low carbon, and as part of a mix, it takes some of the pressure off balancing supply and demand and storage
    Originally posted by Martyn1981
    I am 100% against nuclear if for no other reason than the ongoing cost of decommissioning and storing the waste. Then as I've said before, there is the unlikely but real threat to our energy security if there's an accident or (cyber) attack by morons. I am a great believer in local generation and storage. Still too expensive for most people but by the time HPC comes on line (if it ever does) I suspect solar & batteries/V2G will be competitive.
    The mind of the bigot is like the pupil of the eye; the more light you pour upon it, the more it will contract.
    Oliver Wendell Holmes
    • lstar337
    • By lstar337 26th Jun 17, 9:55 AM
    • 3,094 Posts
    • 1,631 Thanks
    lstar337
    There is a lot of talk about SMR's (small modular reactors) and Thorium reactors, that could provide much cheaper nuclear generation, but these will need a lot of investment monies.
    Originally posted by Martyn1981
    I think the real trick with Thorium reactors is that they can burn up our stockpile of nuclear waste. Cheaper generation is good of course, but the UK's record with storing waste isn't that great, and any option that allows us to get rid of some of it is brilliant in my opinion. Plus, since we already have waste trading deals in place (swapping our larger quantities of low level waste for smaller quantities of high level waste), it could only benefit us to be able to burn up that waste and generate electricity at the same time.

    SMR's may help with generation, but I'm not really interested if they are just miniaturised PWR's.
    • Martyn1981
    • By Martyn1981 26th Jun 17, 11:28 AM
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    • 9,471 Thanks
    Martyn1981
    I am 100% against nuclear if for no other reason than the ongoing cost of decommissioning and storing the waste. Then as I've said before, there is the unlikely but real threat to our energy security if there's an accident or (cyber) attack by morons. I am a great believer in local generation and storage. Still too expensive for most people but by the time HPC comes on line (if it ever does) I suspect solar & batteries/V2G will be competitive.
    Originally posted by NigeWick
    TBH it upsets me a bit that I can't quite say I'm 100% against nuclear yet. I'm certainly 90% against (and 100% against HPC), but if the more rational pro-nuclear commentators are correct, and £50/MWh nuclear is possible, then that would help with the CO2 issue. But as fast as 'cheap' nuclear is being suggested - Westinghouse APR's, S. Korean nuclear industry, Thorium and SMR's, we seem to hear bad news too - unpopular in S. Korea and France with the public, Westinghouse bust, Thorium still not delivering*.

    So I'm quietly confident that nuclear will not offer an economical contribution going forward. And neither is BNEF with their prediction of a very small growth in nuclear generation to 2040, leading to an actual reduction in the percentage of worldwide generation from 10% down to 9%, due to the rise in total leccy consumption (wind and solar grow from 6% today to 34% by 2040).

    I'm looking forward to the day I can say 100%, just like you, and on a purely personal level, I'm there already.

    * A Navitron forumite who was working in the nuclear fusion industry has now changed jobs due to drop in funding, which may impact Thorium too. Basically, whilst both solutions may come to fruition eventually, it's looking like they won't be competitive against RE in the future. So nice solution to 'old school' nuclear fission, but too late to compete against the new energy revolution that has swept in.
    Just 'call me Mart'. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (2.4 ESE & 1.18 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
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