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  • FIRST POST
    • bery_451
    • By bery_451 1st Sep 17, 6:20 PM
    • 973Posts
    • 27Thanks
    bery_451
    When will 1GBP be worth 1.20 Euros?
    • #1
    • 1st Sep 17, 6:20 PM
    When will 1GBP be worth 1.20 Euros? 1st Sep 17 at 6:20 PM
    Hi,

    Pound is at all time low now against EURO, however I believe value will steadily climb from here back to 1.20EURO levels? If so when do you guys thinks it will be worth that?

    2019 is Brexit, Surely the GBP can't keep on crashing until then? If so at this declining rate 1 will be worth 0.50 Euros
Page 2
    • jimjames
    • By jimjames 2nd Sep 17, 6:37 PM
    • 12,009 Posts
    • 10,449 Thanks
    jimjames
    I do wonder sometimes if bankers, traders etc outside the EU really understand what the EU is, what Brexit is, how it works
    Originally posted by mark5
    I think many in the UK would like to know the same and when the most searched term the day after the result was "what is the EU" it might suggest a lot of people don't understand either.
    Remember the saying: if it looks too good to be true it almost certainly is.
    • ColdIron
    • By ColdIron 2nd Sep 17, 6:46 PM
    • 3,376 Posts
    • 3,950 Thanks
    ColdIron
    Indeed, I wonder how many could name just 3 of the 7 presidents of the European Union (without googling) or even the institutions that they are presidents of
    • Chaykin
    • By Chaykin 2nd Sep 17, 6:55 PM
    • 69 Posts
    • 36 Thanks
    Chaykin
    I'd say never.
    • dividendhero
    • By dividendhero 2nd Sep 17, 7:37 PM
    • 94 Posts
    • 68 Thanks
    dividendhero
    Indeed, I wonder how many could name just 3 of the 7 presidents of the European Union (without googling) or even the institutions that they are presidents of
    Originally posted by ColdIron
    Likewise most people in the UK wouldn't be able to name the leaders of the UN or NATO, which is why such important and complex decisions shouldn't be left to people more used to voting contestants to be kicked of X-factor
    • Gambler101
    • By Gambler101 2nd Sep 17, 8:44 PM
    • 497 Posts
    • 1,226 Thanks
    Gambler101
    All this talk of not getting trade deals. As a net importer surely we will benefit the worse the deal gets?
    The instructions on the box said 'Requires Windows 7 or better'. So I installed LINUX
    • Gadfium
    • By Gadfium 2nd Sep 17, 9:45 PM
    • 624 Posts
    • 1,159 Thanks
    Gadfium
    Indeed, I wonder how many could name just 3 of the 7 presidents of the European Union (without googling) or even the institutions that they are presidents of
    Originally posted by ColdIron
    There's almost certainly a huge number of people that couldn't name the leaders of the political parties in the UK, nevermind the EU.

    All this talk of not getting trade deals. As a net importer surely we will benefit the worse the deal gets?
    Originally posted by Gambler101
    I can't see that at all. Trade barriers or tariffs will impact our exports. )Tariffs will also mean a lot more paperwork and redtape on our imports. The much-vaunted replacement for the current Customs system, CHIEF, is already understaffed and it is anticipated that it will need to handle 255 million transactions after BREXIT. The trouble is that it was designed to handle 150 million. And we still have no idea what the paperwork behind those transactions will look like at this stage. A very bumpy road lies ahead.
    • JohnRo
    • By JohnRo 2nd Sep 17, 9:59 PM
    • 2,424 Posts
    • 2,178 Thanks
    JohnRo
    Our problem is the exporters that underpin the value of the pound - like car manufacturers, depend on components flowing freely back and forth across the channel...
    Originally posted by Glen Clark
    That and their clandestine backstop 'guarantees and assurances' from HMG.

    A very bumpy road lies ahead.
    Originally posted by Gadfium
    'It'll be fine'
    'We don't need to be smarter than the rest; we need to be more disciplined than the rest.' - WB
    • Gadfium
    • By Gadfium 3rd Sep 17, 11:20 AM
    • 624 Posts
    • 1,159 Thanks
    Gadfium
    'It'll be fine'
    Originally posted by JohnRo

    "Strong and stable"
    "Imaginative and flexible"

    • EachPenny
    • By EachPenny 3rd Sep 17, 1:53 PM
    • 2,086 Posts
    • 2,914 Thanks
    EachPenny
    Our problem is the exporters that underpin the value of the pound - like car manufacturers, depend on components flowing freely back and forth across the channel. The thought of foreign customs officers being able to bring their production lines to a halt is enough to give everyone the jitters.
    Originally posted by Glen Clark
    But who owns the companies like the car manufacturers? I don't anticipate the likes of BMW being too chuffed if their production lines are affected by the petty dictats of a foreign customs officer.

    Sure, BMW could switch production of the mini to Spain or Hungary, but at what cost to the brand? What happens if UK consumers then decide to boycott BMW (for example). These and many other issues will be carefully considered by the industrialists.... and if it looks like political games are likely to pose a real threat to continued trade then you can bet your pound that the industrialists will be having strong words with the politicians.

    World trade is an extremely complex beast... it is not as simple as saying "we're leaving the EU, our economy will be screwed." - however much some people love saying it.
    "In the future, everyone will be rich for 15 minutes"
    • atush
    • By atush 3rd Sep 17, 6:17 PM
    • 16,241 Posts
    • 9,911 Thanks
    atush
    They sell more to us, then we do to them.

    So they will need to make some sort of deal, sooner rather than later.
    • Gadfium
    • By Gadfium 3rd Sep 17, 8:17 PM
    • 624 Posts
    • 1,159 Thanks
    Gadfium
    They sell more to us, then we do to them.

    So they will need to make some sort of deal, sooner rather than later.
    Originally posted by atush
    Thats the wrong way of looking at it. Comparing their trade to us as a percentage of our trade to them is pointless. You need to look at their trade to us as a percentage of the total EU trade. The UK makes up somewhere between 8 and 18% of EU total exports. In comparison, the UK exports something like 44% of it's total exports to the EU.

    We need them a hell of a lot more than they need the UK.


    https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/
    • jimjames
    • By jimjames 3rd Sep 17, 8:25 PM
    • 12,009 Posts
    • 10,449 Thanks
    jimjames
    All this talk of not getting trade deals. As a net importer surely we will benefit the worse the deal gets?
    Originally posted by Gambler101
    Funny how prior to 2016 no-one was bothered about trade deals. I certainly can't remember any conversation in the pub along the lines of "you know what, I wish we had better trade deals with China".

    If Germany can export so much to non EU countries it would suggest that the problem with us not doing so is a UK issue not due to EU.
    Remember the saying: if it looks too good to be true it almost certainly is.
    • dividendhero
    • By dividendhero 3rd Sep 17, 8:43 PM
    • 94 Posts
    • 68 Thanks
    dividendhero

    If Germany can export so much to non EU countries it would suggest that the problem with us not doing so is a UK issue not due to EU.
    Originally posted by jimjames
    Germany is certainly a formidable exporter - they're accumulating a surplus of several billion euro a week, while UK is stuck in deficit. Germany manages to sell for more than UK into what should be "our markets", eg they export far more to Oz than UK does.

    It's not only Germany though, Belguim exports more to India does - despite having virtually no historical or cultural ties.

    UK should have sorted out it's chronic trade deficit BEFORE jeopardising around half it's exports
    • JohnRo
    • By JohnRo 3rd Sep 17, 11:56 PM
    • 2,424 Posts
    • 2,178 Thanks
    JohnRo
    They sell more to us, then we do to them.

    So they will need to make some sort of deal, sooner rather than later.
    Originally posted by atush
    This sounds a lot like 'they can't afford not to give us what we want...'

    I'm not sure whether good luck with that or God help us is the appropriate response.

    When you kick someone in the nuts and then hold out your hand, don't be surprised when they refuse to shake it.
    'We don't need to be smarter than the rest; we need to be more disciplined than the rest.' - WB
    • Glen Clark
    • By Glen Clark 4th Sep 17, 9:36 AM
    • 3,824 Posts
    • 2,793 Thanks
    Glen Clark
    At the risk of stating the obvious the other 27 countries of the EU are not going to give us a better deal out than we had when we were in, or everyone else would leave.
    So Boris will come back from Brussels with a dogs dinner and, aided by the Tory press, present it as a good deal for Britain.
    The notion we have to leave because thats what people voted for has a big flaw. The reality is nobody will get what they voted for because those who voted to leave were promised, and voted for, things they can't have.
    So the best thing to do would be to accept that, and remain in the EU until we can have a properly informed vote.
    It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it. --Upton Sinclair
    • Glen Clark
    • By Glen Clark 4th Sep 17, 9:43 AM
    • 3,824 Posts
    • 2,793 Thanks
    Glen Clark
    They sell more to us, then we do to them.
    Originally posted by atush
    Yes but do we need what they sell more than they need what we sell?
    We no longer have the industries to produce much of the things we need.
    Politics invariably triumphs over economics anyway - EU officials will do whats best for them to keep the EU gravy train running and their cushy jobs.
    It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it. --Upton Sinclair
    • JohnRo
    • By JohnRo 4th Sep 17, 9:45 AM
    • 2,424 Posts
    • 2,178 Thanks
    JohnRo
    You can be certain of one thing, all the problems the idiocy delivers will the fault of the EU.. again.
    'We don't need to be smarter than the rest; we need to be more disciplined than the rest.' - WB
    • Glen Clark
    • By Glen Clark 4th Sep 17, 9:49 AM
    • 3,824 Posts
    • 2,793 Thanks
    Glen Clark
    Germany is certainly a formidable exporter - they're accumulating a surplus of several billion euro a week, while UK is stuck in deficit. Germany manages to sell for more than UK into what should be "our markets", eg they export far more to Oz than UK does.

    It's not only Germany though, Belguim exports more to India does - despite having virtually no historical or cultural ties.

    UK should have sorted out it's chronic trade deficit BEFORE jeopardising around half it's exports
    Originally posted by dividendhero
    Germany's state pension is 3 times that of Britain too - and we are borrowing to pay that...
    It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it. --Upton Sinclair
    • Voyager2002
    • By Voyager2002 4th Sep 17, 9:51 AM
    • 11,572 Posts
    • 7,826 Thanks
    Voyager2002
    When something hits all time low surely it cant get lower unless the is hopeless.
    Originally posted by bery_451
    I am still waiting for the Zimbabwe dollar to go back to being worth the same as the US dollar. When that happens I will be very rich!
    • Aretnap
    • By Aretnap 4th Sep 17, 10:59 AM
    • 2,720 Posts
    • 2,163 Thanks
    Aretnap
    I am still waiting for the Zimbabwe dollar to go back to being worth the same as the US dollar. When that happens I will be very rich!
    Originally posted by Voyager2002
    I remember reading a book about the German hyperinflation in the 1920s - there were actually people who hoarded billion mark banknotes thinking that when things "returned to normal" they'd somehow be rich beyond their wildest dreams.

    It's not really any different to the notion that because the pound has lost value that it will somehow, by some irresistible force of nature, have to regain that value in future.
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