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  • FIRST POST
    • re14796
    • By re14796 19th Mar 17, 8:20 PM
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    re14796
    Will banks leave the UK?
    • #1
    • 19th Mar 17, 8:20 PM
    Will banks leave the UK? 19th Mar 17 at 8:20 PM
    UPS, hsbc, JP Morgan are saying they will move jobs out of the UK, Is this true? Or is this just a threat to get the government to get a better deal and not press for a hard brexit. Is the financial sector a good sector to work in still?
Page 1
    • DCFC79
    • By DCFC79 19th Mar 17, 8:24 PM
    • 29,359 Posts
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    DCFC79
    • #2
    • 19th Mar 17, 8:24 PM
    • #2
    • 19th Mar 17, 8:24 PM
    UPS, hsbc, JP Morgan are saying they will move jobs out of the UK, Is this true? Or is this just a threat to get the government to get a better deal and not press for a hard brexit. Is the financial sector a good sector to work in still?
    Originally posted by re14796
    Who knows whats going to happen.
    Je Suis Charlie
    • Masomnia
    • By Masomnia 19th Mar 17, 8:26 PM
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    Masomnia
    • #3
    • 19th Mar 17, 8:26 PM
    • #3
    • 19th Mar 17, 8:26 PM
    No one knows.

    I've little doubt some jobs will go, but I can't see any large banks moving entirely. Time will tell though...
    “I could see that, if not actually disgruntled, he was far from being gruntled.” - P.G. Wodehouse
    • Marktheshark
    • By Marktheshark 19th Mar 17, 8:32 PM
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    Marktheshark
    • #4
    • 19th Mar 17, 8:32 PM
    • #4
    • 19th Mar 17, 8:32 PM
    The majority will just have to make it clear they will move all their deposits (the money banks need to make money)
    To a bank that will support the UK in its new future.
    Brexit will become whatever they invent it to be.
    • Hedgehog99
    • By Hedgehog99 19th Mar 17, 8:44 PM
    • 1,190 Posts
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    Hedgehog99
    • #5
    • 19th Mar 17, 8:44 PM
    • #5
    • 19th Mar 17, 8:44 PM
    They might use Brexit as a cover-story for personnel changes they were going to do anyway (due to increased automation / computerisation etc).

    The lure of Sterling is too strong to leave altogether, but the banks who cut branches will lose the faithful who prefer banking in person and who like to know there'll be a branch in any town they visit.
    • jadziad
    • By jadziad 19th Mar 17, 9:38 PM
    • 107 Posts
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    jadziad
    • #6
    • 19th Mar 17, 9:38 PM
    • #6
    • 19th Mar 17, 9:38 PM
    UPS, hsbc, JP Morgan are saying they will move jobs out of the UK, Is this true?
    Originally posted by re14796
    The number of jobs will probably be greater than 1 (plural) and significantly less than all of them. Of course at least some small teams will move abroad. But they might have moved abroad anyway, regardless of Brexit.
    Or is this just a threat to get the government to get a better deal and not press for a hard brexit. Is the financial sector a good sector to work in still?
    Originally posted by re14796
    The most likely outcome is a hard brexit, but there's also the aspect of people frequently underestimating the ability of EU leaders to successfuly work out of difficult negotiations. Or maybe all the talk of a hard brexit is just cementing their negotiating position - they need to be able to walk away.

    Banks will also talk the talk, because they're quitekeen to make as much money as possible.

    Personally, I think it will be around 10 years on WTO terms, with banks will remaining here. However, all the main European countries will try their very best to poach them, but I reckon the UK.gov will offer some serious concessions if they need to.

    ... alternatively, it could all go to s***. Who knows. The problem is the uncertainty, really.
    Last edited by jadziad; 19-03-2017 at 9:43 PM.
    • asajj
    • By asajj 19th Mar 17, 10:01 PM
    • 4,061 Posts
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    asajj
    • #7
    • 19th Mar 17, 10:01 PM
    • #7
    • 19th Mar 17, 10:01 PM
    I work in a very large bank and currently, no one knows. There are some projects going on to move some teams, yes. Some banks already moved some jobs however at the moment, it is as clear as the government's Brexit plan itself. In reality, many of these banks (JPM, BAML etc) have made big investments in the UK over the last 10-15 years and they won't scrap them overnight.
    Also there are number of UK banks and financial services firms. So overall, yes, I believe, it will still be probably a viable sector to work for.
    £2015 in 2015 / £2015

    No buying unnecessary stuff.
    Clearing out by selling on Ebay, donating to charity etc.
    • re14796
    • By re14796 19th Mar 17, 10:34 PM
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    re14796
    • #8
    • 19th Mar 17, 10:34 PM
    • #8
    • 19th Mar 17, 10:34 PM
    Are you worried asajj?
    • asajj
    • By asajj 19th Mar 17, 10:41 PM
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    asajj
    • #9
    • 19th Mar 17, 10:41 PM
    • #9
    • 19th Mar 17, 10:41 PM
    Not really nor do I want to be. I will be worried if it happens
    £2015 in 2015 / £2015

    No buying unnecessary stuff.
    Clearing out by selling on Ebay, donating to charity etc.
    • re14796
    • By re14796 19th Mar 17, 10:54 PM
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    re14796
    If they do go abroad will they relocate people or just employ people aboard
    • steampowered
    • By steampowered 20th Mar 17, 1:36 PM
    • 1,390 Posts
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    steampowered
    Yes, several major banks will move significant numbers of people overseas - while retaining large numbers of people in London.

    Several major banks have already announced that they are intending to move personnel to Europe. See for example http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-4132406/HSBC-1-000-jobs-Paris-London.html.

    Those job moves are not enormous compared to the scale of the banks. But the job moves will get much larger if passporting is not agreed as part of the EU negotiations. Most of the large banks do a large part of their European business from London, it will become impossible for them to do this without the benefit of a passporting arrangement legally requiring European financial regulators to let UK-regulated entities do business in their jurisdiction.

    It depends what team you are in. If you are in a retail banking team (i.e. service to the man on the street), you shouldn't be affected. If you support a large corporate lending team, or a capital markets team, or an investment banking team: then the risk is higher.
    • motorguy
    • By motorguy 20th Mar 17, 2:53 PM
    • 14,993 Posts
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    motorguy
    UPS, hsbc, JP Morgan are saying they will move jobs out of the UK, Is this true? Or is this just a threat to get the government to get a better deal and not press for a hard brexit. Is the financial sector a good sector to work in still?
    Originally posted by re14796
    No. They wont - well not to any great extent anyway. They're postulating to get better deals from the government.
    Last edited by motorguy; 20-03-2017 at 2:56 PM.
    You are not special. You are not a beautiful and unique snowflake.
    • Xbigman
    • By Xbigman 20th Mar 17, 5:56 PM
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    Xbigman
    A few random thoughts...

    If I was running a big bank I'd make sure I had a subsidiary with a European banking licence and some office space already leased in case it was needed. Which is what just about every big company, bank or not, is doing. That's why we keep hearing from Paris, Frankfurt and now Amsterdam how UK companies have plans to relocate there. I think its more a case that they have a backup plan to relocate there.

    I was in a minority of one recently when discussing the 50bn euro cost of leaving the EU. Everyone else thought it was terrible. I thought it was great. Each time I hear how Europe needs something else from us in the negotiations I become more optimistic that there will be a deal.

    I was watching the Dutch election results come in at work (I work nights) and their Prime minister stood up and slagged off populism and Brexit in his victory speech. The BBC then managed to come up with some facts. His party had 41 out of 150 MP's and he led a three party coalition. After the election he has 31 out of 150 with multiple second placed parties on 19. If he forms a new coalition (and it is 'if') he will need at least a five party coalition to have a majority. This is what passes for a great political victory in modern Europe.
    I also noticed that Merkel's spokesman sent congratulations, Hollandes aide sent congratulations, someone else's assistant made a comment. All the actual leaders were clearly asleep.
    Not a great show of support really, was it?




    Darren
    Xbigman's guide to a happy life.

    Eat properly
    Sleep properly
    Save some money
    • asajj
    • By asajj 20th Mar 17, 9:51 PM
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    asajj
    No one claimed EU wouldn't need UK but some people said UK didn't need EU. Dutch election was important due to rise of populist parties so yes it probably did count as a victory.

    The main issue with banks is the passporting rights, if they can't keep it, then they can't do the work connected to that.

    They can't relocate everyone and why they should they really. When a company leaves a country for whatever reason, they don't just relocate everyone, do they? They ask few rising stars or senior people if they are willing to move and then recruit locally. It is a cheaper option first of all and not many will be willing to change their life all-together for a job.
    £2015 in 2015 / £2015

    No buying unnecessary stuff.
    Clearing out by selling on Ebay, donating to charity etc.
    • Xbigman
    • By Xbigman 21st Mar 17, 1:49 AM
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    Xbigman
    We do need the EU. We would survive without them but it would take longer and much more effort. The EU also needs us.
    A reasonable deal is on the cards.

    Just my opinion of course.



    Darren
    Xbigman's guide to a happy life.

    Eat properly
    Sleep properly
    Save some money
    • Big Hairy Spider
    • By Big Hairy Spider 21st Mar 17, 5:32 AM
    • 46 Posts
    • 214 Thanks
    Big Hairy Spider
    UPS, hsbc, JP Morgan are saying they will move jobs out of the UK, Is this true? Or is this just a threat to get the government to get a better deal and not press for a hard brexit. Is the financial sector a good sector to work in still?
    Originally posted by re14796
    Of the three mentioned, if I was a betting man (and I am) it would be HSBC that relocates more than the others. It's current outgoing chairman, Stuart Gulliver, has been moving the banks strategic position towards Asia, particularly China. His successor, Mark Tucker, managed one of Asia's biggest Insurance companies, AIA. The slant to China will continue.

    HSBC's policy has nothing to do with Brexit. British workers have steadily been made redundant, and those jobs have been out-sourced to China and India for (at least) the last three years.
    Bucket and Spade FC - Southend United - turning people to drink since 1906.
    • kaya
    • By kaya 21st Mar 17, 7:53 AM
    • 2,319 Posts
    • 2,693 Thanks
    kaya
    we are one of the highest taxed countries in the world, if the banks were going to move they would have done it many years ago
    • jadziad
    • By jadziad 21st Mar 17, 1:37 PM
    • 107 Posts
    • 136 Thanks
    jadziad
    Goldman Sachs today, from BBC News:
    Goldman Sachs is to move hundreds of people out of London before any Brexit deal is struck as part of its contingency plans for the UK leaving the European Union, the Wall Street firm's Europe chief executive Richard Gnodde has told CNBC.

    "We are going to start to execute on those contingency plans," Mr Gnodde, pictured centre, said.

    "For this first period, this is really the period as we put in place contingency plans, this is in the hundreds of people as opposed to anything greater than that," he said.

    Theresa May will start the Brexit process on March 29.

    The bulk of Goldman's European operations are in Britain, where it has around 6,000 employees.
    • motorguy
    • By motorguy 21st Mar 17, 2:16 PM
    • 14,993 Posts
    • 8,430 Thanks
    motorguy
    Goldman Sachs today, from BBC News:
    Originally posted by jadziad
    Sounds reasonable from a risk perspective - move a few hundred roles in the meantime so you can continue to function during any turbulence around brexit.
    You are not special. You are not a beautiful and unique snowflake.
    • MataNui
    • By MataNui 21st Mar 17, 2:35 PM
    • 758 Posts
    • 378 Thanks
    MataNui
    Euro clearing will need to move to the EU (unless a passporting deal is struck). I believe there are also rules about where a bank has its headquarters which will mean banks will probably need to restructure and move some admin jobs to an EU country (but these will be duplicated positions not truly moved ones).

    Obviously retail banking (or what sorry excuse for it is currently left in the UK) wont move. Also the chances of banks moving any trading operations they dont 100% need to move to the EU is as likely as you buying a gun and shooting yourself in the face, since financially that would be the same result for them. Banks are greedy. The idea that they would voluntarily move to a higher regulated, higher taxed region is laughable. Remember France in particular is one of the EU countries that campaigned the loudest for the Tobin tax which in the days of algorithmic trading would pretty much destroy investment banking.
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