UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

24567…374

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  • sabretoothtigger
    sabretoothtigger Posts: 10,035 Forumite
    First Post Photogenic Combo Breaker First Anniversary
    I was just laying down a free binary bet and put down 602 as the sp500 bottom. I actually think thats wrong but the company would not let people do anything lower, 602 would indicate a lower % drop then the previous low but maybe inflation will kick in and save the nominal low

    On the ftse which would have been a better bet, I would have put 2920 which is much more within range of what could happen between now and october. They wont take bets after hours so I couldnt so its just a set of guesses for this thread

    The idea is if Im wrong then it'll be a bad bet but I'll make the money elsewhere,
    ie. its a hedge and therefore its just my take on negative scenarios for the stockmarkets should this recent high be a top to markets range :)
  • john_s_2
    john_s_2 Posts: 698 Forumite
    wombat42 wrote: »
    Except there is a good chance that commodities and commodity stocks will spike violently upwards for a while in a year or so (higher than they were in 2008), thanks to supply destruction which may well have a coiled spring effect. Also inflation and a falling dollar should help them go up as well..

    There is also good reason to believe that commodities will rise over the long terma s well.
    If it's any help my neighbour is a scrap metal dealer. He told me the other day that scrap metal is starting to nudge up again after falling through the floor last year. He's putting this down to companies having used all their reserve stocks so having no choice but to start buying again (they wouldn't usually run their reserve stocks right down). Although I don't think he's expecting it to go much higher any time soon!
  • tonygee_3
    tonygee_3 Posts: 432 Forumite
    Couldnt resist ELM today,fell 17% a good div if maintained.Update not bad,fall overdone imo
    Anyone aware of any penny mining stocks worth a punt?
  • StevieJ
    StevieJ Posts: 20,174 Forumite
    First Anniversary First Post Combo Breaker
    wombat42 wrote: »
    You have just touched upon 2 reasons yourelf. Lack of investment cash in commodities means supply destruction which should become very apparent when coming out of this recesion in a year or two and cause a big spike. Commodity prices are cyclical - they rocketed in the late 1970s, we are just in a hicup of a boom that should last another 10 years. Also increased demand from India and China should boost prices also inflation and falling dollar should boost prices.

    What is the point of having increasing commodity prices if they are priced in falling USD :D unless you are a Septic of course.
    'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher
  • wombat42_2
    wombat42_2 Posts: 1,312 Forumite
    StevieJ wrote: »
    What is the point of having increasing commodity prices if they are priced in falling USD :D unless you are a Septic of course.

    There is an inverse relationship betwen the dollar price and the commodity price. If the dollar price goes down with respect to other currencies, the commodity price goes up to compensate.
  • gozomark
    gozomark Posts: 2,069 Forumite
    DiggerUK wrote: »
    Charts tell you nothing....... but don't ignore them.

    I cant reconcile those 2 statements
  • ricll
    ricll Posts: 115 Forumite
    tonygee wrote: »
    Couldnt resist ELM today,fell 17% a good div if maintained.Update not bad,fall overdone imo
    Anyone aware of any penny mining stocks worth a punt?

    I bought some elm today as well, quite a lot actually will just hope I make some profit, will sell as soon as I do. Other mining companies worth considering are Xstrata and Vedanta Resources. Kazakhmys was very good for those who bought it a couple of months ago, don't know about it now. These are not very cheap though. I'm not an expert, just a small speculator btw.
  • max11
    max11 Posts: 235 Forumite
    First Post First Anniversary Combo Breaker
    Are you sure that markets will go down? at the moment they are going slowly up!
  • tonygee_3
    tonygee_3 Posts: 432 Forumite
    At the moment a lot of shares are soaring,going up TOO fast so its inevitable there will be profittaking/ correction.Im not getting suckered into shares(commodities) that have done well but wait till they retreat(hopefully)
  • StevieJ
    StevieJ Posts: 20,174 Forumite
    First Anniversary First Post Combo Breaker
    purch wrote: »
    Many/Most stocks will take years to regain their highs, and some may never get there (in real terms)

    And I am sure some are at their highs now.
    'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher
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