Why is 'Timing' the market bad ?

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  • jimjames
    jimjames Posts: 17,596 Forumite
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    jdw2000 wrote: »
    House prices have gone up broadly in line with stocks over the years.

    People don't see the value of their house shown changing every day on the news though
    Remember the saying: if it looks too good to be true it almost certainly is.
  • economic
    economic Posts: 3,002 Forumite
    jdw2000 wrote: »
    House prices have gone up broadly in line with stocks over the years.

    they have but stocks are way more volatile.

    also past does not indicate the future. theres no certainty stocks will be higher in 10 or even 20 years compared to now (at least in real terms but maybe in nominal terms too).
  • economic
    economic Posts: 3,002 Forumite
    jimjames wrote: »
    People don't see the value of their house shown changing every day on the news though

    you can now using zoopla :)
  • jdw2000
    jdw2000 Posts: 418 Forumite
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    economic wrote: »
    they have but stocks are way more volatile.

    also past does not indicate the future. theres no certainty stocks will be higher in 10 or even 20 years compared to now (at least in real terms but maybe in nominal terms too).

    There's no certainly earth will exist in 20 years. Or that you are I will be alive to see it if it does.

    The only certainty is that everything will end. You, me, the earth, and everything on it.
  • Thrugelmir
    Thrugelmir Posts: 89,546 Forumite
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    kidmugsy wrote: »
    And in 1999 he was spot on, predicting the 2000 dotcom crash. Were you?

    Wasn't rocket science with regards to LastMinute.Com. Anybody with any iota of business sense would have questioned valuing a company at £523 million. That only had a turnover of £3 million and never previously made a profit. Nothing like hype to suck mugs in with the expectation of quick and easy profit. Meanwhile the founders were made for life. Without ever having been successful. Other than having a good basic idea.
  • economic
    economic Posts: 3,002 Forumite
    jdw2000 wrote: »
    There's no certainly earth will exist in 20 years. Or that you are I will be alive to see it if it does.

    The only certainty is that everything will end. You, me, the earth, and everything on it.

    there is that saying in the long run we are all dead. by keynes.
  • grey_gym_sock
    grey_gym_sock Posts: 4,508 Forumite
    kidmugsy wrote: »
    And in 1999 he was spot on, predicting the 2000 dotcom crash. Were you?

    a strange response.

    i've never put myself forward as somebody who can give useful advice about timing the market. (i have suggested that it's not necessary, and probably a bad idea, even to try timing the market.)

    you have put hussman forward in that role. we've now established that sometimes his advice has been accurate, at other times very inaccurate. that makes it unreliable. so why do you suggest paying any attention to his advice?

    a persistent doomster does not become right - not in any useful sense - the next time there is a big market crash. and there always will be another big market crash - we just don't know when. after the next crash, are you going to be saying "hussman was right after all!", ignoring that following his advice would have given disastrous results, compared to the alternative of making no attempt to call the next crash, and just holding a steady mixed-asset portfolio throughout.
  • AnotherJoe
    AnotherJoe Posts: 19,622 Forumite
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    jdw2000 wrote: »
    Whose fund is that?

    Follow the link k in post 44
  • AnotherJoe
    AnotherJoe Posts: 19,622 Forumite
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    kidmugsy wrote: »
    What has that got to do with the issue? Hussmann makes a perfectly sensible case for a market bust in the near future. If you don't like his argument just show us the flaws.

    The flaw is he makes that argument consistently so it's useless, it's like me saying "in an hours time it will be 1pm," every five minutes. The second flaw is the performance of the funds which implement his beliefs whichbremarably have incurred large losses despite a large stock market rise.

    Can't recall the name, in the same vein, there was a respected economics professor, won all sorts of awards, very credible theories, you read them and though "that makes sense" he then started a fund based on his theories. Lost a boatload of money and shut the funds down very recently.
  • fairleads
    fairleads Posts: 595 Forumite
    Why is 'Timing' the market bad ?

    Too much concentration, you'd be better off timing the markets.
    Trading on their volatility and cyclic movements.
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