UK Inflation Forecast 2011, Imminent Spike to Above CPI 4%, RPI 6%
Options
Comments
-
The VAT increase can't cause an increase in inflation, inflation was due to go down had they not increased it again. Inflation could go a bit higher due to increased commodity prices but I doubt we will see 6% RPI this year. Core inflation is about as low as it can be without deflation.
Right 2.7% is near deflation is it?
The previous VAT increase and the devaluation of Sterling would be more than enough to cancel out this VAT increase plus also put downward pressure on CPI, which are now out of the YOY figures.0 -
What about the devaluation of Sterling which should have filtered out the YOY figures now.
The excuses are starting to wear thin.
Exchange rate differences take much longer to filter through. In fact many companies have a policy not to adjust prices due to exchange rate changes and will take the honey when it works in their favour and the hit when it doesn't. Apart from against the Euro the pound lost more ground against the USD and other currencies last year. In the last few years we have gone from rip-off britain to one of the cheapest countries in Europe.0 -
Right 2.7% is near deflation is it?
The previous VAT increase and the devaluation of Sterling would be more than enough to cancel out this VAT increase plus also put downward pressure on CPI, which are now out of the YOY figures.
Some sectors are already in deflation.
November CPI
Food & non-alcoholic beverages 1.6CPI All Items 0.4
Alcohol & tobacco -0.3
Clothing & footwear 2.0
Housing & household services 0.3
Furniture & household goods 1.6
Health -0.2
Transport -0.1
Communication -0.3
Recreation & culture -0.2
Education 0.0
Restaurants & hotels 0.2
Miscell. goods & services
0.0
0 -
Some sectors are already in deflation.
November CPIFood & non-alcoholic beverages 1.6CPI All Items 0.4
Alcohol & tobacco -0.3
Clothing & footwear 2.0
Housing & household services 0.3
Furniture & household goods 1.6
Health -0.2
Transport -0.1
Communication -0.3
Recreation & culture -0.2
Education 0.0
Restaurants & hotels 0.2
Miscell. goods & services
0.0
Do you seriously belive alcohol and tobacco have gone down? not in my pub they havn't or that food has gone down in price? not in my supermarket. or that transportation has gone down? rail fairs, fuel? There's lies damn lies and gov statistics.Hi, we’ve had to remove your signature. If you’re not sure why please read the forum rules or email the forum team if you’re still unsure - MSE ForumTeam0 -
Ah another conspiracy, so when they show a big increase they are correct but when they show a decrease they are lieing?0
-
I disagree with smeagold on the wisdom of investing in anything that you can't eat, cant wear, can't take shelter in, pays no dividends and costs you money to look after.
That said, I agree with him on the risk of inflation. I don't see how you can (electronically) print billions of new money without it affecting the value of my money. It may take a while but it will come sloshing out into the real economy sometime. But my greater worry is political expedient. Inflation hurts savers but rescues borrowers. And HM Government is one of the biggest borrowers of the lot. Start to worry when you hear Mr Cameron announce that he has abolished the wage-price spiral.
My money is in public utilities. (and I think smeagold agrees with me on those)
David0 -
DavidHayton wrote: »I disagree with smeagold on the wisdom of investing in anything that you can't eat, cant wear, can't take shelter in, pays no dividends and costs you money to look after.
That said, I agree with him on the risk of inflation. I don't see how you can (electronically) print billions of new money without it affecting the value of my money. It may take a while but it will come sloshing out into the real economy sometime. But my greater worry is political expedient. Inflation hurts savers but rescues borrowers. And HM Government is one of the biggest borrowers of the lot. Start to worry when you hear Mr Cameron announce that he has abolished the wage-price spiral.
My money is in public utilities. (and I think smeagold agrees with me on those)
David
If you add up all the bad debt wite-offs, debt repayment and loss of available credit i.e. all the money that has been removed from the economy how much does it add up to? Also remember QE was mainly used to buy government bonds, until the gorvermnet spends the money it doesn't go into the economy. Not to mention government spening is going down.0 -
What about the devaluation of Sterling which should have filtered out the YOY figures now.
The excuses are starting to wear thin.
I was simply commenting on this point.The VAT time bomb that has been ticking for the whole of 2010 exploded on 4th of Jan 2011 that will now likely result in an surge in Inflation to above 4% CPI and 6% RPI as I anticipated over 8 months ago during the general election campaign'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher0
This discussion has been closed.
Categories
- All Categories
- 343.2K Banking & Borrowing
- 250.1K Reduce Debt & Boost Income
- 449.7K Spending & Discounts
- 235.3K Work, Benefits & Business
- 608K Mortgages, Homes & Bills
- 173.1K Life & Family
- 247.9K Travel & Transport
- 1.5M Hobbies & Leisure
- 15.9K Discuss & Feedback
- 15.1K Coronavirus Support Boards