Are pensioners about to be shafted – again?
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I will be most interested to see the electoral manifesto for Tories since they will expect to win the General Election so the policies will be more carefully thought out rather than the previous one which are assuming the potential coalition between parties which can give them an excuse to ditch few of these manifesto pledges. No doubt it will include tax rises and so on, a necessity I think.0
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The sooner the better for the good of the nation.0
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The triple lock with a minimum uplift of 2.5% is not fair when many young workers have been limited to 1% so sooner or later the fairest policy would be to change to keep state pension rises in line with average wages or inflation.
The DWP new policy on state pensions was due to be announced early May but may be delayed until after the election.0 -
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It won't be in anybody's manifesto for obvious reasons.
I doubt it makes much difference. The two things the Chancellor needs to abolish it are a) a year of reasonably high inflation (2%+) which makes the triple lock seem superfluous, and a sweetener to compensate for its removal.
Compared to the public sector pension bill the impact of the triple lock is peanuts. We need 2%+ inflation anyway to reduce the debt, so the actual cost of the triple lock (2.5% minus the higher of wage or price inflation) is measured in pennies a week per pensioner. The main reason it has had so much focus is because intergenerational warfare sells newspapers.0 -
whattochoose wrote: »Various announcements have suggested that come the next election, it's likely any successful government will end the commitment to the "triple lock" guarantee where the State Pension is concerned.
The Conservatives were committed to keeping the triple lock until 2020, Labour has committed themselves to keeping it until 2025.whattochoose wrote: »...Well, now that we are going to have a General Election earlier than expected, do members think we can expect the triple lock provision to be done away with sooner than we expected? Thank you.
I'd expect them to repeat the existing commitments. The over 65s tend to actually vote. No one wants to upset them.:)0 -
Malthusian wrote: »..I doubt it makes much difference. The two things the Chancellor needs to abolish it are a) a year of reasonably high inflation (2%+) which makes the triple lock seem superfluous, and a sweetener to compensate for its removal....
It hasn't made that much difference so far. It's only kicked in once since 2010, compared to the previous double lock. How much it has cost depends on what alternative is proposed, but is somewhere in the region of £1 bn to £4 bn a year.
The concern is more of what effect it has in the future; given that the pension bill is rising anyway.0 -
Malthusian wrote: »Compared to the public sector pension bill the impact of the triple lock is peanuts. We need 2%+ inflation anyway to reduce the debt, so the actual cost of the triple lock (2.5% minus the higher of wage or price inflation) is measured in pennies a week per pensioner.
The cost of any increase is going to be minimal when you look at it over only one year.
But the triple lock increase accumulates and compounds. The cost is phenomenal when you look at it over time. If you keep adding an extra 0.5% above inflation each year, added on top of the last year's 0.5%, that adds up.
The figures I could find on a quick search for "cost of triple lock" suggest it is costing £6bn a year. If you keep adding £6bn a year, and the next year £12bn, and the next year ... etc. etc., that eventually adds up into an enormous cost. I don't see how that is sustainable long term.
There is an interesting article about it here. It models that keeping the triple lock - alone - for the next 50 years would increase the national debt by 26% of GDP.0
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