UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

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  • sabretoothtigger
    sabretoothtigger Posts: 10,035
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    Its not that UK cant have 1% but we'd be ahead of USA by a large margin then, our exchange rate would go up.
    The argument is we become uncompetitive for exports. It is a paradox. We import alot, that becomes cheaper also.

    I think it is inevitable rates rise but I did not think they'd stay this low to begin with. I bought gold five years on QE start because I realised then it was a new paradigm and a large reset is coming somehow and that is the only thing not caught in the middle of this paradox of will we wont we.

    Lloyds might benefit from inflation? Their asset value to debt could improve. The factor you might not consider is the bonds you hold could become more valuable through improvements to the companies security or credit rating type dynamic
    Their customers will not like rate rises or general upsets ahead but thats a given

    The shares could be the better hold now if they ever pay a dividend. I did think they'd maybe give a penny by now but the CEO is cautious fastidious type I believe




    Which FT250 stock Kittie, spill the beans :D I still have ATK as it looks amazing TA wise and seems valid business (trying to buy more at some short term low)

    I sold Kenz too soon, Robbie Burns kept it of course he would. Trying to think of amazing stocks, CEY is probably way too cheap but do you love that government.
    QFI chart looks stellar but its risky, rated by Questor who says sell QPP but I hold on

    Not sure what happened to APR, I held onto AGK instead luckily which should do ok to well with ongoing uncertainty. I think its wrong not invest world wide, for balance. Asia Pacific monthly buy was my best decision in May 2008 by far & probably is good now
  • gadgetmind
    gadgetmind Posts: 11,130
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    kittie wrote: »
    over and out now and back to growing veg and knitting, I just glance at my charts from now when I update my charting package

    I can picture you now, complete with shawl and crystal ball!
    I am not a financial adviser and neither do I play one on television. I might occasionally give bad advice but at least it's free.

    Like all religions, the Faith of the Invisible Pink Unicorns is based upon both logic and faith. We have faith that they are pink; we logically know that they are invisible because we can't see them.
  • sabretoothtigger
    sabretoothtigger Posts: 10,035
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    Entered August with CEY BP RMG GENL and VED
    Tons of risk there but I think the graphs look positive short term and possible to recover longer term losses.
    The market direction itself is in the balance, any further falls from here might be shortable as it breaks this years trend up. Most likely is a strong rise as its done every other time its fallen sharply like last week.
  • kidmugsy
    kidmugsy Posts: 12,709
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    kittie wrote: »
    I manage my husbands sipp, which I vested for him and he is retired now

    "vested": what a fine word that is. "Crystallised" sounds too Californian.
    Free the dunston one next time too.
  • worldtraveller
    worldtraveller Posts: 14,012
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    edited 25 October 2014 at 5:25PM
    I haven't posted on this thread for some time. However, my current positions are mostly in global smaller companies, heavier into the U.S. market, where I see better returns, short-medium term. I'm also still drip feeding into one of my favourite funds, First State Global Resources, when the price drops to levels that are around those seen just after the last recession. I don't see any commodity "super-cycle" push upwards anytime soon, but I'm positioning now for that to happen, maybe in the next 2-3 years.
    There is a pleasure in the pathless woods, There is a rapture on the lonely shore, There is society, where none intrudes, By the deep sea, and music in its roar: I love not man the less, but Nature more...
  • bowlhead99
    bowlhead99 Posts: 12,295
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    What is the opposite of a supercycle? - that's what resources are in right now! I'm not counting on another one happening in a couple of years. The values of the global resources and energy markets have changed significantly over recent months/years with Chinese growth dropping off and the US embracing fracking which has changed the whole dynamics of their energy market and the amount of oil they need to import etc, so you can't just presume that someone will flip a switch and we'll be back up at the last highs.

    That said, I do have some natural resources plays in my portfolio, as the sector has to be a decent bet for the long long (long?) term and a lot of other things are damned expensive so it makes sense to buy stuff that has fallen rather than stuff that has risen. But a supercycle push upwards in 2 years sounds pretty optimistic to me.
  • worldtraveller
    worldtraveller Posts: 14,012
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    edited 25 October 2014 at 5:59PM
    bowlhead99 wrote: »
    What is the opposite of a supercycle? - that's what resources are in right now! I'm not counting on another one happening in a couple of years. The values of the global resources and energy markets have changed significantly over recent months/years with Chinese growth dropping off and the US embracing fracking which has changed the whole dynamics of their energy market and the amount of oil they need to import etc, so you can't just presume that someone will flip a switch and we'll be back up at the last highs.

    That said, I do have some natural resources plays in my portfolio, as the sector has to be a decent bet for the long long (long?) term and a lot of other things are damned expensive so it makes sense to buy stuff that has fallen rather than stuff that has risen. But a supercycle push upwards in 2 years sounds pretty optimistic to me.

    I take onboard your views, and, as I say, maybe in the next 2-3 years. Yes, as I said, I agree that commodity prices are one of the few that are now at levels that are worth a longer term punt. However, don't forget that, as we've seen in the past, in this very type of market, production is severely curtailed; plants are closed, or mothballed; new projects are put on the back burner, or shelved. While factories can add a new production line in weeks, new mines can take years to develop while older mines take months to shut down and restart. Therefore, as production is reduced, often considerably, it then doesn't take much of an upturn to push prices up higher, very quickly, whilst production tries to catch up again with demand.
    There is a pleasure in the pathless woods, There is a rapture on the lonely shore, There is society, where none intrudes, By the deep sea, and music in its roar: I love not man the less, but Nature more...
  • Thrugelmir
    Thrugelmir Posts: 89,546
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    bowlhead99 wrote: »
    the US embracing fracking which has changed the whole dynamics of their energy market and the amount of oil they need to import etc,

    The US is likely to become a net exporter of oil. This will cause fundamental change to the market. As there'll be looking for secure export markets i.e. the UK.
  • Fracking produces oil production gains shorter term, they must keep applying the affect in new ground in order to maintain the same level of productive capacity
    What is the opposite of a supercycle? - that's what resources are in right now!
    The supercycle term should probably go on the shelf next to peak oil. Your comment might be right but I think we have the zenith of political debt going on right now, the opposite being a global economy based around production which would favour commodities more.

    There is also the technology economy which is based off nothing at all in some cases, just ideas. IBM is just offloading their actual chip manufacturing I think as its not especially profitable. Brand > muscle
    [global gdp is still positive i hope]

    Takes 10 years to establish a gold mine apparently. I bought some centamin as it has taken about that long but now gives a dividend however they have terrorist attacks in Sinai but its an especially cheap share seems like
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