'What’d you do in a burning building?' poll results/discussion

1356

Comments

  • Viajero
    Viajero Posts: 1 Newbie
    As many of you have pointed out this is simply a version of the game theory classic prisonners dilemma.

    The key in this dilemma, used extensively in competing environments, mostly commercial, is to understand if this is a one off event or if this is going to be a repeated event (like regular advertising camapaigns by rival brands for example, etc).

    In a one off event there is no point in cooperating as there is no way to predict how your rival is going to be behave initially, so statistically you are better of running.

    Only in a repetitive environment you have a chance to assure the wellbeing of everyone. In a repetitive environment you can learn from what your opponent does every time (and he can learn from yours!) If you see a "walk" pattern emerging, i.e. a cooperative mode proposed by you or your opponent actions, everyone realizes they will be better of that way. If at any point that trust is broken, the player can be assured of the next turn retaliation by the other parties, and everyone loses out.

    Bottom line is that in the long term, and in a repetitive environment (one where you can respond in the next turn to your opponent actions) everyone is better of by cooperating, i.e. walking.

    In this particular case chances are you will not have many cinema fires in your life and certainly not with the same people in the room, so I am afraid the course of action is... run for your life!
  • PennyPinchingPrincess
    PennyPinchingPrincess Posts: 149 Forumite
    Cinema? I'd wait for the film to be released on DVD and hope I could borrow a copy.
    Refusing to Sit Down & Shut Up since 1974 :kiss:
  • nzseries1
    nzseries1 Posts: 2,240 Forumite
    This has put me right off going to the cinema tonight.
    You're spelling is effecting me so much. Im trying not to be phased by it but your all making me loose my mind on mass!! My head is loosing it's hair. I'm going to take myself off the electoral role like I should of done ages ago and move to the Caribean. I already brought my plane ticket, all be it a refundable 1.
  • debbsie
    debbsie Posts: 17 Forumite
    It depends if I was in the queue for the ice cream or not . . .
    . . . there's debt you have to pay, and debt you can get away with . . know the difference . . they can't hang you for it!!!
  • UproarUK
    UproarUK Posts: 32 Forumite
    mymatebob wrote: »
    What surprised me is that I have seen people walk past a fire exit as it is shut and they don't seem to want to cause any bother by opening it.
    The sheep mentality is an amazing thing to behold.

    Exactly, the much bigger problem is that people follow the people in front of them, which generally leads to the front door... Even when the queue now reaches the fire exit, noone will use it until someone else does first.
  • frugallass
    frugallass Posts: 2,320 Forumite
    Combo Breaker First Post
    I always look for fire exits whenever I'm in hotels, cinemas, public buildings etc (it's something hubby has always done and I just do it naturally now too). It's amazing how often the fire alarms go off in hotels and people haven't got a clue what floor they're on never mind where the emergency exits are.

    I'd make sure my family were safe and with me and then I'd get the hell out of there, helping others on the way if need be.
  • gh123
    gh123 Posts: 39 Forumite
    ChowFan wrote: »
    If we make some assumptions on probabilities and that there's only 1 other person....

    A) You walk, other person walks. High probability of survival. 80%
    B) You run, other person walks. Definite survival. 100%
    C) You walk, he runs. Very Low survival. 10%
    D) You run, he runs. Low survival. 20%

    If we assume the other guy has a 50/50 chance of running, then we get.

    A+C) You walk, probability of survival. (80+10)/2 = 45%
    B+D) You run, probability of survival. (100+20)/2 = 60%

    Ergo, you should run. Now, what are the chances that someone would sit and work all this out while the cinema is burning? 0%.

    BTW, with regards to the Ryanair scenario, I'm the type that usually sits reading the paper till the queue's gone..., but if there was a fire, I'm deffo running!

    The articale says: "You walk & everyone else runs… many get killed, you’re definitely one."

    How did you calculate that definitely dead is around a 10% survival rate? I'd say it's 0%.

    So I'd say by your method walk - 40% of living, run - 60% chance of living.

    Still run, same as me!:T
  • JayWalker
    JayWalker Posts: 110 Forumite
    First Anniversary Combo Breaker Mortgage-free Glee!
    elsien wrote: »
    You're presuming a degree of rational thought is going on here. I'm guessing that for the majority of people (myself included) the first whiff of smoke will have everyone heading for the exits at speed. I also think that you'd be right there alongside the rest of us - nice sentiments, but panic doesn't work like that.

    And by following your instincts you are acting on the decisions of your ancestors to run whenever they smell smoke (or hear a large, hungry lion behind them). Panic is an evolved response and we're all descended from survivors. In a way, the theory had been incorporated into our genes.

    Of course, no-one's mentioning the people who can't run who will either be trampled or left to suffocate in the smoke. Maybe that's a more interesting dilemma - if you know you have no chance of escape, would you try to help the ones who can?
  • Countertenor
    Countertenor Posts: 29 Forumite
    Logically, if you could be sure that everyone else would walk, you'd walk too - not least because there's be no sense of panic/urgency. I don't think everyone else would walk, so my chances are immediately reduced if I walk too. Whether they'd be more reduced if everyone else ran, I don't know. It would all depend on the severity of the fire - if you just smelled smoke, you might not think it was immediately threatening - if you could see flames, you'd want to be first out, especially if you were nearest to them!
  • kerri_gt
    kerri_gt Posts: 11,202 Forumite
    First Post Name Dropper First Anniversary Xmas Saver!
    I think we'd all like to click on the 'walk' option thus ensuring everyone gets out ok but being totally honest, if there was a fire I am fairly sure (no matter how much I would like to wish otherwise) that the basic survival instinct would kick in - to live, which would trigger the need too get out asap and thus run.

    Of course, there are excpetions where people do extrordinary things to help others in situations such as this, putting their own lives in jeopardy - I'd like to hope I might be one of those people, I might, I might not... but then is that also being selfish if I was killed as a result and left my family and friends to cope with those consequences?
    Feb 2015 NSD Challenge 8/12
    JAN NSD 11/16


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