800k CETV Figure, is £28k p.a. sensible

GSP
GSP Posts: 887 Forumite
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Hi all,
Aged 55 in just over 5 weeks and I intend to start a flexi access drawdown income next month, all being well.

I have nothing to fall back on presently. The wife nearly 50 has a CETV figure currently at £150k.

There is likely to be 3 inheritances in less than 20 years worth something around £75k, £150k and £200k in current values. EDIT, but I am not relying on them.

The IFA I'm going with (% fee) suggested £28k p.a. to start with, and review from there. Another one we saw (flat fee) said we should survive on £35k to we are 100.

We will have state pensions but not the full amounts something like 75% after being contracted out.

The questions are is the £28k too sensible? Its a figure which should comfortably provide our needs. Would you go for the £35k.

Be interested to hear your views and what you would do overall as you start out from 55. Always good to have opinions as sure these all differ slightly.
«1345

Comments

  • Linton
    Linton Posts: 17,107 Forumite
    Name Dropper First Post First Anniversary Hung up my suit!
    Based on past history drawing down a steady £28K increasing with inflation from an £800K pot is considered sensible. This assumes that you manage your investments sensibly and are not over cautious. The problem with drawdown is that if you take too much during the bad times you risk eating into the capital you need to generate future income.

    If you are prepared to vary your drawdown depending on market conditions past history suggests that you could go up to £40K or more. See jamesd's thread on the subject.

    One caveat - all this is based on historic data. The real future may be very different.
  • JoeCrystal
    JoeCrystal Posts: 3,008 Forumite
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    I believe you should discard any notions of the future inheritances. You may think it is likely but it would be foolish to base your retirement plan on them. Just wondering here, is this £800.000 is already transferred out or still within DB pension scheme? If so, how much will it pay?

    Having said this, it is very enviable position to be in!
  • ex-pat_scot
    ex-pat_scot Posts: 691 Forumite
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    This is one instance where you need to properly list out the timings and amounts of all relevant cash flows from now.

    - start date and amount of state pensions x 2
    - plan of attack for your wife (est retirement date, est pot value at retirement)
    - put the figures into cFireSim or similar.
    - calculate your current pot value (is it a CETV quote from existing DB pensions, or is this your current DC pot value, or a mix of the two)
    - what is your ongoing investment strategy for the undrawn element of the pot (ie are you going to keep most of the £800k in equities, and draw 1 year's amount at a time?)
    - play about with the drawdown rate in cFireSim to see how the amounts drawn would impact your long term capital, and chance of success to age 95 (say) - ie 40 year horizon.

    Frankly, my initial stab before going into any calculations or models is that a £800k pot, invested in equities, can yield 4% (£32,000 pa gross) without significant risk of long term depletion of capital. That's before you factor in the SP, your wife's pension and SP, and any future inheritances.
    I suspect that the detailed analysis would get you to a good £40,000 pa gross initial drawdown (but I haven't run the numbers. I'll leave that delight for you!)

    Another question for you: what are you paying the IFA for? Just to run the numbers? To recommmend a drawndown strategy and investment strategy? If so, is the figure value for money? SHould you be looking at a one -off advice charge (fixed fee, not %) rather than a possible long term recurring fee?
  • molerat
    molerat Posts: 31,802 Forumite
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    Also worth looking at topping up your state pensions. If you are both at only 75% that could bring in another £4K between you for a relatively small payment, payback of the capital is 3-4 years.
  • Linton
    Linton Posts: 17,107 Forumite
    Name Dropper First Post First Anniversary Hung up my suit!
    And another bit of advice....

    Once you take your SP , if you go for some of the higher drawdown estimates you will be paying higher rate income tax. Therefore I suggest you consider drawing down all the money you can from your SIPP, keeping within the basic rate tax band before you take your SP. Anything you dont need immediately you can put in an S&S ISA, possibly invested in the same way as your SIPP.
  • stoozie1
    stoozie1 Posts: 656 Forumite
    It looks like you aren't maximising your wife's personal allowance between her retirement and her SP age?

    Could you put as much as possible into her pension over the next 5 years to gain the tax relief now, and also use her taxfree allowance in 5 years.
    Save 12 k in 2018 challenge member #79
    Target 2018: 24k Jan 2018- £560 April £2670
  • gibbo888
    gibbo888 Posts: 51 Forumite
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    GSP
    I have similar figures to you, as already discussed on other posts, albeit i am 10 years younger.

    I have ran all the calculations alluded to above, basing my starting amount at 46 years old, and a withdrawal of 36k.(i know its not possible to do this, but for the calculation it was)
    and the money doesn't run out until i am nearly 85.(95 for you)

    So 36K + 3% inflation = 39 years. with a 95% success (assuming 4% growth on investments)(very little tax paid)
    Then.
    Add in full SP x2 @ 67 and a 25% reduction @ 75 and any potential inheritance monies and there is a significant pot of money left over.
    So it looks doable historically!!
  • blisteringblue
    blisteringblue Posts: 1,140 Forumite
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    Very similar this to myself, although I am only 50 this year. I'm in the process of transferring 2 x DB pensions into a SIPP. I will be sat around £700k after this, with about 70K pension investment to go over the remaining 5 years from the current live pension with work (DC). I've a 3rd small DB where the CETV wasn't worth it so will leave that to come in at 65.

    I said 2K net a month was my number with my IFA obviously without the mortgage (small anyway and whatever is remaining will come out the tax free element) so again very similar to your 28k. Haven't decided if I will take the full 25% of final pot at 55 or not yet. IFA said not to and just what was needed.

    I'm quite conservative and will be sticking with low risk funds so expect some growth over the 5 years, but with Brexit in the middle of this will be happy around the 800K mark, anything else is a bonus.

    I've been in a DC scheme since 2006 when the DB finished so I've seen what a financial crisis can do to the numbers, although have also seen the possible recovery if you manage it right. Hence I was happy with the risk of giving up the DB.

    Best of luck to you.
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