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  • FIRST POST
    • intowhere
    • By intowhere 9th Aug 17, 4:01 PM
    • 18Posts
    • 2Thanks
    intowhere
    60% return in 12 months - can it continue.
    • #1
    • 9th Aug 17, 4:01 PM
    60% return in 12 months - can it continue. 9th Aug 17 at 4:01 PM
    I've been mucking around investing small amounts in small cap shares. Doing nothing other than just following the advice of share tippers in the press and on various websites. Not doing any research myself just looking up the firm and buying. I purchase smallish amounts (£50 - £200). I've made a 60% return. However because I purchase small amounts of stock the trading expense is very high relative to what I am buying, although the 60% inc the cost of buying selling shres.

    A part of me things, why not just ramp it up, just buy as much as I can but I have a feeling this is all just luck; a few of the tips have been dire and I have lost 90% of their value, most havent moved but a few have really flown, but there is no logic of this; i am just dependant on how accurate the tippers are being.

    Are these people who are proving the tips doing some research or are they just pulling things out of the air for that people like me fall for them?
Page 1
    • EdGasketTheSecond
    • By EdGasketTheSecond 9th Aug 17, 4:09 PM
    • 190 Posts
    • 99 Thanks
    EdGasketTheSecond
    • #2
    • 9th Aug 17, 4:09 PM
    • #2
    • 9th Aug 17, 4:09 PM
    If they really knew, they'd invest their own money and not bother writing tipster sheets. The markets have been good lately and you have been lucky; small caps may well fair worse than large caps in a downturn.

    People writing tips are just doing their job; you have to do your own research. Not so long ago Simon Thomson in the Investor's Chronicle was tipping Naibu Global and Camkids; neither of which actually even existed in reality except on paper. Followers lost a lot of money on that scam (foreign company listed on AIM). All he was doing was relying on reported figures and running a slide rule over them; never researched that they actually sold anything.
    • fiisch
    • By fiisch 9th Aug 17, 4:25 PM
    • 118 Posts
    • 37 Thanks
    fiisch
    • #3
    • 9th Aug 17, 4:25 PM
    • #3
    • 9th Aug 17, 4:25 PM
    Where do you get the tips and where do I sign up?


    In all seriousness, I think you've answered your own question.... the answer, sadly, is probably not. If it were that easy to get year on year 60% returns, I'd be typing this from my yacht moored in Monaco.
    • ColdIron
    • By ColdIron 9th Aug 17, 4:33 PM
    • 3,276 Posts
    • 3,763 Thanks
    ColdIron
    • #4
    • 9th Aug 17, 4:33 PM
    • #4
    • 9th Aug 17, 4:33 PM
    You've done no research and been doing nothing except following tips in the press with no logic, made 60% and you think this is luck? You're a natural. Go for it
    • LHW99
    • By LHW99 9th Aug 17, 5:06 PM
    • 828 Posts
    • 650 Thanks
    LHW99
    • #5
    • 9th Aug 17, 5:06 PM
    • #5
    • 9th Aug 17, 5:06 PM
    From experience I have found I have done best when buying anything OTHER than the press tips!
    • ChesterDog
    • By ChesterDog 9th Aug 17, 5:12 PM
    • 752 Posts
    • 1,289 Thanks
    ChesterDog
    • #6
    • 9th Aug 17, 5:12 PM
    • #6
    • 9th Aug 17, 5:12 PM
    You are certainly in dangerous territory.

    Can it continue like this? Of course, anything is possible.

    Will it continue like this? No.

    :-)
    I am one of the "Dogs of the Index".
    • baby_boomer
    • By baby_boomer 9th Aug 17, 7:00 PM
    • 3,766 Posts
    • 5,383 Thanks
    baby_boomer
    • #7
    • 9th Aug 17, 7:00 PM
    • #7
    • 9th Aug 17, 7:00 PM
    I bought into the Motley Fool's "inner circle" four years back and put their recommendations into my Pension. I put my own choices into my ISA.
    ISA + 67%
    Pension - 1%
    They sacked the people responsible and sold off the losing shares so that the Portfolio looked "respectable" again to boost new membership. In the meantime they diluted the losses by doubling the size of their investment portfolio so that new investors could be duped.
    • baby_boomer
    • By baby_boomer 9th Aug 17, 7:07 PM
    • 3,766 Posts
    • 5,383 Thanks
    baby_boomer
    • #8
    • 9th Aug 17, 7:07 PM
    • #8
    • 9th Aug 17, 7:07 PM
    "Tip sheets" tend to attract customers at the end of bull markets as they can sell their product on "past performance".
    • Malthusian
    • By Malthusian 10th Aug 17, 9:24 AM
    • 2,582 Posts
    • 3,674 Thanks
    Malthusian
    • #9
    • 10th Aug 17, 9:24 AM
    • #9
    • 10th Aug 17, 9:24 AM
    You are correct, it's luck. If you want to make it last, the answer is easy - become one of the share tipsters. Write a book on your amazing system that made 60% in a year and flog it to people looking to get rich quick. (Doesn't matter that you didn't have one. Make one up and apply it retrospectively.) Rent some fancy cars and take photos of yourself next to them, do the same with other luxury items, and scatter them liberally throughout the book. Then you'll never need to gamble on small caps again.
    • thegrind
    • By thegrind 10th Aug 17, 4:50 PM
    • 55 Posts
    • 59 Thanks
    thegrind
    HSBC has today signalled a higher chance of a correction in the markets at the end of the year,

    Could this correction if it happens this year be the start of a recession next year? Who knows
    • talexuser
    • By talexuser 10th Aug 17, 5:48 PM
    • 2,220 Posts
    • 1,672 Thanks
    talexuser
    You've managed 60% in 1 year. Lets put in £1000 and assume 60% for 5 years in a row, adding the dividends average 4 times a year. Compounded you would end up with over £16,000. Now just how likely do you think that is and why isn't everybody doing it?
    • darkidoe
    • By darkidoe 10th Aug 17, 6:38 PM
    • 815 Posts
    • 922 Thanks
    darkidoe
    You've managed 60% in 1 year. Lets put in £1000 and assume 60% for 5 years in a row, adding the dividends average 4 times a year. Compounded you would end up with over £16,000. Now just how likely do you think that is and why isn't everybody doing it?
    Originally posted by talexuser
    You know statistically, if you flip a coin long enough, you WILL get 10 heads in a row. Maybe he is that 10 heads in the row.

    Save 12K in 2017 # 9 £7 616.65/15 000 (50.78%)
    Save 12K in 2016 # 8 £19 721.58/12 000 (164.35%) Achieved!
    • Thrugelmir
    • By Thrugelmir 10th Aug 17, 6:51 PM
    • 54,777 Posts
    • 47,656 Thanks
    Thrugelmir

    Are these people who are proving the tips doing some research or are they just pulling things out of the air for that people like me fall for them?
    Originally posted by intowhere
    Read the research and make you own judgement call. Stick to small sums. Learn from your personal experience. Using this to refine the areas you invest in. Polly Peck was a stock market darling in it's day. Yet folded overnight. Remember people may not be what they purport to be. With investing comes risk.
    “ “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell.” Sir John Marks Templeton
    • talexuser
    • By talexuser 10th Aug 17, 10:58 PM
    • 2,220 Posts
    • 1,672 Thanks
    talexuser
    You know statistically, if you flip a coin long enough, you WILL get 10 heads in a row. Maybe he is that 10 heads in the row.
    Originally posted by darkidoe
    And how much will you have lost before getting those 10 in a row?
    • darkidoe
    • By darkidoe 10th Aug 17, 11:43 PM
    • 815 Posts
    • 922 Thanks
    darkidoe
    And how much will you have lost before getting those 10 in a row?
    Originally posted by talexuser
    Nothing. I am not wasting time or money flipping coins.

    Save 12K in 2017 # 9 £7 616.65/15 000 (50.78%)
    Save 12K in 2016 # 8 £19 721.58/12 000 (164.35%) Achieved!
    • talexuser
    • By talexuser 11th Aug 17, 12:07 PM
    • 2,220 Posts
    • 1,672 Thanks
    talexuser
    Nothing.
    Originally posted by darkidoe
    So no gains either, and we're all agreed that continuing that performance year after year is highly unlikely.
    • dividendhero
    • By dividendhero 11th Aug 17, 1:13 PM
    • 35 Posts
    • 18 Thanks
    dividendhero
    you're 60% gains pa will turn £1,000 into over £12,000,000 in 20 years - you think that's possible?
    • Malthusian
    • By Malthusian 11th Aug 17, 2:29 PM
    • 2,582 Posts
    • 3,674 Thanks
    Malthusian
    HSBC has today signalled a higher chance of a correction in the markets at the end of the year
    Originally posted by thegrind
    Corrections (falls of 10% or more) happen pretty frequently so that's not the boldest of predictions. Remember the Great Correction of 2015? No? Me neither.

    Could this correction if it happens this year be the start of a recession next year? Who knows
    Other way around is far more likely. Speculators lag reality, not vice versa.
    • fiisch
    • By fiisch 11th Aug 17, 11:34 PM
    • 118 Posts
    • 37 Thanks
    fiisch
    you're 60% gains pa will turn £1,000 into over £12,000,000 in 20 years - you think that's possible?
    Originally posted by dividendhero
    Please take my money....
    • darkidoe
    • By darkidoe 12th Aug 17, 4:13 AM
    • 815 Posts
    • 922 Thanks
    darkidoe
    So no gains either, and we're all agreed that continuing that performance year after year is highly unlikely.
    Originally posted by talexuser
    Yes highly improbable, virtually impossible but not wholely impossible... Hence I am not into it but people who buy the lottery does or people actively picking stocks do so and out of a few millions, one or two might do well.

    Save 12K in 2017 # 9 £7 616.65/15 000 (50.78%)
    Save 12K in 2016 # 8 £19 721.58/12 000 (164.35%) Achieved!
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