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  • FIRST POST
    • intowhere
    • By intowhere 9th Aug 17, 4:01 PM
    • 36Posts
    • 5Thanks
    intowhere
    60% return in 12 months - can it continue.
    • #1
    • 9th Aug 17, 4:01 PM
    60% return in 12 months - can it continue. 9th Aug 17 at 4:01 PM
    I've been mucking around investing small amounts in small cap shares. Doing nothing other than just following the advice of share tippers in the press and on various websites. Not doing any research myself just looking up the firm and buying. I purchase smallish amounts (£50 - £200). I've made a 60% return. However because I purchase small amounts of stock the trading expense is very high relative to what I am buying, although the 60% inc the cost of buying selling shres.

    A part of me things, why not just ramp it up, just buy as much as I can but I have a feeling this is all just luck; a few of the tips have been dire and I have lost 90% of their value, most havent moved but a few have really flown, but there is no logic of this; i am just dependant on how accurate the tippers are being.

    Are these people who are proving the tips doing some research or are they just pulling things out of the air for that people like me fall for them?
Page 2
    • sevenhills
    • By sevenhills 12th Aug 17, 10:05 AM
    • 757 Posts
    • 268 Thanks
    sevenhills
    I have bought shares over the past 20 years, I have never added up the gains and losses, but I believe I am in front

    I have bought Morrisons and Car Phone Warehouse numerous times, sold when they rose 30%-40% then bought again when they declined.
    I have also bought ones like SkyPharma and RBS ect where I lost over 50%
    I find it interesting though, perhaps I should try to work out my gains/losses? But since shares are higher now than 20 years ago

    • dividendhero
    • By dividendhero 12th Aug 17, 10:17 AM
    • 116 Posts
    • 92 Thanks
    dividendhero
    I find it interesting though, perhaps I should try to work out my gains/losses? But since shares are higher now than 20 years ago
    Originally posted by sevenhills
    Barclays stockbrokers have a very useful feature - they show how your portfolio has performed compared to the index (FTSE all share IIRC). I'm ussually about 2% ahead which i'm more than pleased with.

    I suspect most brokers don't offer this as most clients will find out they don't beat the market and will switch to low cost trackers - or am I being too cynical?
    • DiggerUK
    • By DiggerUK 12th Aug 17, 10:23 AM
    • 2,809 Posts
    • 2,698 Thanks
    DiggerUK
    If it feels too good to be true
    .......A part of me thinks, why not just ramp it up, just buy as much as I can but I have a feeling this is all just luck; a few of the tips have been dire and I have lost 90% of their value, most havent moved but a few have really flown, but there is no logic to this
    Originally posted by intowhere
    Its boom time my dear, and you don't realise that. The reasons for the rekindled boom are many and varied, but rhyme with what the boom that busted ten years ago were founded on.
    Time to do some research and find out. It seems you have had the common sense to realise that a magic fairy isn't sprinkling seeds from the money tree in your garden.
    You need to learn how to spot the signs of events going the other way. It's not rocket science. Next thing you know, someone's going to advise you to prepare for a crash and buy gold..._
    I am not now, nor have I ever been, a Financial Adviser.
    Forward, to the 'British Spring'
    • k6chris
    • By k6chris 12th Aug 17, 6:24 PM
    • 149 Posts
    • 232 Thanks
    k6chris
    I did some research into the profits / losses that Retail FX traders make and how that maps to random trading. A 60% return could be just one of the outcomes on a distribution curve of random trading. Bank the profits and try again. If you get another 60% in year 2, that's potential evidence that your results are more than just luck! If you lose 60%, well you still have the profits from the first year!

    Good luck!
    EatingSoup
    • Thrugelmir
    • By Thrugelmir 12th Aug 17, 7:42 PM
    • 56,196 Posts
    • 49,574 Thanks
    Thrugelmir
    But since shares are higher now than 20 years ago
    Originally posted by sevenhills
    Are they all? Some all still well short. BT for example are well off their peak price.
    “Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble”
    ― Warren Buffett
    • WobblyDog
    • By WobblyDog 13th Aug 17, 8:21 AM
    • 437 Posts
    • 281 Thanks
    WobblyDog
    You know statistically, if you flip a coin long enough, you WILL get 10 heads in a row. Maybe he is that 10 heads in the row.
    Originally posted by darkidoe
    I worry that there is a larger group of people who have followed a similar strategy, but chosen different stocks, and made substantial losses, but they won't be posting here.
    • darkidoe
    • By darkidoe 13th Aug 17, 6:17 PM
    • 896 Posts
    • 1,021 Thanks
    darkidoe
    I worry that there is a larger group of people who have followed a similar strategy, but chosen different stocks, and made substantial losses, but they won't be posting here.
    Originally posted by WobblyDog
    Yes that is a valid point. That's what's called Survival Bias. Only the successful stories are paraded around. No one listens to the people who fail or struggle.

    I wholely recommend this book: The Art of Thinking Clearly to help point out useful concepts to help with investing or just generally in life.

    Save 12K in 2017 # 9 £11,119.65/15 000 (74%)
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