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  • FIRST POST
    • MSE Eesha
    • By MSE Eesha 20th Nov 17, 12:59 PM
    • 93Posts
    • 22Thanks
    MSE Eesha
    Premium Bond rate boosted from 1.15% to 1.4% should you pile in?
    • #1
    • 20th Nov 17, 12:59 PM
    Premium Bond rate boosted from 1.15% to 1.4% should you pile in? 20th Nov 17 at 12:59 PM
    This is the discussion to link on the back of Martin's blog. Please read the blog first, as this discussion follows it.





    Please click 'post reply' to discuss below.
Page 1
    • robin58
    • By robin58 20th Nov 17, 11:57 PM
    • 2,058 Posts
    • 2,179 Thanks
    robin58
    • #2
    • 20th Nov 17, 11:57 PM
    • #2
    • 20th Nov 17, 11:57 PM
    Well this year have definitely won 25 4 times this year (think I may have a 5th but not sure on that).

    3 of those were in consecutive months.

    All this on a holding of 7k.
    The more I live, the more I learn.
    The more I learn, the more I grow.
    The more I grow, the more I see.
    The more I see, the more I know.
    The more I know, the more I see,
    How little I know.!!
    • Dazzzzer
    • By Dazzzzer 22nd Nov 17, 1:17 AM
    • 1 Posts
    • 1 Thanks
    Dazzzzer
    • #3
    • 22nd Nov 17, 1:17 AM
    premium bonds, not big winners...so far
    • #3
    • 22nd Nov 17, 1:17 AM
    hi, thanks for the facts on these, i feared all you say to be the case, holding 50k and me personally winning only approx 350 a year, so although i haven't worked it out exactly, is under the 1.4%. the trouble is for me is the 'what if....' scenario, i could move it to attract a higher guaranteed rate, but i also think, if i risk not making quite so much then i am constantly in with a chance of winning something substantial. of course, this is pretty slim odds, but i keep on hoping, lol.

    great website, you have saved and made me a tidy sum over the years, ive come to see it as my 'go to' place for all advice, what ever you say now, i act on, and i've not known you never been wrong yet. so thanks.
    • Bootle Boy
    • By Bootle Boy 22nd Nov 17, 9:15 AM
    • 1 Posts
    • 1 Thanks
    Bootle Boy
    • #4
    • 22nd Nov 17, 9:15 AM
    Max
    • #4
    • 22nd Nov 17, 9:15 AM
    I have the max having built it up over many years and I have "won" 550 in the last 12 months.
    • keensave
    • By keensave 22nd Nov 17, 10:32 AM
    • 3 Posts
    • 1 Thanks
    keensave
    • #5
    • 22nd Nov 17, 10:32 AM
    Still waiting
    • #5
    • 22nd Nov 17, 10:32 AM
    I won a 1 premium bond as third prize in a competition when I was about 12. Enthused by the possibility of winning I bought another from saved pocket money.
    1 in the 60s bought a lot more than it does today, so as inflation ate away at their value I was faced with cashing them in to cut my losses or hanging on to hope for a win. I decided that the 2 was worth so little that I might as well hang on.
    After 50 odd years I am still hanging.
    • REJP
    • By REJP 22nd Nov 17, 12:10 PM
    • 26 Posts
    • 32 Thanks
    REJP
    • #6
    • 22nd Nov 17, 12:10 PM
    • #6
    • 22nd Nov 17, 12:10 PM
    Why are people complaining that they have one bond and never won a prize? Have they not realised that they only have a one in seventy BILLION chance of winning?
    By saving money directly from my bank account over many years, and by re-investing all wins under 5000 , I have managed to build a total of 30,000. Since April this year I have received 11 prizes of 25, one of 50, and one of 100.
    Last month the single 1 bond given to me as a wedding present in 1957, one of the first issued, won 25. So older bonds do sometimes win.
    Good luck to everyone, hope you have a great win.
    • Krispduck
    • By Krispduck 22nd Nov 17, 12:33 PM
    • 1 Posts
    • 0 Thanks
    Krispduck
    • #7
    • 22nd Nov 17, 12:33 PM
    Premium Bond Performance
    • #7
    • 22nd Nov 17, 12:33 PM
    Varying investment in bonds held over recent years, but these were the returns

    2013-2014 150
    2014-2015 175
    2015-2016 225
    2016-2017 775
    2017-2018 325 Year To Date
    • polymaff
    • By polymaff 22nd Nov 17, 12:51 PM
    • 1,841 Posts
    • 791 Thanks
    polymaff
    • #8
    • 22nd Nov 17, 12:51 PM
    • #8
    • 22nd Nov 17, 12:51 PM
    On a large holding a reasonable guide is 90% of the declared rate - so for 1.4% declared, you get 1.26%. Rationale: 10% of the prize fund goes to "you die before you win" prizes.
    • Huge Pimms
    • By Huge Pimms 22nd Nov 17, 2:51 PM
    • 1 Posts
    • 0 Thanks
    Huge Pimms
    • #9
    • 22nd Nov 17, 2:51 PM
    I'm getting 2.45% return on PBs
    • #9
    • 22nd Nov 17, 2:51 PM
    In the last 16 months we have 'won' 3,275 on 100k of PBs which gives a yearly rate of return of 2.45%

    I wonder if it is statistically significant (i.e. improves your 'luck') that we seem to be 'winning' more now that we have 2 sets of 50k continuous bond numbers? (we cashed our collection of various sized bonds 16 months ago and then bought the full 50k each to get continuous bond numbers)

    We have had PBs in various sizes for at least a decade and the general return has always been around the PB prize fund interest rate.
    • lovefuchsias
    • By lovefuchsias 22nd Nov 17, 3:46 PM
    • 2 Posts
    • 0 Thanks
    lovefuchsias
    My husband and I both have the maximum allowed premium bonds each. Every month we win an average of 125 between us.[1500 a year] All of these winnings are multiples of 25 wins. We are happy with this return and there is always the chance that we could win a larger amount.
    • lovefuchsias
    • By lovefuchsias 22nd Nov 17, 3:48 PM
    • 2 Posts
    • 0 Thanks
    lovefuchsias
    I think that there is some truth in the consectative numbers theory. My husband and I did the same as you and it has also worked in our favour too.
    • qwert yuiop
    • By qwert yuiop 22nd Nov 17, 3:56 PM
    • 2,177 Posts
    • 1,273 Thanks
    qwert yuiop
    Consecutive numbers have no bearing on the winnings. Its random.

    Years ago, they used to announce after the radio news where the winner was. It often seemed to be Essex. This caused people to go to Essex to buy bonds, also pointless.
    • qwert yuiop
    • By qwert yuiop 22nd Nov 17, 3:58 PM
    • 2,177 Posts
    • 1,273 Thanks
    qwert yuiop
    Here’s something to think about ( for 2 seconds). Which is more likely to win the lottery - 1,2,3,4,5,6 or a random selection?
    • Cactus_Jack
    • By Cactus_Jack 22nd Nov 17, 6:45 PM
    • 559 Posts
    • 75 Thanks
    Cactus_Jack
    I've cashed my Santander 123 account in and gone in on Premium Bonds. I made sure to tell Santander I was leaving due to the cut in their rates too.

    Here is to winning!
    Last edited by Cactus_Jack; 22-11-2017 at 7:25 PM.
    • AstUte
    • By AstUte 22nd Nov 17, 7:53 PM
    • 1 Posts
    • 0 Thanks
    AstUte
    Work on them to win
    You can win if you do the work. First, not all bonds have an equal chance of winning. I have 20 years of records to prove that fact. In the same number of years, one 5000 block can have wins many many times, where as another 5000 block may only have one or two wins. So cash in and repurchase often. Therefore, the way to win is keep records of every bond, every win each block has, and every date each block of bonds are bought or sold. My return for 2015 was 4.25%. 2016 was 5.85% and this year depending on the Dec draw now stands at 4.61%.
    • qwert yuiop
    • By qwert yuiop 22nd Nov 17, 8:21 PM
    • 2,177 Posts
    • 1,273 Thanks
    qwert yuiop
    You can win if you do the work. First, not all bonds have an equal chance of winning. I have 20 years of records to prove that fact. In the same number of years, one 5000 block can have wins many many times, where as another 5000 block may only have one or two wins. So cash in and repurchase often. Therefore, the way to win is keep records of every bond, every win each block has, and every date each block of bonds are bought or sold. My return for 2015 was 4.25%. 2016 was 5.85% and this year depending on the Dec draw now stands at 4.61%.
    Originally posted by AstUte
    So its not random? So its all a big swindle? And no one in the last, oh, sixty years or so has ever taken them to task on this?

    Lets organise a crowd funded legal action against National Savings - theyve been duping us all for years with this lie that all bonds are created equal, when its all one huge fraud.
    Isnt it?
    Last edited by qwert yuiop; 22-11-2017 at 10:07 PM.
    • Wizard of Id
    • By Wizard of Id 22nd Nov 17, 8:43 PM
    • 2,762 Posts
    • 10,752 Thanks
    Wizard of Id
    Consecutive numbers have no bearing on the winnings. Its random.

    Years ago, they used to announce after the radio news where the winner was. It often seemed to be Essex. This caused people to go to Essex to buy bonds, also pointless.
    Originally posted by qwert yuiop
    Winners in Essex just means that there are more bond owners from there and people going to buy bonds there, as you say, matters not a jot as it will be the area where the owner lives that is announced and not where they were bought.

    I have held some of my bonds for almost 40 years and never won from them but I have won a grand total of 50 from others bought only 20 years ago.
    Every man is innocent until proven broke.
    Cryin won't help you, prayin won't do you no good.

    Keep Moving in 2018 Challenge - Target 3333 miles
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    • Grampsie
    • By Grampsie 22nd Nov 17, 10:58 PM
    • 1 Posts
    • 0 Thanks
    Grampsie
    Percentage return
    Remembering back to my A-level statistics course (a very long time ago!), all that matters is the average return.

    The vast majority of 1 bonds will win nothing, therefore 0%. A very small minority will win a massive amount, including prizes of up 1 million, and so a massive %age return.

    If you take these all into account the average return from December is 1.4%, a little above the best instant access rate I believe.

    The more bonds you hold the closer to the 1.4% average you're likely to be.

    In all cases you can get back your original capital at any time.

    This is not the case with the National Lottery.

    Also Wikipedia states "Of all money spent on National Lottery games, 50% goes to the prize fund, 28% to "good causes" as set out by Parliament (though some of this is considered by some to be a form of "stealth tax" levied to support the Big Lottery Fund, a fund constituted to support public spending), 12% to the UK Government as duty, 5% to retailers as commission, and a total of 5% to operator Camelot, with 4.5% to cover operating costs and 0.5% as profit."

    Personally, if I were to get some money to invest I'd prefer to invest it in Premium Bonds and give money to charities of my choice.
    • qwert yuiop
    • By qwert yuiop 23rd Nov 17, 6:20 AM
    • 2,177 Posts
    • 1,273 Thanks
    qwert yuiop
    So cash in and repurchase often..
    Originally posted by AstUte
    Amazingly bad advice. Bonds have to be held for a calendar month before becoming part of the draw. Every time you cash in and repurchase, youll miss out on at least a months worth of draws.
    • chamelion
    • By chamelion 23rd Nov 17, 10:43 AM
    • 165 Posts
    • 150 Thanks
    chamelion
    Well this year have definitely won 25 4 times this year (think I may have a 5th but not sure on that).

    3 of those were in consecutive months.

    All this on a holding of 7k.
    Originally posted by robin58
    So you've received 100 on a 7000 investment?

    Let's say you got it into some 3% accounts. That's 210. If you're a higher rate tax payer, that's 126.

    Basically you need to win at least once more to make as much as you'd make on a 3% account.

    Is it really worth it?
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