Recession’ll end soon: The joy of maths Blog Discussion

This is the discussion to link on the back of Martin's blog. Please read the blog first, as this discussion follows it.

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  • Errata
    Errata Posts: 38,230
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    The most powerful tool in a politicians toolbox? Lies, damn lies and statistics.
    .................:)....I'm smiling because I have no idea what's going on ...:)
  • JimmyTheWig
    JimmyTheWig Posts: 12,199
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    Maths is a joy at all times, not just for political spin. But I don't quite get your point on this one, Martin.
    Surely what is important is the question "are things getting better or getting worse?" GDP going from £961b to £962b means things are getting getting better, so I'm happy to say the recession had ended.
    If a football team is on a losing streak then win a game I would say their losing streak had finished. The fact that they are still further down the table than when their losing streak started doesn't really come in to it.

    I certainly take your point about the two successive quarters business. The economy could be shrinking every half-year and still not be in "recession". But I guess that's pretty unlikely.
  • You never know you are / were in a recession until the figures come out afterwards :)
  • MSE_Martin
    MSE_Martin Posts: 8,272
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    Maths is a joy at all times, not just for political spin. But I don't quite get your point on this one, Martin.
    Surely what is important is the question "are things getting better or getting worse?" GDP going from £961b to £962b means things are getting getting better, so I'm happy to say the recession had ended.
    If a football team is on a losing streak then win a game I would say their losing streak had finished. The fact that they are still further down the table than when their losing streak started doesn't really come in to it.

    I certainly take your point about the two successive quarters business. The economy could be shrinking every half-year and still not be in "recession". But I guess that's pretty unlikely.

    I see your question.

    My point is recession in common parlance and recession in technical definition differ. So when most people here "the recession is over" that conjures images of things being back to the good times. It doesn't it just means as you say, thing have stopped getting worse.

    I may go and tweak my blog for clarity.
    Martin Lewis, Money Saving Expert.
    Please note, answers don't constitute financial advice, it is based on generalised journalistic research. Always ensure any decision is made with regards to your own individual circumstance.
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  • Darn it, I was going to post something similar and so precise that Evan Davies would demand I go on the Today programme and Martin would give me loads of free stuff as I had advertsied the site brilliantly.

    Sadly my computer shut down.

    Suffice to say I was going to say that recession terms isnt maths but an economic statement. Maybe the blog could be titled the joy of economics? - Dsylexic pendants of the world untie!


    Course the gvmts whole plan for the good times to come back. A 2% growth rate in two years time! Very worrying. Martin is just reminding us that in two years time its probably going to look a lot worse.
    Unsecured Debt [STRIKE]11,000 ish [/STRIKE]Feb 08 ok honestly more or less 12,000 and no more Credit available

    Dec 09 4,100ish -waiting for the credit card bill,
    I look forward to getting the bill through the post now.
  • ampersand
    ampersand Posts: 9,555
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    :D '- Dsylexic pendants of the world untie!' -
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    Enjoyed.:D

    (But I suppose someone will tut-tut, re: 'chuckling at' vs 'chuckling with')
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  • meester
    meester Posts: 1,879 Forumite
    MSE_Martin wrote: »
    I see your question.

    My point is recession in common parlance and recession in technical definition differ. So when most people here "the recession is over" that conjures images of things being back to the good times. It doesn't it just means as you say, thing have stopped getting worse.

    I may go and tweak my blog for clarity.

    You could do that, or you could forget the technicalities, and instead consider the likelier reason: that the government are utterly clueless.

    For the laughs:
    http://www.direct.gov.uk/en/Nl1/Newsroom/DG_070832

    2007 Pre-Budget Report
    • Published: Tuesday, 9 October 2007
    dg_070824.jpg
    The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Alistair Darling, presented the Pre-Budget Report and the outcome of the Comprehensive Spending Review to the House of Commons today.

    Economic growth

    Reflecting the assumed impact of financial market disruption, the 2007 Pre-Budget Report economic forecast is for GDP growth of 3 per cent in 2007, slowing to 2 to 2.5 per cent in 2008, before strengthening to trend at 2.5 to 3 per cent in 2009 and 2010.

    :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:
  • Gasman2
    Gasman2 Posts: 27 Forumite
    It simply means things have stopped getting any worse.

    Surely that's really the whole point of it though?

    Once things are no longer getting worse people's confidence will start to build. If they have survived financially until then, they will believe they will be OK now that things 'aren't getting any worse'.
  • JimmyTheWig
    JimmyTheWig Posts: 12,199
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    I agree, Gasman2. It sounds as though you are looking at it from the same angle as I am.
  • hethmar
    hethmar Posts: 10,678
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    Its the half full/half empty glass syndrome :)

    I agree with you two guys, not getting worse, means some stability.
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